Saturday, October 17

Utah

5–0 · AP #11

Colorado

2–3

10:15 PM ET8:15 PM MTFolsom FieldBoulder, CO

Weather

Clear58°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 8:15 PM MT · Updated 12:46 PM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Boulder · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear58°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

92%

Utah win probability

Colorado 8%

Utah by 20.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.7 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Utah's case

Utah's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Utah's offense was in the 98th percentile for points per game last season. Colorado's defense was in the 18th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Colorado's answer

No clear statistical strength for Colorado

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Colorado unit ranked well below the Utah unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Utah a 92% chance to win and predicts Utah by 20.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.7 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Utah has the ball

Utah offense: 99th
Colorado defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Utah offensive per play: 0.3599th percentile · #2 nationally
Colorado PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Utah: 50%96th percentile · #6 nationally
Colorado success rate allowed: 42%41st percentile · #81 nationally
Utah points per game: 41.398th percentile · #4 nationally
Colorado points allowed per game: 30.518th percentile · #112 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Utah offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.49
Rush success: 49.9%

Colorado defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.38
Rush success allowed: 44.3%

When Colorado has the ball

Colorado offense: 16th
Utah defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Colorado offensive PPA per play: 0.0816th percentile · #112 nationally
Utah PPA allowed per play: 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
Colorado success rate: 35%4th percentile · #130 nationally
Utah success rate allowed: 38%77th percentile · #32 nationally
Colorado points per game: 20.915th percentile · #116 nationally
Utah points allowed per game: 18.987th percentile · #17 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Colorado offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 34.2%

Utah defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 47.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Devon Dampier · 89% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 148 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.8; over 148 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 61%; over 148 attempts with a result

296 of 303 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 247 short · 49 deep · 7 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.2 over 46 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Utah offense in 2025

Devon Dampier

QB · 12 games

212/334 · 63% season

Passing yards: 2,490
Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Nebraska · Dec 31, 2025: 19/31, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Wayshawn Parker

RB · 13 games

Carries: 149
Rushing yards: 981
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Nebraska · Dec 31, 2025: 16 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD

Ryan Davis

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 62
Receiving yards: 725
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Nebraska · Dec 31, 2025: 5 rec, 66 yds, 0 TD

Utah player tables

Who is producing

Utah player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Utah — Passing production
Player
Devon DampierQB	12	212 / 334	2,490	7.5	24	5
Byrd FicklinQB	6	21 / 35	301	8.6	3	0
Isaac WilsonQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Orion PhillipsP	1	1 / 1	25	25.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Colorado player tables

Who is producing

Colorado player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Colorado — Passing production
Player
Kaidon SalterQB	9	127 / 204	1,414	6.9	10	7
Julian LewisQB	4	52 / 94	589	6.3	4	0
Ryan StaubQB	4	30 / 55	426	7.7	3	4
Colton AllenQB	1	1 / 1	4	4.0	0	0
Dominiq PonderQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Joseph WilliamsWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Utah's line averages 308.6 lbs against Colorado's 270.0 lbs front — an edge of 38.6 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Utah OLUtah OL vs Colorado DL	308.6 lbs	270.0 lbs
Colorado OLColorado OL vs Utah DL	311.2 lbs	270.4 lbs

Utah
Colorado

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Utah

Points per game: 41.3#4 nationally · 98th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 18.9#17 nationally · 87th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 14% of 2024 PPA returns · 8th percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Colorado

Points per game: 20.9#116 nationally · 15th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.5#112 nationally · 18th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 7% of 2024 PPA returns · 0th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 105 of 105 with a class year

Recruiting

Utah

2025 signing class · #40 nationally: 71st percentile · 207.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #38 nationally: 73rd percentile · 0.46 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #44 nationally: 68th percentile · 707.9

Colorado

2025 signing class · #37 nationally: 73rd percentile · 209.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #49 nationally: 64th percentile · 0.28 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #30 nationally: 78th percentile · 755.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Utah: solid line, circles · Colorado: dashed line, squares

Utah

Offense · 2025: 39.7 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.5 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.0 · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 207.8 pts · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 14% returning · 8th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Colorado

Offense · SP+ 2025: 22.6 · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.5 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 209.1 pts · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 7% returning · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Utah's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 31
vs Nebraska · neutral site
W 44–22
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 57 recorded plays
at Kansas
W 31–21
42%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 83 recorded plays
vs Kansas State
W 51–47
47%
Success rate
0.39
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Utah

Head coach: Morgan Scalley
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Kevin McGiven
career +26.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Colton Swan
no career rating on file

Colorado

Head coach: Deion Sanders
career −1.7 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Lydia Gordon, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Brennan Marion
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Chris Marve
career +22.8 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Utah leads 12–3 since 2000

2025 · Utah 53, Colorado 7
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2024 · Colorado 49, Utah 24
Folsom Field
2023 · Utah 23, Colorado 17
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2022 · Utah 63, Colorado 21
Folsom Field
2021 · Utah 28, Colorado 13
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2020 · Utah 38, Colorado 21
Folsom Field
2019 · Utah 45, Colorado 15
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2018 · Utah 30, Colorado 7
Folsom Field
2017 · Utah 34, Colorado 13
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2016 · Colorado 27, Utah 22
Folsom Field
2015 · Utah 20, Colorado 14
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2014 · Utah 38, Colorado 34
Folsom Field
2013 · Utah 24, Colorado 17
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2012 · Utah 42, Colorado 35
Folsom Field
2011 · Colorado 17, Utah 14
Rice-Eccles Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Utah: 13 games
Colorado: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Utah's offense leads its matchup in scoring

No clear statistical strength for Colorado

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Utah has the ball

Utah offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Colorado defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Colorado has the ball

Colorado offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Utah defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Devon Dampier

Wayshawn Parker

Ryan Davis

Utah player production

Colorado player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Utah

Colorado

Recruiting

Utah

Colorado

Season percentile profiles

Utah

Colorado

Utah's recent games

vs Nebraska · neutral site

at Kansas

vs Kansas State

The coaching staff

Utah

Colorado

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources