Saturday, October 17

TCU

2–3

Baylor

4–1

7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTMcLane StadiumWaco, TX

Weather

Clear72°FN 8 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Waco · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear72°FN 8 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

34%

TCU win probability

Baylor 66%

Baylor by 6.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · TCU's case

TCU's offense leads its matchup in scoring

TCU's offense was in the 71st percentile for points per game last season. Baylor's defense was in the 10th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Baylor's answer

Baylor's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Baylor's offense was in the 76th percentile for points per game last season. TCU's defense was in the 47th percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives TCU a 34% chance to win and predicts Baylor by 6.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When TCU has the ball

TCU offense: 65th
Baylor defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

TCU offensive per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Baylor PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
TCU: 45%68th percentile · #44 nationally
Baylor success rate allowed: 44%28th percentile · #98 nationally
TCU points per game: 30.771st percentile · #40 nationally
Baylor points allowed per game: 32.610th percentile · #122 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

TCU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 42.8%

Baylor defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 45.8%

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor offense: 61st
TCU defense: 57th

Show the underlying numbers

Baylor offensive PPA per play: 0.1961st percentile · #49 nationally
TCU PPA allowed per play: 0.1457th percentile · #58 nationally
Baylor success rate: 45%70th percentile · #41 nationally
TCU success rate allowed: 40%63rd percentile · #51 nationally
Baylor points per game: 31.176th percentile · #33 nationally
TCU points allowed per game: 25.347th percentile · #72 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Baylor offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.21
Rush success: 48.2%

TCU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 41.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Josh Hoover · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 158 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.2; over 155 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 155 attempts with a result

399 of 412 have a direction · 13 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 352 short · 47 deep · 13 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The TCU offense in 2025

Josh Hoover

QB · 12 games

272/413 · 66% season

Passing yards: 3,472
Touchdowns: 29
Interceptions: 13

Last game

Cincinnati · Nov 29, 2025: 19/22, 306 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

Jeremy Payne

RB · 11 games

Carries: 110
Rushing yards: 623
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

USC · Dec 30, 2025: 13 carries, 73 yds, 1 TD

Eric McAlister

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 72
Receiving yards: 1,190
Touchdowns: 10

Last game

USC · Dec 30, 2025: 8 rec, 69 yds, 0 TD

TCU player tables

Who is producing

TCU player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

TCU — Passing production
Player
Josh HooverQB	12	272 / 413	3,472	8.4	29	13
Ken SealsQB	3	33 / 46	282	6.1	1	2
Joseph ManjackWR	1	1 / 1	17	17.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Baylor player tables

Who is producing

Baylor player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Baylor — Passing production
Player
Sawyer RobertsonQB	12	304 / 503	3,681	7.3	31	12
Nate BennettQB	1	5 / 7	34	4.9	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

TCU's line averages 313.5 lbs against Baylor's 279.3 lbs front — an edge of 34.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
TCU OLTCU OL vs Baylor DL	313.5 lbs	279.3 lbs
Baylor OLBaylor OL vs TCU DL	312.4 lbs	267.1 lbs

TCU
Baylor

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

TCU

Points per game: 30.7#40 nationally · 71st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 25.3#72 nationally · 47th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 61% of 2024 PPA returns · 63rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Baylor

Points per game: 31.1#33 nationally · 76th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 32.6#122 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 83% of 2024 PPA returns · 85th percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

TCU

2025 signing class · #24 nationally: 83rd percentile · 229.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 0.73 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 745.0

Baylor

2025 signing class · #36 nationally: 74th percentile · 210.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #44 nationally: 68th percentile · 0.36 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #35 nationally: 74th percentile · 726.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

TCU: solid line, circles · Baylor: dashed line, squares

TCU

Offense · 2025: 32.9 · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 23.9 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.7 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 229.8 pts · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 61% returning · 63rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Baylor

Offense · SP+ 2025: 32.8 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.3 · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.9 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 210.4 pts · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 83% returning · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

TCU's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 30
vs USC · neutral site
W 30–27
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 74 recorded plays
vs Cincinnati
W 45–23
50%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 70 recorded plays
at Houston
W 17–14
46%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play

The coaching staff

TCU

Head coach: Sonny Dykes
career +4.6 SP+ overall
Photo: Arbor to SJ, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Ricker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +34.5 SP+ offense; Gordon Sammis
career +34.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Andy Avalos
career +21.1 SP+ defense

Baylor

Head coach: Dave Aranda
career +5.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Jace Pierce, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Jake Spavital
career +37.2 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Joe Klanderman
career +21.1 SP+ defense
Photo: Kansas State Wildcats: K-StateOnline, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

TCU leads 13–5 since 2000

2025 · TCU 42, Baylor 36
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2024 · Baylor 37, TCU 34
McLane Stadium
2023 · TCU 42, Baylor 17
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2022 · TCU 29, Baylor 28
McLane Stadium
2021 · TCU 30, Baylor 28
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2020 · TCU 33, Baylor 23
McLane Stadium
2019 · Baylor 29, TCU 23
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2018 · TCU 16, Baylor 9
McLane Stadium
2017 · TCU 45, Baylor 22
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2016 · TCU 62, Baylor 22
McLane Stadium
2015 · TCU 28, Baylor 21
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2014 · Baylor 61, TCU 58
McLane Stadium
2013 · Baylor 41, TCU 38
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2012 · TCU 49, Baylor 21
Floyd Casey Stadium
2011 · Baylor 50, TCU 48
Floyd Casey Stadium
2010 · TCU 45, Baylor 10
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2007 · TCU 27, Baylor 0
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2006 · TCU 17, Baylor 7
Floyd Casey Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

TCU: 13 games
Baylor: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

TCU's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Baylor's offense leads its matchup in scoring

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When TCU has the ball

TCU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Baylor defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

TCU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Josh Hoover

Jeremy Payne

Eric McAlister

TCU player production

Baylor player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

TCU

Baylor

Recruiting

TCU

Baylor

Season percentile profiles

TCU

Baylor

TCU's recent games

vs USC · neutral site

vs Cincinnati

at Houston

The coaching staff

TCU

Baylor

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources