Saturday, October 17

Oregon

3–2

Nebraska

5–1

11:00 PM ET8:00 PM PTAutzen StadiumEugene, OR

Weather

Partly cloudy57°FN 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 6%

At kickoff · 8:00 PM PT · Updated 12:41 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Eugene · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy57°FN 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 6%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

64%

Oregon win probability

Nebraska 36%

Oregon by 5.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Oregon's case

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Oregon's offense was in the 87th percentile for per play last season. Nebraska's defense was in the 27th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Nebraska's answer

Nebraska has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Oregon's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Oregon a 64% chance to win and predicts Oregon by 5.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense: 87th
Nebraska defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Oregon offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Nebraska PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Oregon: 47%89th percentile · #16 nationally
Nebraska success rate allowed: 43%36th percentile · #88 nationally
Oregon points per game: 36.993rd percentile · #10 nationally
Nebraska per game: 24.651st percentile · #67 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Oregon offense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 52.3%

Nebraska defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.32
Rush success allowed: 47.6%

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska offense: 56th
Oregon defense: 90th

Show the underlying numbers

Nebraska offensive PPA per play: 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
Oregon PPA allowed per play: 0.0490th percentile · #13 nationally
Nebraska success rate: 47%87th percentile · #19 nationally
Oregon success rate allowed: 36%90th percentile · #15 nationally
Nebraska points per game: 28.757th percentile · #59 nationally
Oregon points allowed per game: 17.992nd percentile · #12 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Nebraska offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.07
Rush success: 48.0%

Oregon defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 42.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Dante Moore · 93% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 120 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.6; over 118 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 72%; over 118 attempts with a result

307 of 312 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 264 short · 43 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Oregon offense in 2025

Dante Moore

QB · 15 games

296/412 · 72% season

Passing yards: 3,565
Touchdowns: 30
Interceptions: 10

Last game

Indiana · Jan 9, 2026: 24/39, 285 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Noah Whittington

RB · 12 games

Carries: 129
Rushing yards: 829
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Texas Tech · Jan 1, 2026: 13 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD

Kenyon Sadiq

TE · 14 games

Receptions: 51
Receiving yards: 560
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Indiana · Jan 9, 2026: 5 rec, 29 yds, 0 TD

Oregon player tables

Who is producing

Oregon player production

2025 evidence · 15 games in this window · 15 with recorded rows in this view

Oregon — Passing production
Player
Dante MooreQB	15	296 / 412	3,565	8.7	30	10
Brock ThomasQB	5	12 / 16	130	8.1	1	0
Luke MogaQB	2	3 / 5	58	11.6	0	0
Austin NovosadQB	1	1 / 2	40	20.0	0	0
James Ferguson-ReynoldsP	1	1 / 1	11	11.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Nebraska player tables

Who is producing

Nebraska player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Nebraska — Passing production
Player
Dylan RaiolaQB	9	181 / 250	2,000	8.0	18	6
TJ LateefQB	7	74 / 123	904	7.3	5	1
Jalyn GramstadQB	2	5 / 5	16	3.2	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Oregon's line averages 313.2 lbs against Nebraska's 278.8 lbs front — an edge of 34.4 lbs a man.

Oregon's line average is based on 17 of 22 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Oregon OLOregon OL vs Nebraska DL	313.2 lbs	278.8 lbs
Nebraska OLNebraska OL vs Oregon DL	303.3 lbs	308.9 lbs

Oregon
Nebraska

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Oregon

Points per game: 36.9#10 nationally · 93rd percentile · 15 games
Points allowed per game: 17.9#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 15 games
Returning production: 19% of 2024 PPA returns · 14th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Nebraska

Points per game: 28.7#59 nationally · 57th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 24.6#67 nationally · 51st percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 59% of 2024 PPA returns · 62nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 27% · 125 of 125 with a class year

Recruiting

Oregon

2025 signing class · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 296.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 1.82 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 941.2

Nebraska

2025 signing class · #22 nationally: 84th percentile · 237.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #22 nationally: 84th percentile · 0.93 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #20 nationally: 86th percentile · 821.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Oregon: solid line, circles · Nebraska: dashed line, squares

Oregon

Offense · 2025: 38.7 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 13.5 · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 296.1 pts · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 19% returning · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Nebraska

Offense · SP+ 2025: 28.8 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 22.7 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.1 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 237.5 pts · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 59% returning · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Oregon's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 9
vs Indiana · neutral site
L 22–56
Play stats pending
Jan 1
vs Texas Tech · neutral site
W 23–0
Play stats pending
Dec 20
vs James Madison
W 51–34
Play stats pending

The coaching staff

Oregon

Head coach: Dan Lanning
career +24.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Drew Mehringer
career +28.0 SP+ offense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Chris Hampton
career +19.6 SP+ defense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0

Nebraska

Head coach: Matt Rhule
career +3.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Dana Holgorsen
career +31.9 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0; Glenn Thomas
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Rob Aurich
career +19.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2017 · Oregon 42, Nebraska 35
Autzen Stadium
2016 · Nebraska 35, Oregon 32
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Oregon: 15 games
Nebraska: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Nebraska has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Nebraska defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Oregon defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Dante Moore

Noah Whittington

Kenyon Sadiq

Oregon player production

Nebraska player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Oregon

Nebraska

Recruiting

Oregon

Nebraska

Season percentile profiles

Oregon

Nebraska

Oregon's recent games

vs Indiana · neutral site

vs Texas Tech · neutral site

vs James Madison

The coaching staff

Oregon

Nebraska

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources