Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1
at
UCLA
5–0 · AP #12
7:30 PM ET4:30 PM PTRose BowlPasadena, CA
Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 4:30 PM PT · Updated 1:02 PM PT · National Weather Service
Pasadena · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
39%
Wisconsin win probability
UCLA 61%
UCLA by 3.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Wisconsin's case
Wisconsin's defense is in the 97th percentile for allowed per play this season. UCLA's offense is in the 64th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · UCLA's answer
UCLA's defense is in the 97th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Wisconsin's offense is in the 24th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Wisconsin a 39% chance to win and predicts UCLA by 3.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Colton Joseph · 100% of charted pass attempts
117 of 122 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 106 short · 11 deep · 5 not stated
The Wisconsin offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
81/143 · 57% season
Last game
Michigan State · Oct 3, 2026: 9/20, 145 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Michigan State · Oct 3, 2026: 13 carries, 141 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Michigan State · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 32 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephQB | 5 | 81 / 143 | 1,132 | 7.9 | 10 | 5 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico IamaleavaQB | 5 | 72 / 116 | 982 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 |
| Ty DieffenbachQB | 1 | 3 / 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Madden IamaleavaQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Wisconsin's line averages 317.7 lbs against UCLA's 283.2 lbs front — an edge of 34.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs UCLA DL | 317.7 lbs | 283.2 lbs |
| UCLA OLUCLA OL vs Wisconsin DL | 313.3 lbs | 302.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Wisconsin: solid line, circles · UCLA: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
W 31–3
33%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 66 recorded plays
W 24–20
36%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 51 recorded plays
W 54–10
55%
Success rate
0.40
PPA / play
Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense
Bob Chesney
First season as UCLA's head coach · career +9.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Dean Kennedy
career +32.3 SP+ offense
Colin Hitschler
career +16.6 SP+ defense
2000 · Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20
Neutral site
Evidence window: 2026 season to date