Saturday, October 17

Wisconsin

4–1

UCLA

5–0 · AP #12

7:30 PM ET4:30 PM PTRose BowlPasadena, CA

Weather

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 4:30 PM PT · Updated 1:02 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Pasadena · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

39%

Wisconsin win probability

UCLA 61%

UCLA by 3.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Wisconsin's case

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in

Wisconsin's defense was in the 72nd percentile for points allowed per game last season. UCLA's offense was in the 7th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · UCLA's answer

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in

UCLA's offense was in the 40th percentile for success rate last season. Wisconsin's defense was in the 16th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Wisconsin has spread its pass attempts

Wisconsin's leading passer threw 43% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense: 4th
UCLA defense: 6th

Show the underlying numbers

Wisconsin offensive per play: 0.024th percentile · #130 nationally
UCLA PPA allowed per play: 0.266th percentile · #125 nationally
Wisconsin success rate: 37%10th percentile · #122 nationally
UCLA success rate allowed: 50%1st percentile · #135 nationally
Wisconsin points per game: 12.81st percentile · #135 nationally
UCLA points allowed per game: 33.47th percentile · #127 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 30.9%

UCLA defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.17
Rush success allowed: 52.7%

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense: 30th
Wisconsin defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

UCLA offensive PPA per play: 0.1230th percentile · #93 nationally
Wisconsin PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
UCLA success rate: 41%40th percentile · #82 nationally
Wisconsin success rate allowed: 45%16th percentile · #115 nationally
UCLA points per game: 18.27th percentile · #125 nationally
Wisconsin points allowed per game: 21.672nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UCLA offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 44.9%

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.08
Rush success allowed: 46.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Hunter Simmons · 43% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 46 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.3; over 46 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 50%; over 46 attempts with a result

112 of 119 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 97 short · 15 deep · 7 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Wisconsin offense in 2025

Hunter Simmons

QB · 8 games

62/118 · 53% season

Passing yards: 664
Touchdowns: 2
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Minnesota · Nov 29, 2025: 12/19, 162 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Darrion Dupree

RB · 10 games

Carries: 83
Rushing yards: 363
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Minnesota · Nov 29, 2025: 12 carries, 51 yds, 0 TD

Vinny Anthony

WR · 10 games

Receptions: 31
Receiving yards: 391
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Minnesota · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 92 yds, 0 TD

Wisconsin player tables

Who is producing

Wisconsin player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Wisconsin — Passing production
Player
Hunter SimmonsQB	8	62 / 118	664	5.6	2	7
Danny O'NeilQB	6	61 / 90	635	7.1	5	5
Carter SmithQB	4	26 / 46	201	4.4	2	1
Billy EdwardsQB	2	7 / 16	113	7.1	0	0
Sean WestPK	1	1 / 1	24	24.0	0	0
Tyrell HenryWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

UCLA player tables

Who is producing

UCLA player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

UCLA — Passing production
Player
Nico IamaleavaQB	11	208 / 323	1,928	6.0	13	7
Luke DuncanQB	2	21 / 34	235	6.9	2	0
Mikey MatthewsWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Wisconsin's line averages 317.7 lbs against UCLA's 283.2 lbs front — an edge of 34.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs UCLA DL	317.7 lbs	283.2 lbs
UCLA OLUCLA OL vs Wisconsin DL	313.3 lbs	302.4 lbs

Wisconsin
UCLA

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Wisconsin

Points per game: 12.8#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 21.6#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 40% of 2024 PPA returns · 36th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 116 of 116 with a class year

UCLA

Points per game: 18.2#125 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 33.4#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 18th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Wisconsin

2025 signing class · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 227.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 0.70 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 763.2

UCLA

2025 signing class · #46 nationally: 67th percentile · 202.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #61 nationally: 56th percentile · 0.12 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #26 nationally: 81st percentile · 766.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Wisconsin: solid line, circles · UCLA: dashed line, squares

Wisconsin

Offense · 2025: 17.4 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.9 · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.9 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 227.2 pts · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 40% returning · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UCLA

Offense · SP+ 2025: 21.7 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.4 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.1 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 202.3 pts · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning · 18th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Wisconsin's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 55 recorded plays
at Minnesota
L 7–17
35%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 62 recorded plays
vs Illinois
W 27–10
39%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 44 recorded plays
at Indiana
L 7–31
27%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Wisconsin

Head coach: Luke Fickell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Apyanac, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense

UCLA

Head coach: Bob Chesney
First season as UCLA's head coach · career +9.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Dean Kennedy
career +32.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Colin Hitschler
career +16.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Wisconsin leads 1–0 since 2000

2000 · Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Wisconsin: 12 games
UCLA: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Wisconsin has spread its pass attempts

When each team has the ball

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UCLA defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Hunter Simmons

Darrion Dupree

Vinny Anthony

Wisconsin player production

UCLA player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Wisconsin

UCLA

Recruiting

Wisconsin

UCLA

Season percentile profiles

Wisconsin

UCLA

Wisconsin's recent games

at Minnesota

vs Illinois

at Indiana

The coaching staff

Wisconsin

UCLA

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in