2026 Georgia vs 2026 Auburn
Hypothetical
93% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Georgia Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.5, 98th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.7, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 292.0 pts, 96th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Auburn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.0 pts, 78th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Georgia Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 82nd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Auburn Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Georgia | 2026 Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.4099th percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0582nd percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 46.299th percentile6 games | 26.839th percentile5 games |
| per game | 14.093rd percentile6 games | 21.464th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 99th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
Campus distance
155 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Georgia OL vs 2026 Auburn DL | 315.5 lbs | 286.3 lbs |
| 2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Georgia DL | 315.2 lbs | 297.4 lbs |
2026 Georgia line yards 3.44 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%
2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Georgia stuff rate 18.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Georgia leads 20–7 since 2000
Georgia has won 9 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Georgia 20–10 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2024 | Georgia 31–13 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2023 | Georgia 27–20 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2022 | Georgia 42–10 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2021 | Georgia 34–10 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2020 | Georgia 27–6 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2019 | Georgia 21–14 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2018 | Georgia 27–10 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2017 | Georgia 28–7 Auburn | Neutral site |
| 2017 | Georgia 17–40 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2016 | Georgia 13–7 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2015 | Georgia 20–13 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2014 | Georgia 34–7 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2013 | Georgia 38–43 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2012 | Georgia 38–0 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2011 | Georgia 45–7 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2010 | Georgia 31–49 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2009 | Georgia 31–24 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2008 | Georgia 17–13 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2007 | Georgia 45–20 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2006 | Georgia 37–15 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2005 | Georgia 30–31 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2004 | Georgia 6–24 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2003 | Georgia 26–7 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2002 | Georgia 24–21 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2001 | Georgia 17–24 Auburn | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2000 | Georgia 26–29 Auburn | Auburn home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kirby Smart
OC
- Mike Bobo
career average +40.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.2 plays a game, 15th percentile)
DC
- Glenn Schumann
- Travaris Robinson (co-DC)
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)
OC
- Joel Gordon
- Kodi Burns (co-OC)
career average +33.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)
DC
- D. J. Durkin
- Tim Banks (co-DC)
career average +23.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Auburn at Georgia · October 17, 2026
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