2026 TCU vs 2026 Baylor
Hypothetical
60% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 TCU Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.5, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Baylor Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 TCU Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Baylor Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.0, 83rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 TCU Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Baylor Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 TCU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 212.6 pts, 66th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Baylor Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 200.6 pts, 59th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 TCU Experience · returning production 2026: 22% returning, 30th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Baylor Experience · returning production 2026: 60% returning, 71st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 TCU | 2026 Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1343rd percentile | 0.1651st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1093rd percentile | −0.1196th percentile |
| Points per game | 25.434th percentile5 games | 34.869th percentile5 games |
| per game | 13.493rd percentile5 games | 14.292nd percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 77th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 71st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 64th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 81st percentile
Campus distance
80 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 TCU OL vs 2026 Baylor DL | 313.5 lbs | 279.3 lbs |
| 2026 Baylor OL vs 2026 TCU DL | 312.4 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
2026 TCU line yards 2.92 · 2026 Baylor stuff rate 24.2%
2026 Baylor line yards 2.95 · 2026 TCU stuff rate 21.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · TCU leads 13–5 since 2000
TCU has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TCU 42–36 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2024 | TCU 34–37 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2023 | TCU 42–17 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2022 | TCU 29–28 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2021 | TCU 30–28 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2020 | TCU 33–23 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2019 | TCU 23–29 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2018 | TCU 16–9 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2017 | TCU 45–22 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2016 | TCU 62–22 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2015 | TCU 28–21 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2014 | TCU 58–61 Baylor | McLane Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2013 | TCU 38–41 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2012 | TCU 49–21 Baylor | Floyd Casey Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2011 | TCU 48–50 Baylor | Floyd Casey Stadium · Baylor home |
| 2010 | TCU 45–10 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2007 | TCU 27–0 Baylor | Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU home |
| 2006 | TCU 17–7 Baylor | Floyd Casey Stadium · Baylor home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Sonny Dykes
OC
- A. J. Ricker (co-OC)
- Gordon Sammis
career average +34.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 62nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.2 plays a game, 47th percentile)
DC
- Andy Avalos
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dave Aranda
OC
- Jake Spavital
career average +37.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Bear raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 77th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.2 plays a game, 100th percentile)
DC
- Joe Klanderman
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
TCU at Baylor · October 17, 2026
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