Saturday, October 17

Virginia

4–2

SMU

4–1 · AP #24

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTGerald J. Ford StadiumUniversity Park, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

University Park · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

31%

Virginia win probability

SMU 69%

SMU by 7.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · SMU's case

SMU's defense leads its matchup in allowed

SMU's defense is in the 73rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Virginia's offense is in the 55th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Virginia's answer

Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against SMU's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Virginia leans on its top passer

Virginia's leading passer has thrown 68% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense: 57th
SMU defense: 58th

Show the underlying numbers

Virginia offensive per play: 0.1857th percentile · #54 nationally
SMU PPA allowed per play: 0.0458th percentile · #55 nationally
Virginia success rate: 44%55th percentile · #62 nationally
SMU success rate allowed: 37%73rd percentile · #38 nationally
Virginia points per game: 32.863rd percentile · #52 nationally
SMU per game: 23.053rd percentile · #65 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 49.7%

SMU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.43
Rush success allowed: 45.1%

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense: 71st
Virginia defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

SMU offensive PPA per play: 0.2271st percentile · #38 nationally
Virginia PPA allowed per play: −0.0173rd percentile · #38 nationally
SMU success rate: 49%82nd percentile · #26 nationally
Virginia success rate allowed: 37%70th percentile · #42 nationally
SMU points per game: 34.666th percentile · #46 nationally
Virginia points allowed per game: 19.273rd percentile · #37 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

SMU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 45.5%

Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 42.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Beau Pribula · 68% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 37 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.4; over 37 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 76%; over 37 attempts with a result

85 of 86 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 72 short · 13 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Virginia offense in 2026

Beau Pribula

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

91/137 · 66% season

Passing yards: 1,080
Touchdowns: 13
Interception: 1

Last game

Syracuse · Oct 10, 2026: 11/19, 119 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Jekail Middlebrook

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 67
Rushing yards: 337
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Syracuse · Oct 10, 2026: 17 carries, 95 yds, 2 TD

Kameron Courtney

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 18
Receiving yards: 204
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Syracuse · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 38 yds, 0 TD

Virginia player tables

Who is producing

Virginia player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Virginia — Passing production
Player
Beau PribulaQB	6	91 / 137	1,080	7.9	13	1
Eli HolsteinQB	2	12 / 18	180	10.0	3	0
Cole GeerQB	2	3 / 7	45	6.4	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

SMU player tables

Who is producing

SMU player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

SMU — Passing production
Player
Kevin JenningsQB	5	117 / 156	1,613	10.3	14	5
Ty HawkinsQB	1	11 / 13	104	8.0	2	0
Charlie FiserQB	1	1 / 2	8	4.0	0	0
Cole LeinartQB	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Virginia's line averages 306.4 lbs against SMU's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 32.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Virginia OLVirginia OL vs SMU DL	306.4 lbs	273.6 lbs
SMU OLSMU OL vs Virginia DL	310.5 lbs	268.3 lbs

Virginia
SMU

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Virginia

Points per game: 32.8#52 nationally · 63rd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#37 nationally · 73rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 10% of 2025 PPA returns · 13th percentile
Upperclassmen: 66% · 121 of 121 with a class year

SMU

Points per game: 34.6#46 nationally · 66th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 23.0#65 nationally · 53rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 57% of 2025 PPA returns · 64th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Virginia

2026 signing class · #111 nationally: 20th percentile · 171.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #75 nationally: 46th percentile · −0.26 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #53 nationally: 62nd percentile · 700.2

SMU

2026 signing class · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 225.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #51 nationally: 64th percentile · 0.30 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 764.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Virginia: solid line, circles · SMU: dashed line, squares

Virginia

Offense · 2026: 29.6 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.3 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.8 pts · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 10% returning · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

SMU

Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.2 · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.0 · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.8 pts · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Virginia's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 56 recorded plays
vs Syracuse
W 28–25
46%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 51 recorded plays
at Florida State
L 7–38
33%
Success rate
−0.11
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 53 recorded plays
vs Delaware
W 42–3
53%
Success rate
0.46
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Virginia

Head coach: Tony Elliott
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Virginia Office of the Governor, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Desmond Kitchings
career +22.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: John Rudzinski
career +26.5 SP+ defense

SMU

Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
career +11.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Garin Justice
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense; Rob Likens
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Maurice Crum Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense; Rickey Hunley Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

SMU leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · SMU 33, Virginia 7
Scott Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Virginia: 6 games
SMU: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

SMU's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

Virginia leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

SMU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Beau Pribula

Jekail Middlebrook

Kameron Courtney

Virginia player production

SMU player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Virginia

SMU

Recruiting

Virginia

SMU

Season percentile profiles

Virginia

SMU

Virginia's recent games

vs Syracuse

at Florida State

vs Delaware

The coaching staff

Virginia

SMU

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

SMU's defense leads its matchup in allowed