01 · Ohio's case
No matchup to cite
There are not enough rated offense and defense numbers last season to compare Ohio and Sacramento State.
See when each team has the ballSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Ohio
4–2
at
Sacramento State
1–5
10:00 PM ET7:00 PM PTHornet StadiumSacramento, CA
Weather
Clear77°FW 3 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM PT · Updated 11:31 AM PT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Sacramento · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear77°FW 3 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
78%
Ohio win probability
Sacramento State 22%
Ohio by 12.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±16.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · What could swing it
Small samples behind these numbers
Completed games last season: Ohio 13, Sacramento State 1.
See the evidence windowNot enough evidence yet
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Ohio has the ball
- Ohio offense
- 71st
- Sacramento State defense
- Not rated
Show the underlying numbers
- Ohio offensive per play
- 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
- Sacramento State PPA allowed per play
- Not rated
- Ohio
- 45%71st percentile · #40 nationally
- Sacramento State success rate allowed
- Not rated
- Ohio points per game
- 27.851st percentile · #67 nationally
- Sacramento State per game
- Not rated
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Ohio offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.22
- Rush success
- 48.2%
Sacramento State defense · 2025 season · Last 1 game · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.22
- Rush success allowed
- 45.8%
When Sacramento State has the ball
- Sacramento State offense
- Not rated
- Ohio defense
- 59th
Show the underlying numbers
- Sacramento State offensive PPA per play
- Not rated
- Ohio PPA allowed per play
- 0.1259th percentile · #54 nationally
- Sacramento State success rate
- Not rated
- Ohio success rate allowed
- 41%55th percentile · #62 nationally
- Sacramento State points per game
- Not rated
- Ohio points allowed per game
- 21.970th percentile · #42 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Sacramento State offense · 2025 season · No game stats from the last game · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- not available
- Rush success
- not available
Ohio defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.25
- Rush success allowed
- 41.2%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Parker Navarro · 97% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 43%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 121 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 8.2
- over 118 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 63%
- over 118 attempts with a result
279 of 290 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 236 short · 43 deep · 11 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Ohio offense in 2025
Parker Navarro
QB · 13 games
188/303 · 62% season
- Passing yards
- 2,375
- Touchdowns
- 14
- Interceptions
- 11
Last game
UNLV · Dec 23, 2025: 11/15, 143 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
Sieh Bangura
RB · 13 games
- Carries
- 240
- Rushing yards
- 1,392
- Touchdowns
- 15
Last game
UNLV · Dec 23, 2025: 19 carries, 149 yds, 1 TD
Chase Hendricks
WR · 12 games
- Receptions
- 71
- Receiving yards
- 1,037
- Touchdowns
- 7
Last game
UNLV · Dec 23, 2025: 4 rec, 87 yds, 0 TD
Ohio player tables
Who is producing
Ohio player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker NavarroQB | 13 | 188 / 303 | 2,375 | 7.8 | 14 | 11 |
| Nick PoulosQB | 1 | 4 / 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Sacramento State player tables
Who is producing
Sacramento State player production
2025 evidence · 1 games in this window · 0 with recorded rows in this view
No player rows in this evidence window report this category.
In the trenches
Ohio's line averages 296.8 lbs against Sacramento State's 285.6 lbs front — an edge of 11.2 lbs a man.
Ohio's line average is based on 25 of 26 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio OLOhio OL vs Sacramento State DL | 296.8 lbs | 285.6 lbs |
| Sacramento State OLSacramento State OL vs Ohio DL | 309.6 lbs | 258.8 lbs |
- Ohio
- Sacramento State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Ohio
- Points per game
- 27.8#67 nationally · 51st percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 21.9#42 nationally · 70th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 65% of 2024 PPA returns · 67th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 52% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Sacramento State
not rated
Recruiting
Ohio
- 2025 signing class · #121 nationally
- 11th percentile · 115.4 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #116 nationally
- 15th percentile · −0.87 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #126 nationally
- 6th percentile · 470.0
Sacramento State
not rated
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Ohio Offense · SP+ 2025: 23.2, 27th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Sacramento State Offense · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Ohio Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.2, 56th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Sacramento State Defense · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Ohio Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.9, 4th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Sacramento State Special teams · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Ohio Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 115.4 pts, 11th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Sacramento State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: not rated (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Ohio Experience · returning production 2025: 65% returning, 67th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Sacramento State Experience · returning production 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Ohio: solid line, circles
Ohio
- Offense · 2025
- 23.2 · 27th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 25.2 · 56th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −1.9 · 4th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 115.4 pts · 11th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 65% returning · 67th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Sacramento State
not rated
Ohio's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 23
vs UNLV · neutral site
W 17–10
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 78 recorded plays
at Buffalo
W 31–26
49%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 18 · 65 recorded plays
vs Massachusetts
W 42–14
49%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Ohio
- Head coach
John Hauser
no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
Scott Isphording
career +24.6 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Kurt Mattix
career +24.6 SP+ defense
Sacramento State
- Head coach
Alonzo Carter
no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
- Not on file
Head-to-head
No meetings since 2000
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Ohio: 13 games
- Sacramento State: 1 game
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD