Saturday, October 17

Kent State

2–4

South Florida

4–2

7:00 PM ETRaymond James StadiumTampa, FL

Weather

Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 13 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Tampa · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Kent State win probability

South Florida 93%

South Florida by 20.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Kent State's case

No clear statistical strength for Kent State yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the Kent State unit ranks well below the South Florida unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · South Florida's answer

South Florida's defense leads its matchup in

South Florida's defense is in the 82nd percentile for points allowed per game this season. Kent State's offense is in the 1st percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Kent State a 7% chance to win and predicts South Florida by 20.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Kent State has the ball

Kent State offense: 6th
South Florida defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

Kent State offensive per play: −0.056th percentile · #130 nationally
South Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
Kent State: 33%3rd percentile · #134 nationally
South Florida success rate allowed: 43%28th percentile · #100 nationally
Kent State points per game: 13.71st percentile · #137 nationally
South Florida points allowed per game: 17.382nd percentile · #25 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Kent State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.32
Rush success: 30.4%

South Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 0.94
Rush success allowed: 45.5%

When South Florida has the ball

South Florida offense: 57th
Kent State defense: 15th

Show the underlying numbers

South Florida offensive PPA per play: 0.1857th percentile · #54 nationally
Kent State PPA allowed per play: 0.1815th percentile · #114 nationally
South Florida success rate: 48%75th percentile · #35 nationally
Kent State success rate allowed: 47%7th percentile · #128 nationally
South Florida points per game: 26.236th percentile · #88 nationally
Kent State points allowed per game: 32.511th percentile · #123 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

South Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 48.4%

Kent State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 44.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Dru DeShields · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 52 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.2; over 52 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 52%; over 52 attempts with a result

116 of 120 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 97 short · 19 deep · 4 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (45%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.0 over 24 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Kent State offense in 2026

Dru DeShields

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

89/155 · 57% season

Passing yards: 975
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Western Michigan · Oct 10, 2026: 19/35, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Mason Blakemore

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 52
Rushing yards: 202
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Western Michigan · Oct 10, 2026: 13 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD

Wayne Harris

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 25
Receiving yards: 355
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Western Michigan · Oct 10, 2026: 11 rec, 164 yds, 0 TD

Kent State player tables

Who is producing

Kent State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Kent State — Passing production
Player
Dru DeshieldsQB	6	89 / 155	975	6.3	4	6
Nolan GoodQB	3	2 / 6	5	0.8	0	1
Deante RuffinQB	1	1 / 3	−1	−0.3	0	0
Ethan ThanthanavongQB	2	1 / 2	16	8.0	0	0
Da'Realyst ClarkWR	1	1 / 1	29	29.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

South Florida player tables

Who is producing

South Florida player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

South Florida — Passing production
Player
Michael Van Buren Jr.QB	6	93 / 152	1,073	7.1	5	0
Luke KromenhoekQB	2	2 / 4	21	5.3	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Kent State's line averages 297.1 lbs against South Florida's 278.4 lbs front — an edge of 18.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Kent State OLKent State OL vs South Florida DL	297.1 lbs	278.4 lbs
South Florida OLSouth Florida OL vs Kent State DL	307.4 lbs	257.1 lbs

Kent State
South Florida

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kent State

Points per game: 13.7#137 nationally · 1st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 32.5#123 nationally · 11th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 64% of 2025 PPA returns · 74th percentile
Upperclassmen: 30% · 111 of 111 with a class year

South Florida

Points per game: 26.2#88 nationally · 36th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 17.3#25 nationally · 82nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 13% of 2025 PPA returns · 13th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Kent State

2026 signing class · #122 nationally: 12th percentile · 162.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #114 nationally: 18th percentile · −0.75 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #130 nationally: 6th percentile · 522.8

South Florida

2026 signing class · #90 nationally: 35th percentile · 180.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #71 nationally: 49th percentile · −0.11 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #52 nationally: 63rd percentile · 703.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Kent State: solid line, circles · South Florida: dashed line, squares

Kent State

Offense · 2026: 12.2 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.3 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.5 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.2 pts · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 64% returning · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

South Florida

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.9 · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 180.1 pts · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 13% returning · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kent State's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 53 recorded plays
at Western Michigan
L 7–38
32%
Success rate
−0.04
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 68 recorded plays
vs Ohio
L 10–13
41%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 68 recorded plays
vs Ball State
W 26–13
34%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Kent State

Head coach: Mark Carney
career −19.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Clay Patterson
career +14.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Cherokee Valeria
career +34.9 SP+ defense

South Florida

Head coach: Brian Hartline
First season as South Florida's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Beck
career +31.4 SP+ offense
Photo: WOSN, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Josh Aldridge
career +24.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Kent State: 6 games
South Florida: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Kent State yet

South Florida's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Kent State has the ball

Kent State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

South Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When South Florida has the ball

South Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Kent State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Dru DeShields

Mason Blakemore

Wayne Harris

Kent State player production

South Florida player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Kent State

South Florida

Recruiting

Kent State

South Florida

Season percentile profiles

Kent State

South Florida

Kent State's recent games

at Western Michigan

vs Ohio

vs Ball State

The coaching staff

Kent State

South Florida

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

South Florida's defense leads its matchup in