Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Vanderbilt
3–3
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFirstBank StadiumNashville, TN
Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service
Nashville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
32%
Arkansas win probability
Vanderbilt 68%
Vanderbilt by 6.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Vanderbilt's case
Vanderbilt's defense is in the 34th percentile for allowed per play this season. Arkansas's offense is in the 13th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Arkansas's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Vanderbilt's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Vanderbilt a 68% chance to win and predicts Vanderbilt by 6.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
KJ Jackson · 72% of charted pass attempts
130 of 133 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 116 short · 14 deep · 3 not stated
The Arkansas offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
110/184 · 60% season
Last game
Tennessee · Oct 10, 2026: 15/27, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Last game
Tennessee · Oct 10, 2026: 11 carries, 40 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Tennessee · Oct 10, 2026: 7 rec, 56 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ JacksonQB | 6 | 110 / 184 | 1,193 | 6.5 | 7 | 4 |
| AJ HillQB | 2 | 16 / 28 | 181 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Monte HarrisonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | −5 | −5.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared CurtisQB | 5 | 82 / 130 | 968 | 7.4 | 5 | 5 |
| Blaze BerlowitzQB | 4 | 28 / 53 | 386 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Whit MuschampQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler EbelP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Arkansas's line averages 311.0 lbs against Vanderbilt's 279.5 lbs front — an edge of 31.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas OLArkansas OL vs Vanderbilt DL | 311.0 lbs | 279.5 lbs |
| Vanderbilt OLVanderbilt OL vs Arkansas DL | 312.8 lbs | 282.8 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Arkansas: solid line, circles · Vanderbilt: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 63 recorded plays
L 17–24
43%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 35 recorded plays
L 7–34
40%
Success rate
−0.18
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 76 recorded plays
W 34–6
41%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Ryan Silverfield
First season as Arkansas's head coach · career +5.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Inside Arkansas, CC BY 4.0
Tim Cramsey
career +32.2 SP+ offense
Deron Wilson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.7 SP+ defense
Ron Roberts
career +25.7 SP+ defense
Clark Lea
career −2.3 SP+ overall
Steve Gregory
career +23.4 SP+ defense
Photo: Dirk Hansen from San Diego, CA. Cropped by User:Blueag9., CC BY 2.0
2018 · Vanderbilt 45, Arkansas 31
Razorback Stadium
2011 · Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 28
FirstBank Stadium
2010 · Arkansas 49, Vanderbilt 14
Razorback Stadium
2006 · Arkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
FirstBank Stadium
2005 · Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 24
Razorback Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date