Saturday, October 17

West Virginia

3–3

Cincinnati

4–1

12:00 PM ETMilan Puskar StadiumMorgantown, WV

Weather

Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:21 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Morgantown · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

45%

West Virginia win probability

Cincinnati 55%

Cincinnati by 2.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · West Virginia's case

West Virginia's offense leads its matchup in scoring

West Virginia's offense is in the 77th percentile for points per game this season. Cincinnati's defense is in the 53rd percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Cincinnati's answer

Cincinnati's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Cincinnati's offense is in the 85th percentile for per play this season. West Virginia's defense is in the 12th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives West Virginia a 45% chance to win and predicts Cincinnati by 2.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When West Virginia has the ball

West Virginia offense: 46th
Cincinnati defense: 28th

Show the underlying numbers

West Virginia offensive PPA per play: 0.1446th percentile · #71 nationally
Cincinnati PPA allowed per play: 0.1328th percentile · #95 nationally
West Virginia: 43%47th percentile · #73 nationally
Cincinnati success rate allowed: 43%26th percentile · #103 nationally
West Virginia points per game: 36.377th percentile · #32 nationally
Cincinnati points allowed per game: 23.253rd percentile · #66 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

West Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 46.3%

Cincinnati defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 49.8%

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati offense: 85th
West Virginia defense: 12th

Show the underlying numbers

Cincinnati offensive PPA per play: 0.2985th percentile · #19 nationally
West Virginia PPA allowed per play: 0.2012th percentile · #120 nationally
Cincinnati success rate: 46%67th percentile · #46 nationally
West Virginia success rate allowed: 46%12th percentile · #122 nationally
Cincinnati points per game: 33.865th percentile · #49 nationally
West Virginia points allowed per game: 32.79th percentile · #124 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Cincinnati offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.35
Rush success: 44.2%

West Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.32
Rush success allowed: 42.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Michael Hawkins Jr. · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 38 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.9; over 38 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 45%; over 38 attempts with a result

87 of 88 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 56 short · 31 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 13.5 over 22 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The West Virginia offense in 2026

Michael Hawkins Jr.

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

58/111 · 52% season

Passing yards: 1,055
Touchdowns: 7
Interception: 1

Last game

Arizona · Oct 10, 2026: 11/28, 219 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Cam Cook

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 153
Rushing yards: 793
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Arizona · Oct 10, 2026: 34 carries, 141 yds, 2 TD

DJ Epps

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 14
Receiving yards: 393
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Iowa State · Oct 3, 2026: 4 rec, 114 yds, 1 TD

West Virginia player tables

Who is producing

West Virginia player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

West Virginia — Passing production
Player
Michael Hawkins Jr.QB	6	58 / 111	1,055	9.5	7	1
Scotty Fox Jr.QB	1	2 / 4	27	6.8	0	0
Jyron HughleyQB	1	1 / 1	27	27.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Cincinnati player tables

Who is producing

Cincinnati player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Cincinnati — Passing production
Player
JC FrenchQB	5	86 / 123	949	7.7	6
Liam O'BrienQB	1	5 / 5	18	3.6	0
Samaj JonesQB	1	2 / 2	9	4.5	0
Malachi HenryWR	1	1 / 1	8	8.0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

West Virginia's line averages 301.3 lbs against Cincinnati's 273.5 lbs front — an edge of 27.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
West Virginia OLWest Virginia OL vs Cincinnati DL	301.3 lbs	273.5 lbs
Cincinnati OLCincinnati OL vs West Virginia DL	309.0 lbs	272.1 lbs

West Virginia
Cincinnati

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

West Virginia

Points per game: 36.3#32 nationally · 77th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 32.7#124 nationally · 9th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 18th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 123 of 123 with a class year

Cincinnati

Points per game: 33.8#49 nationally · 65th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 23.2#66 nationally · 53rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 8% of 2025 PPA returns · 11th percentile
Upperclassmen: 60% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

West Virginia

2026 signing class · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 229.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #33 nationally: 77th percentile · 0.51 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #49 nationally: 65th percentile · 707.6

Cincinnati

2026 signing class · #58 nationally: 58th percentile · 199.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #60 nationally: 57th percentile · 0.08 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #77 nationally: 45th percentile · 634.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

West Virginia: solid line, circles · Cincinnati: dashed line, squares

West Virginia

Offense · 2026: 32.1 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 32.9 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 229.5 pts · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 18th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Cincinnati

Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.6 · 72nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.5 · 46th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 199.9 pts · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

West Virginia's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 105 recorded plays
vs Arizona
L 31–52
37%
Success rate
−0.10
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 64 recorded plays
at Iowa State
L 42–45
45%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 87 recorded plays
vs Oklahoma State
L 24–41
44%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play

The coaching staff

West Virginia

Head coach: Rich Rodriguez
career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: WVU Athletics Communication, CC0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Zac Alley
career +24.6 SP+ defense
Photo: ULM Warhawks, CC BY-SA 3.0

Cincinnati

Head coach: Scott Satterfield
career +3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Nic Cardwell
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Pete Thomas
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Cortney Braswell
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.3 SP+ defense; Nate Woody
career +25.3 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

West Virginia leads 8–3 since 2000

2024 · West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 24
Nippert Stadium
2023 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 21
Milan Puskar Stadium
2011 · West Virginia 24, Cincinnati 21
2010 · West Virginia 37, Cincinnati 10
Milan Puskar Stadium
2009 · Cincinnati 24, West Virginia 21
Nippert Stadium
2008 · Cincinnati 26, West Virginia 23
Milan Puskar Stadium
2007 · West Virginia 28, Cincinnati 23
Nippert Stadium
2006 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 24
Milan Puskar Stadium
2005 · West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 0
Nippert Stadium
2003 · Cincinnati 15, West Virginia 13
Milan Puskar Stadium
2002 · West Virginia 35, Cincinnati 32
Nippert Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

West Virginia: 6 games
Cincinnati: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

West Virginia's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Cincinnati's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When West Virginia has the ball

West Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Cincinnati defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

West Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Michael Hawkins Jr.

Cam Cook

DJ Epps

West Virginia player production

Cincinnati player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

West Virginia

Cincinnati

Recruiting

West Virginia

Cincinnati

Season percentile profiles

West Virginia

Cincinnati

West Virginia's recent games

vs Arizona

at Iowa State

vs Oklahoma State

The coaching staff

West Virginia

Cincinnati

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources