Saturday, October 17

Virginia

4–2

SMU

4–1 · AP #24

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTGerald J. Ford StadiumUniversity Park, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

University Park · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

31%

Virginia win probability

SMU 69%

SMU by 7.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Virginia's case

Virginia's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Virginia's defense was in the 87th percentile for success rate allowed last season. SMU's offense was in the 61st percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · SMU's answer

SMU's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

SMU's defense was in the 92nd percentile for allowed per play last season. Virginia's offense was in the 48th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Virginia a 31% chance to win and predicts SMU by 7.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense: 48th
SMU defense: 92nd

Show the underlying numbers

Virginia offensive PPA per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
SMU PPA allowed per play: 0.0392nd percentile · #10 nationally
Virginia success rate: 41%41st percentile · #81 nationally
SMU success rate allowed: 40%67th percentile · #46 nationally
Virginia points per game: 30.873rd percentile · #38 nationally
SMU per game: 20.576th percentile · #31 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Virginia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 41.9%

SMU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.10
Rush success allowed: 37.4%

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense: 82nd
Virginia defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

SMU offensive PPA per play: 0.2582nd percentile · #22 nationally
Virginia PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
SMU success rate: 43%61st percentile · #54 nationally
Virginia success rate allowed: 37%87th percentile · #18 nationally
SMU points per game: 32.281st percentile · #26 nationally
Virginia points allowed per game: 19.684th percentile · #22 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

SMU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.41
Rush success: 40.4%

Virginia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.11
Rush success allowed: 37.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Chandler Morris · 86% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 155 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.6; over 154 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 154 attempts with a result

351 of 357 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 13 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 317 short · 34 deep · 6 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.1 over 91 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Virginia offense in 2025

Chandler Morris

QB · 14 games

282/436 · 65% season

Passing yards: 3,000
Touchdowns: 16
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Missouri · Dec 27, 2025: 25/38, 198 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

J'mari Taylor

RB · 13 games

Carries: 222
Rushing yards: 1,062
Touchdowns: 14

Last game

Duke · Dec 6, 2025: 15 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD

Trell Harris

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 59
Receiving yards: 847
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Duke · Dec 6, 2025: 3 rec, 38 yds, 0 TD

Virginia player tables

Who is producing

Virginia player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Virginia — Passing production
Player
Chandler MorrisQB	14	282 / 436	3,000	6.9	16	9
Daniel KaelinQB	4	30 / 52	339	6.5	1	1
Cole GeerQB	1	2 / 2	8	4.0	0	0
J'mari TaylorRB	1	1 / 1	1	1.0	1	0
Suderian HarrisonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

SMU player tables

Who is producing

SMU player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

SMU — Passing production
Player
Kevin JenningsQB	13	300 / 454	3,641	8.0	26	13
Charlie FiserQB	2	4 / 4	30	7.5	0	0
Romello BrinsonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Ty HawkinsQB	1	1 / 1	9	9.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Virginia's line averages 306.4 lbs against SMU's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 32.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Virginia OLVirginia OL vs SMU DL	306.4 lbs	273.6 lbs
SMU OLSMU OL vs Virginia DL	310.5 lbs	268.3 lbs

Virginia
SMU

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Virginia

Points per game: 30.8#38 nationally · 73rd percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 19.6#22 nationally · 84th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 28% of 2024 PPA returns · 27th percentile
Upperclassmen: 64% · 123 of 123 with a class year

SMU

Points per game: 32.2#26 nationally · 81st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.5#31 nationally · 76th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 50% of 2024 PPA returns · 47th percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Recruiting

Virginia

2025 signing class · #58 nationally: 58th percentile · 195.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #72 nationally: 47th percentile · −0.01 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #62 nationally: 54th percentile · 666.7

SMU

2025 signing class · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 220.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #71 nationally: 48th percentile · 0.00 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 766.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Virginia: solid line, circles · SMU: dashed line, squares

Virginia

Offense · 2025: 28.8 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 18.1 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.5 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 195.8 pts · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 28% returning · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

SMU

Offense · SP+ 2025: 34.2 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 19.5 · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.2 · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 220.8 pts · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 50% returning · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Virginia's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 27
vs Missouri · neutral site
W 13–7
Play stats pending
Dec 6 · 70 recorded plays
vs Duke · neutral site
L 20–27
43%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 68 recorded plays
vs Virginia Tech
W 27–7
43%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Virginia

Head coach: Tony Elliott
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Virginia Office of the Governor, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Desmond Kitchings
career +22.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: John Rudzinski
career +26.5 SP+ defense

SMU

Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
career +11.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Garin Justice
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense; Rob Likens
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Maurice Crum Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense; Rickey Hunley Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

SMU leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · SMU 33, Virginia 7
Scott Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Virginia: 14 games
SMU: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Virginia's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

SMU's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

SMU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Virginia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Chandler Morris

J'mari Taylor

Trell Harris

Virginia player production

SMU player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Virginia

SMU

Recruiting

Virginia

SMU

Season percentile profiles

Virginia

SMU

Virginia's recent games

vs Missouri · neutral site

vs Duke · neutral site

vs Virginia Tech

The coaching staff

Virginia

SMU

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Virginia's defense leads its matchup in allowed