2026 Mississippi State vs 2026 LSU
Hypothetical
70% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Mississippi State Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts, 84th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 LSU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 272.7 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Mississippi State Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 LSU Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 29th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Mississippi State | 2026 LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2883rd percentile | 0.2681st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | −0.1093rd percentile |
| Points per game | 39.086th percentile5 games | 42.094th percentile6 games |
| per game | 28.020th percentile5 games | 18.577th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 80th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 94th percentile
Campus distance
255 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 LSU DL | 323.2 lbs | 274.7 lbs |
| 2026 LSU OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL | 305.7 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 LSU stuff rate 24.7%
2026 LSU line yards 3.09 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · LSU leads 21–3 since 2000
LSU has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Mississippi State 14–41 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2022 | Mississippi State 16–31 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2021 | Mississippi State 25–28 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2020 | Mississippi State 44–34 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2019 | Mississippi State 13–36 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2018 | Mississippi State 3–19 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2017 | Mississippi State 37–7 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2016 | Mississippi State 20–23 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2015 | Mississippi State 19–21 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2014 | Mississippi State 34–29 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2013 | Mississippi State 26–59 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2012 | Mississippi State 17–37 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2011 | Mississippi State 6–19 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2010 | Mississippi State 7–29 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2009 | Mississippi State 26–30 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2008 | Mississippi State 24–34 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2007 | Mississippi State 0–45 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2006 | Mississippi State 17–48 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2005 | Mississippi State 7–37 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2004 | Mississippi State 0–51 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2003 | Mississippi State 6–41 LSU | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2002 | Mississippi State 13–31 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2001 | Mississippi State 0–42 LSU | Mississippi State home |
| 2000 | Mississippi State 38–45 LSU | LSU home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jeff Lebby
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Zach Arnett
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lane Kiffin (First season as LSU's head coach)
OC
- Charlie Weis Jr.
- Joe Cox (co-OC)
career average +33.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 40th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.0 plays a game, 99th percentile)
DC
- Blake Baker
- Chris Kiffin (co-DC)
career average +25.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Mississippi State at LSU · October 17, 2026
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