Saturday, October 17

Kent State

2–4

South Florida

4–2

7:00 PM ETRaymond James StadiumTampa, FL

Weather

Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 13 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Tampa · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Kent State win probability

South Florida 93%

South Florida by 20.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Kent State's case

No clear statistical strength for Kent State

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Kent State unit ranked well below the South Florida unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · South Florida's answer

South Florida's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Florida's offense was in the 97th percentile for points per game last season. Kent State's defense was in the 6th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Kent State a 7% chance to win and predicts South Florida by 20.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Kent State has the ball

Kent State offense: 13th
South Florida defense: 76th

Show the underlying numbers

Kent State offensive per play: 0.0713th percentile · #116 nationally
South Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.0876th percentile · #29 nationally
Kent State: 35%3rd percentile · #132 nationally
South Florida success rate allowed: 38%80th percentile · #28 nationally
Kent State points per game: 21.316th percentile · #115 nationally
South Florida points allowed per game: 23.461st percentile · #53 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Kent State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.34
Rush success: 37.6%

South Florida defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.50
Rush success allowed: 35.3%

When South Florida has the ball

South Florida offense: 87th
Kent State defense: 21st

Show the underlying numbers

South Florida offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Kent State PPA allowed per play: 0.2021st percentile · #100 nationally
South Florida success rate: 47%84th percentile · #22 nationally
Kent State success rate allowed: 44%21st percentile · #108 nationally
South Florida points per game: 40.597th percentile · #5 nationally
Kent State points allowed per game: 33.66th percentile · #128 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

South Florida offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 52.3%

Kent State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 42.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Dru DeShields · 82% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 109 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.5; over 107 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 53%; over 107 attempts with a result

240 of 243 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 197 short · 43 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Kent State offense in 2025

Dru DeShields

QB · 11 games

136/240 · 57% season

Passing yards: 2,030
Touchdowns: 18
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Northern Illinois · Nov 28, 2025: 11/22, 207 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Gavin Garcia

RB · 12 games

Carries: 146
Rushing yards: 647
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Northern Illinois · Nov 28, 2025: 24 carries, 151 yds, 1 TD

Wayne Harris

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 35
Receiving yards: 383
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Northern Illinois · Nov 28, 2025: 3 rec, 46 yds, 0 TD

Kent State player tables

Who is producing

Kent State player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Kent State — Passing production
Player
Dru DeshieldsQB	11	136 / 240	2,030	8.5	18	3
CJ MontesQB	2	10 / 19	140	7.4	1	1
Devin KargmanQB	2	8 / 17	74	4.4	0	1
Nolan GoodQB	2	5 / 10	38	3.8	0	0
Deante RuffinQB	1	2 / 3	44	14.7	0	0
Da'Realyst ClarkWR	2	2 / 2	39	19.5	1	0
Sebastian BrownWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

7 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

South Florida player tables

Who is producing

South Florida player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

South Florida — Passing production
Player
Byrum BrownQB	12	226 / 341	3,158	9.3	28	7
Gaston MooreQB	7	34 / 48	290	6.0	2	2
Locklan HewlettQB	2	7 / 12	90	7.5	1	1
Chase LeonP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1
Christian NeptuneWR	1	1 / 1	29	29.0	1	0
Nykahi DavenportRB	1	1 / 1	29	29.0	1	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Kent State's line averages 297.1 lbs against South Florida's 278.4 lbs front — an edge of 18.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Kent State OLKent State OL vs South Florida DL	297.1 lbs	278.4 lbs
South Florida OLSouth Florida OL vs Kent State DL	307.4 lbs	257.1 lbs

Kent State
South Florida

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Kent State

Points per game: 21.3#115 nationally · 16th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 33.6#128 nationally · 6th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 11% of 2024 PPA returns · 3rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 104 of 104 with a class year

South Florida

Points per game: 40.5#5 nationally · 97th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 23.4#53 nationally · 61st percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 96th percentile
Upperclassmen: 51% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Recruiting

Kent State

2025 signing class · #93 nationally: 32nd percentile · 155.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #106 nationally: 22nd percentile · −0.69 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #128 nationally: 5th percentile · 456.2

South Florida

2025 signing class · #65 nationally: 53rd percentile · 188.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #65 nationally: 53rd percentile · 0.05 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #61 nationally: 55th percentile · 666.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Kent State: solid line, circles · South Florida: dashed line, squares

Kent State

Offense · 2025: 17.0 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.9 · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 155.4 pts · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 11% returning · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

South Florida

Offense · SP+ 2025: 37.7 · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.3 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.8 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 188.8 pts · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Kent State's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 28 · 60 recorded plays
at Northern Illinois
W 35–31
48%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play
Nov 19 · 67 recorded plays
vs Central Michigan
L 16–28
36%
Success rate
0.07
PPA / play
Nov 11 · 48 recorded plays
at Akron
W 42–35
40%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Kent State

Head coach: Mark Carney
career −19.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Clay Patterson
career +14.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Cherokee Valeria
career +34.9 SP+ defense

South Florida

Head coach: Brian Hartline
First season as South Florida's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Beck
career +31.4 SP+ offense
Photo: WOSN, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Josh Aldridge
career +24.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Kent State: 12 games
South Florida: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Kent State

South Florida's offense leads its matchup in scoring

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Kent State has the ball

Kent State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

South Florida defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When South Florida has the ball

South Florida offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Kent State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Dru DeShields

Gavin Garcia

Wayne Harris

Kent State player production

South Florida player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Kent State

South Florida

Recruiting

Kent State

South Florida

Season percentile profiles

Kent State

South Florida

Kent State's recent games

at Northern Illinois

vs Central Michigan

at Akron

The coaching staff

Kent State

South Florida

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources