Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1 · AP #16
at
LSU
4–2 · AP #22
12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTTiger Stadium (LA)Baton Rouge, LA
Clear72°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:57 PM CT · National Weather Service
Baton Rouge · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear72°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
25%
Mississippi State win probability
LSU 75%
LSU by 9.9
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · LSU's case
LSU's defense was in the 76th percentile for allowed per play last season. Mississippi State's offense was in the 39th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Mississippi State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against LSU's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives LSU a 75% chance to win and predicts LSU by 9.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.4 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Blake Shapen · 83% of charted pass attempts
295 of 303 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 257 short · 38 deep · 8 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (48%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.6 over 53 attempts with a result.
The Mississippi State offense in 2025
QB · 11 games
195/304 · 64% season
Last game
Missouri · Nov 15, 2025: 19/33, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
RB · 11 games
Last game
Wake Forest · Jan 2, 2026: 14 carries, 38 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Wake Forest · Jan 2, 2026: 4 rec, 80 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake ShapenQB | 11 | 195 / 304 | 2,436 | 8.0 | 15 | 8 |
| Kamario TaylorQB | 7 | 43 / 77 | 629 | 8.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Luke KromenhoekQB | 3 | 5 / 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett NussmeierQB | 9 | 194 / 288 | 1,927 | 6.7 | 12 | 5 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.QB | 7 | 94 / 151 | 1,010 | 6.7 | 8 | 2 |
| Zavion ThomasWR | 3 | 2 / 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ju'Juan JohnsonQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Mississippi State's line averages 323.2 lbs against LSU's 274.7 lbs front — an edge of 48.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State OLMississippi State OL vs LSU DL | 323.2 lbs | 274.7 lbs |
| LSU OLLSU OL vs Mississippi State DL | 305.7 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Mississippi State: solid line, circles · LSU: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Jan 2
L 29–43
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 75 recorded plays
L 19–38
35%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 76 recorded plays
L 27–49
37%
Success rate
−0.17
PPA / play
Zach Arnett
career +19.2 SP+ defense
Lane Kiffin
First season as LSU's head coach · career +15.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Charlie Weis Jr.
career +33.8 SP+ offense
Blake Baker
career +25.5 SP+ defense
Chris Kiffin
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.5 SP+ defense
2023 · LSU 41, Mississippi State 14
Davis Wade Stadium
2022 · LSU 31, Mississippi State 16
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2021 · LSU 28, Mississippi State 25
Davis Wade Stadium
2020 · Mississippi State 44, LSU 34
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2019 · LSU 36, Mississippi State 13
Davis Wade Stadium
2018 · LSU 19, Mississippi State 3
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2017 · Mississippi State 37, LSU 7
Davis Wade Stadium
2016 · LSU 23, Mississippi State 20
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2015 · LSU 21, Mississippi State 19
Davis Wade Stadium
2014 · Mississippi State 34, LSU 29
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2013 · LSU 59, Mississippi State 26
Davis Wade Stadium
2012 · LSU 37, Mississippi State 17
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2011 · LSU 19, Mississippi State 6
Davis Wade Stadium
2010 · LSU 29, Mississippi State 7
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2009 · LSU 30, Mississippi State 26
Davis Wade Stadium
2008 · LSU 34, Mississippi State 24
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2007 · LSU 45, Mississippi State 0
Davis Wade Stadium
2006 · LSU 48, Mississippi State 17
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2005 · LSU 37, Mississippi State 7
Davis Wade Stadium
2004 · LSU 51, Mississippi State 0
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2003 · LSU 41, Mississippi State 6
Davis Wade Stadium
2002 · LSU 31, Mississippi State 13
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2001 · LSU 42, Mississippi State 0
2000 · LSU 45, Mississippi State 38
Evidence window: 2025 full season