Saturday, October 17

Arkansas

2–4

Vanderbilt

3–3

7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFirstBank StadiumNashville, TN

Weather

Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Nashville · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

32%

Arkansas win probability

Vanderbilt 68%

Vanderbilt by 6.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Arkansas's case

Arkansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Arkansas's offense was in the 87th percentile for per play last season. Vanderbilt's defense was in the 27th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Vanderbilt's answer

Vanderbilt's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Vanderbilt's offense was in the 100th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play last season. Arkansas's defense was in the 9th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Arkansas a 32% chance to win and predicts Vanderbilt by 6.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Arkansas has the ball

Arkansas offense: 87th
Vanderbilt defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Arkansas offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Vanderbilt PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Arkansas: 49%93rd percentile · #11 nationally
Vanderbilt success rate allowed: 42%47th percentile · #73 nationally
Arkansas points per game: 32.984th percentile · #23 nationally
Vanderbilt per game: 22.864th percentile · #47 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Arkansas offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 51.8%

Vanderbilt defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.34
Rush success allowed: 40.7%

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt offense: 100th
Arkansas defense: 9th

Show the underlying numbers

Vanderbilt offensive PPA per play: 0.41100th percentile · #1 nationally
Arkansas PPA allowed per play: 0.259th percentile · #123 nationally
Vanderbilt success rate: 50%97th percentile · #5 nationally
Arkansas success rate allowed: 46%9th percentile · #124 nationally
Vanderbilt points per game: 38.595th percentile · #8 nationally
Arkansas points allowed per game: 33.85th percentile · #129 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Vanderbilt offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.41
Rush success: 42.5%

Arkansas defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 48.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Taylen Green · 86% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 133 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.7; over 133 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 56%; over 133 attempts with a result

316 of 326 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 280 short · 36 deep · 10 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (42%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.3 over 89 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Arkansas offense in 2025

Taylen Green

QB · 12 games

198/326 · 61% season

Passing yards: 2,714
Touchdowns: 19
Interceptions: 11

Last game

Missouri · Nov 29, 2025: 6/13, 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Michael Washington

RB · 12 games

Carries: 168
Rushing yards: 1,068
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Missouri · Nov 29, 2025: 11 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD

O'Mega Blake

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 57
Receiving yards: 760
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Missouri · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 53 yds, 1 TD

Arkansas player tables

Who is producing

Arkansas player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Arkansas — Passing production
Player
Taylen GreenQB	12	198 / 326	2,714	8.3	19	11
KJ JacksonQB	5	33 / 54	441	8.2	3	0
Trever JacksonQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Vanderbilt player tables

Who is producing

Vanderbilt player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Vanderbilt — Passing production
Player
Diego PaviaQB	13	267 / 378	3,539	9.4	29	8
Blaze BerlowitzQB	6	9 / 17	131	7.7	1	0
Whit MuschampQB	1	2 / 3	40	13.3	0	0
Drew DickeyQB	1	1 / 2	28	14.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Arkansas's line averages 311.0 lbs against Vanderbilt's 279.5 lbs front — an edge of 31.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Arkansas OLArkansas OL vs Vanderbilt DL	311.0 lbs	279.5 lbs
Vanderbilt OLVanderbilt OL vs Arkansas DL	312.8 lbs	282.8 lbs

Arkansas
Vanderbilt

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Arkansas

Points per game: 32.9#23 nationally · 84th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 33.8#129 nationally · 5th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 36% of 2024 PPA returns · 32nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Vanderbilt

Points per game: 38.5#8 nationally · 95th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 22.8#47 nationally · 64th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 86% of 2024 PPA returns · 87th percentile
Upperclassmen: 64% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Arkansas

2025 signing class · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 219.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 0.69 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #23 nationally: 83rd percentile · 772.6

Vanderbilt

2025 signing class · #76 nationally: 44th percentile · 173.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #53 nationally: 61st percentile · 0.22 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #55 nationally: 59th percentile · 685.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Arkansas: solid line, circles · Vanderbilt: dashed line, squares

Arkansas

Offense · 2025: 35.8 · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 31.4 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.8 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 219.7 pts · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 36% returning · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Vanderbilt

Offense · SP+ 2025: 39.9 · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.4 · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.8 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 173.0 pts · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 86% returning · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Arkansas's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 56 recorded plays
vs Missouri
L 17–31
41%
Success rate
0.00
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 72 recorded plays
at Texas
L 37–52
43%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 55 recorded plays
at LSU
L 22–23
38%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Arkansas

Head coach: Ryan Silverfield
First season as Arkansas's head coach · career +5.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Inside Arkansas, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Cramsey
career +32.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Deron Wilson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.7 SP+ defense; Ron Roberts
career +25.7 SP+ defense

Vanderbilt

Head coach: Clark Lea
career −2.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Tim Beck
career +31.4 SP+ offense
Photo: Corkythehornetfan, CC BY-SA 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Steve Gregory
career +23.4 SP+ defense
Photo: Dirk Hansen from San Diego, CA. Cropped by User:Blueag9., CC BY 2.0

Head-to-head

Arkansas leads 3–2 since 2000

2018 · Vanderbilt 45, Arkansas 31
Razorback Stadium
2011 · Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 28
FirstBank Stadium
2010 · Arkansas 49, Vanderbilt 14
Razorback Stadium
2006 · Arkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
FirstBank Stadium
2005 · Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 24
Razorback Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Arkansas: 12 games
Vanderbilt: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Arkansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Vanderbilt's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Arkansas has the ball

Arkansas offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Vanderbilt defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Arkansas defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Taylen Green

Michael Washington

O'Mega Blake

Arkansas player production

Vanderbilt player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

Recruiting

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

Season percentile profiles

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

Arkansas's recent games

vs Missouri

at Texas

at LSU

The coaching staff

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources