Saturday, October 17

Alabama

5–1 · AP #6

Tennessee

5–1 · AP #14

3:30 PM ETNeyland StadiumKnoxville, TN

Weather

Clear61°FNE 14 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:26 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Knoxville · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear61°FNE 14 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

80%

Alabama win probability

Tennessee 20%

Alabama by 11.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Alabama's case

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in

Alabama's offense is in the 89th percentile for success rate this season. Tennessee's defense is in the 67th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Tennessee's answer

Tennessee has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Alabama's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Alabama a 80% chance to win and predicts Alabama by 11.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama offense: 95th
Tennessee defense: 91st

Show the underlying numbers

Alabama offensive per play: 0.3395th percentile · #7 nationally
Tennessee PPA allowed per play: −0.0891st percentile · #12 nationally
Alabama success rate: 50%89th percentile · #16 nationally
Tennessee success rate allowed: 38%67th percentile · #46 nationally
Alabama points per game: 44.299th percentile · #3 nationally
Tennessee per game: 15.587th percentile · #19 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.36
Rush success: 53.2%

Tennessee defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 41.3%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee offense: 64th
Alabama defense: 85th

Show the underlying numbers

Tennessee offensive PPA per play: 0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
Alabama PPA allowed per play: −0.0685th percentile · #16 nationally
Tennessee success rate: 45%64th percentile · #51 nationally
Alabama success rate allowed: 35%78th percentile · #31 nationally
Tennessee points per game: 34.768th percentile · #44 nationally
Alabama points allowed per game: 20.767th percentile · #45 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Tennessee offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.21
Rush success: 47.7%

Alabama defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.43
Rush success allowed: 31.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Keelon Russell · 80% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 50 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.8; over 50 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 70%; over 50 attempts with a result

109 of 111 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 91 short · 18 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Alabama offense in 2026

Keelon Russell

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

110/162 · 68% season

Passing yards: 1,599
Touchdowns: 12
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Georgia · Oct 10, 2026: 16/30, 185 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Daniel Hill

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 55
Rushing yards: 262
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Georgia · Oct 10, 2026: 4 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD

Ryan Williams

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 23
Receiving yards: 415
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Georgia · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 39 yds, 0 TD

Alabama player tables

Who is producing

Alabama player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Alabama — Passing production
Player
Keelon RussellQB	6	110 / 162	1,599	9.9	12	2
Austin MackQB	2	3 / 4	23	5.8	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Tennessee player tables

Who is producing

Tennessee player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Tennessee — Passing production
Player
Faizon BrandonQB	5	61 / 101	697	6.9	7	1
George MacIntyreQB	4	32 / 49	395	8.1	2	2
Ryan StaubQB	1	3 / 3	27	9.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Alabama's line averages 309.5 lbs against Tennessee's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 37.4 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Alabama OLAlabama OL vs Tennessee DL	309.5 lbs	272.1 lbs
Tennessee OLTennessee OL vs Alabama DL	317.9 lbs	292.1 lbs

Alabama
Tennessee

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Alabama

Points per game: 44.2#3 nationally · 99th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.7#45 nationally · 67th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 26% of 2025 PPA returns · 33rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Tennessee

Points per game: 34.7#44 nationally · 68th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 15.5#19 nationally · 87th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 35% of 2025 PPA returns · 41st percentile
Upperclassmen: 32% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Recruiting

Alabama

2026 signing class · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 303.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 2.28 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #4 nationally: 98th percentile · 973.5

Tennessee

2026 signing class · #8 nationally: 95th percentile · 290.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #8 nationally: 95th percentile · 1.82 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 885.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Alabama: solid line, circles · Tennessee: dashed line, squares

Alabama

Offense · 2026: 40.0 · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.8 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 26% returning · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Tennessee

Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.9 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 18.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 290.7 pts · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Alabama's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 61 recorded plays
vs Georgia
L 17–20
44%
Success rate
0.20
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 51 recorded plays
at Mississippi State
W 56–23
57%
Success rate
0.48
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 49 recorded plays
vs South Carolina
W 49–18
49%
Success rate
0.51
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Alabama

Head coach: Kalen DeBoer
career +12.9 SP+ overall
Photo: The University of Alabama, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Ryan Grubb
career +34.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Kane Wommack
career +21.6 SP+ defense; Maurice Linguist
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.6 SP+ defense

Tennessee

Head coach: Josh Heupel
career +18.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Joey Halzle
career +36.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Anthony Poindexter
Co-defensive coordinator · career +22.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Thomsonmg2000, CC0; Jim Knowles
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Alabama leads 19–7 since 2000

2025 · Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2024 · Tennessee 24, Alabama 17
Neyland Stadium
2023 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2022 · Tennessee 52, Alabama 49
Neyland Stadium
2021 · Alabama 52, Tennessee 24
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2020 · Alabama 48, Tennessee 17
Neyland Stadium
2019 · Alabama 35, Tennessee 13
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2018 · Alabama 58, Tennessee 21
Neyland Stadium
2017 · Alabama 45, Tennessee 7
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2016 · Alabama 49, Tennessee 10
Neyland Stadium
2015 · Alabama 19, Tennessee 14
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2014 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Neyland Stadium
2013 · Alabama 45, Tennessee 10
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2012 · Alabama 44, Tennessee 13
Neyland Stadium
2011 · Alabama 37, Tennessee 6
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2010 · Alabama 41, Tennessee 10
Neyland Stadium
2009 · Alabama 12, Tennessee 10
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2008 · Alabama 29, Tennessee 9
Neyland Stadium
2007 · Alabama 41, Tennessee 17
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2006 · Tennessee 16, Alabama 13
Neyland Stadium
2005 · Alabama 6, Tennessee 3
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2004 · Tennessee 17, Alabama 13
Neyland Stadium
2003 · Tennessee 51, Alabama 43
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2002 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 14
Neyland Stadium
2001 · Tennessee 35, Alabama 24
2000 · Tennessee 20, Alabama 10

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Alabama: 6 games
Tennessee: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Tennessee has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Tennessee defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Alabama defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Keelon Russell

Daniel Hill

Ryan Williams

Alabama player production

Tennessee player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Alabama

Tennessee

Recruiting

Alabama

Tennessee

Season percentile profiles

Alabama

Tennessee

Alabama's recent games

vs Georgia

at Mississippi State

vs South Carolina

The coaching staff

Alabama

Tennessee

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in