Saturday, October 17

Georgia

6–0 · AP #1

Auburn

3–2

3:30 PM ETSanford StadiumAthens, GA

Weather

Clear68°FNE 9 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:26 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Athens · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear68°FNE 9 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

95%

Georgia win probability

Auburn 5%

Georgia by 23.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Georgia's case

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in

Georgia's defense was in the 93rd percentile for points allowed per game last season. Auburn's offense was in the 46th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Auburn's answer

Auburn has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Georgia's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Georgia a 95% chance to win and predicts Georgia by 23.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense: 80th
Auburn defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

Georgia offensive per play: 0.2480th percentile · #26 nationally
Auburn PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
Georgia: 47%87th percentile · #18 nationally
Auburn success rate allowed: 37%85th percentile · #21 nationally
Georgia points per game: 32.180th percentile · #28 nationally
Auburn points allowed per game: 20.776th percentile · #34 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Georgia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 47.8%

Auburn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 36.8%

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense: 48th
Georgia defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

Auburn offensive PPA per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Georgia PPA allowed per play: 0.0973rd percentile · #34 nationally
Auburn success rate: 44%63rd percentile · #51 nationally
Georgia success rate allowed: 39%73rd percentile · #37 nationally
Auburn points per game: 26.846th percentile · #74 nationally
Georgia points allowed per game: 17.693rd percentile · #10 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Auburn offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 45.0%

Georgia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.15
Rush success allowed: 37.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Gunner Stockton · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 47%
Usage: charted in this direction: 151 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.8; over 151 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 73%; over 151 attempts with a result

323 of 328 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 13 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 276 short · 47 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (47%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.1 over 62 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Georgia offense in 2025

Gunner Stockton

QB · 14 games

269/386 · 70% season

Passing yards: 2,894
Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Ole Miss · Jan 1, 2026: 18/31, 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Nate Frazier

RB · 14 games

Carries: 173
Rushing yards: 947
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Ole Miss · Jan 1, 2026: 15 carries, 86 yds, 0 TD

Zachariah Branch

WR · 14 games

Receptions: 81
Receiving yards: 811
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Ole Miss · Jan 1, 2026: 8 rec, 67 yds, 1 TD

Georgia player tables

Who is producing

Georgia player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Georgia — Passing production
Player
Gunner StocktonQB	14	269 / 386	2,894	7.5	24	5
Ryan PuglisiQB	6	16 / 27	161	6.0	1	2
Dillon BellWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Landon RoldanWR	1	1 / 1	16	16.0	0	0
Ryan MontgomeryQB	1	1 / 1	12	12.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Auburn player tables

Who is producing

Auburn player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Auburn — Passing production
Player
Jackson ArnoldQB	10	136 / 215	1,309	6.1	6	2
Ashton DanielsQB	4	68 / 119	797	6.7	3	2
Deuce KnightQB	2	17 / 25	259	10.4	2	0
Eric Singleton Jr.WR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Georgia's line averages 315.5 lbs against Auburn's 286.3 lbs front — an edge of 29.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Georgia OLGeorgia OL vs Auburn DL	315.5 lbs	286.3 lbs
Auburn OLAuburn OL vs Georgia DL	315.2 lbs	297.4 lbs

Georgia
Auburn

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Georgia

Points per game: 32.1#28 nationally · 80th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 17.6#10 nationally · 93rd percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 37% of 2024 PPA returns · 35th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 132 of 132 with a class year

Auburn

Points per game: 26.8#74 nationally · 46th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 20.7#34 nationally · 76th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 17th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

Georgia

2025 signing class · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 304.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 2.25 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 1003.0

Auburn

2025 signing class · #8 nationally: 95th percentile · 286.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 1.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 891.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Georgia: solid line, circles · Auburn: dashed line, squares

Georgia

Offense · 2025: 37.0 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 14.8 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.9 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 304.6 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 37% returning · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Auburn

Offense · SP+ 2025: 28.3 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.4 · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 286.9 pts · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Georgia's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 1
vs Ole Miss · neutral site
L 34–39
Play stats pending
Dec 6 · 68 recorded plays
vs Alabama · neutral site
W 28–7
37%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Nov 28 · 69 recorded plays
vs Georgia Tech · neutral site
W 16–9
35%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Georgia

Head coach: Kirby Smart
career +26.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Mike Bobo
career +40.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Glenn Schumann
career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: TarheelBornBred, CC0; Travaris Robinson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0

Auburn

Head coach: Alex Golesh
First season as Auburn's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Joel Gordon
career +33.3 SP+ offense; Kodi Burns
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.3 SP+ offense
Photo: Obama White House Archives, Public domain
Defensive coordinator: D. J. Durkin
career +23.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0; Tim Banks
Co-defensive coordinator · career +23.9 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Georgia leads 20–7 since 2000

2025 · Georgia 20, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2024 · Georgia 31, Auburn 13
Sanford Stadium
2023 · Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2022 · Georgia 42, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2021 · Georgia 34, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2020 · Georgia 27, Auburn 6
Sanford Stadium
2019 · Georgia 21, Auburn 14
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2018 · Georgia 27, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2017 · Georgia 28, Auburn 7
Neutral site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
2017 · Auburn 40, Georgia 17
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2016 · Georgia 13, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2015 · Georgia 20, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2014 · Georgia 34, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2013 · Auburn 43, Georgia 38
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2012 · Georgia 38, Auburn 0
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2011 · Georgia 45, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2010 · Auburn 49, Georgia 31
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2009 · Georgia 31, Auburn 24
Sanford Stadium
2008 · Georgia 17, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2007 · Georgia 45, Auburn 20
Sanford Stadium
2006 · Georgia 37, Auburn 15
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2005 · Auburn 31, Georgia 30
Sanford Stadium
2004 · Auburn 24, Georgia 6
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2003 · Georgia 26, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2002 · Georgia 24, Auburn 21
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2001 · Auburn 24, Georgia 17
Sanford Stadium
2000 · Auburn 29, Georgia 26

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Georgia: 14 games
Auburn: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Auburn has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Auburn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Georgia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Gunner Stockton

Nate Frazier

Zachariah Branch

Georgia player production

Auburn player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Georgia

Auburn

Recruiting

Georgia

Auburn

Season percentile profiles

Georgia

Auburn

Georgia's recent games

vs Ole Miss · neutral site

vs Alabama · neutral site

vs Georgia Tech · neutral site

The coaching staff

Georgia

Auburn

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in