Saturday, October 17

Georgia State

4–1

James Madison

6–0

12:00 PM ETBridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA

Weather

Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Harrisonburg · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

21%

Georgia State win probability

James Madison 79%

James Madison by 11.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Georgia State's case

No clear statistical strength for Georgia State

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Georgia State unit ranked well below the James Madison unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · James Madison's answer

James Madison's offense leads its matchup in scoring

James Madison's offense was in the 94th percentile for points per game last season. Georgia State's defense was in the 1st percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Georgia State has spread its pass attempts

Georgia State's leading passer threw 43% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Georgia State has the ball

Georgia State offense: 33rd
James Madison defense: 96th

Show the underlying numbers

Georgia State offensive per play: 0.1333rd percentile · #89 nationally
James Madison PPA allowed per play: 0.0096th percentile · #6 nationally
Georgia State: 40%29th percentile · #97 nationally
James Madison success rate allowed: 30%100th percentile · #1 nationally
Georgia State points per game: 19.813th percentile · #119 nationally
James Madison points allowed per game: 18.491st percentile · #13 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Georgia State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.19
Rush success: 44.6%

James Madison defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.40
Rush success allowed: 33.4%

When James Madison has the ball

James Madison offense: 78th
Georgia State defense: 2nd

Show the underlying numbers

James Madison offensive PPA per play: 0.2378th percentile · #29 nationally
Georgia State PPA allowed per play: 0.282nd percentile · #133 nationally
James Madison success rate: 45%74th percentile · #36 nationally
Georgia State success rate allowed: 46%7th percentile · #126 nationally
James Madison points per game: 37.194th percentile · #9 nationally
Georgia State points allowed per game: 37.81st percentile · #133 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

James Madison offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 49.0%

Georgia State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 43.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

TJ Finley · 43% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 35%
Usage: charted in this direction: 68 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.7; over 67 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 61%; over 67 attempts with a result

194 of 202 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 173 short · 21 deep · 8 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Georgia State offense in 2025

TJ Finley

QB · 7 games

127/201 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,244
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Marshall · Nov 15, 2025: 25/39, 251 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

Jordan Simmons

RB · 10 games

Carries: 97
Rushing yards: 543
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Old Dominion · Nov 29, 2025: 17 carries, 88 yds, 0 TD

Ted Hurst

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 71
Receiving yards: 1,004
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Old Dominion · Nov 29, 2025: 7 rec, 76 yds, 0 TD

Georgia State player tables

Who is producing

Georgia State player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Georgia State — Passing production
Player
TJ FinleyQB	7	127 / 201	1,244	6.2	6	7
Cameran BrownQB	10	119 / 184	1,259	6.8	13	1
Christian VeilleuxQB	3	41 / 86	513	6.0	3	3
DJ Murray Jr.RB	1	1 / 1	37	37.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

James Madison player tables

Who is producing

James Madison player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

James Madison — Passing production
Player
Alonza BarnettQB	14	216 / 370	2,806	7.6	23	8
Matthew SlukaQB	4	8 / 11	100	9.1	3	2
JC EvansQB	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Isaiah AlstonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Nick DeGennaroWR	1	1 / 1	50	50.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Georgia State's line averages 310.3 lbs against James Madison's 274.4 lbs front — an edge of 35.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Georgia State OLGeorgia State OL vs James Madison DL	310.3 lbs	274.4 lbs
James Madison OLJames Madison OL vs Georgia State DL	309.2 lbs	282.5 lbs

Georgia State
James Madison

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Georgia State

Points per game: 19.8#119 nationally · 13th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 37.8#133 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 69% of 2024 PPA returns · 72nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 122 of 122 with a class year

James Madison

Points per game: 37.1#9 nationally · 94th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 18.4#13 nationally · 91st percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 78% of 2024 PPA returns · 82nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Georgia State

2025 signing class · #67 nationally: 51st percentile · 184.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #95 nationally: 30th percentile · −0.56 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #77 nationally: 43rd percentile · 612.0

James Madison

2025 signing class · #108 nationally: 21st percentile · 138.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #125 nationally: 8th percentile · −1.23 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #127 nationally: 5th percentile · 459.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Georgia State: solid line, circles · James Madison: dashed line, squares

Georgia State

Offense · 2025: 18.6 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 41.1 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −2.0 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 184.2 pts · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 69% returning · 72nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

James Madison

Offense · SP+ 2025: 34.9 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.4 · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.1 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 138.5 pts · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 78% returning · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Georgia State's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 68 recorded plays
at Old Dominion
L 10–27
37%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 87 recorded plays
at Troy
L 19–31
41%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 80 recorded plays
vs Marshall
L 18–30
33%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Georgia State

Head coach: Dell McGee
career −21.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Hue Jackson
career +18.6 SP+ offense
Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Cam Clark
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file; John Haneline
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file

James Madison

Head coach: Billy Napier
career +6.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Cam Aiken
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Robert Bala
career +22.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

James Madison leads 4–0 since 2000

2025 · James Madison 14, Georgia State 7
Center Parc Stadium
2024 · James Madison 38, Georgia State 7
Bridgeforth Stadium
2023 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 14
Center Parc Stadium
2022 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 40
Bridgeforth Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Georgia State: 12 games
James Madison: 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Georgia State

James Madison's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Georgia State has spread its pass attempts

When each team has the ball

When Georgia State has the ball

Georgia State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

James Madison defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When James Madison has the ball

James Madison offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Georgia State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

TJ Finley

Jordan Simmons

Ted Hurst

Georgia State player production

James Madison player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Georgia State

James Madison

Recruiting

Georgia State

James Madison

Season percentile profiles

Georgia State

James Madison

Georgia State's recent games

at Old Dominion

at Troy

vs Marshall

The coaching staff

Georgia State

James Madison

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources