Saturday, October 17

Florida State

3–3

Miami

5–0 · AP #3

7:00 PM ETHard Rock StadiumMiami Gardens, FL

Weather

Chance of thunderstorms82°FNE 13 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 70%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 2:31 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Miami Gardens · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Chance of thunderstorms82°FNE 13 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 70%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Florida State win probability

Miami 93%

Miami by 20.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Miami's case

Miami's offense leads its matchup in

Miami's offense was in the 86th percentile for success rate last season. Florida State's defense was in the 59th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Florida State's answer

Florida State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Miami's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Chance of precipitation at kickoff

The National Weather Service gives a 70% chance of precipitation at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State offense: 87th
Miami defense: 92nd

Show the underlying numbers

Florida State offensive per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Miami PPA allowed per play: 0.0392nd percentile · #10 nationally
Florida State success rate: 47%88th percentile · #17 nationally
Miami success rate allowed: 36%91st percentile · #13 nationally
Florida State points per game: 33.084th percentile · #22 nationally
Miami per game: 14.897th percentile · #5 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Florida State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 47.9%

Miami defense · 2025 season · 4 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.57
Rush success allowed: 38.8%

When Miami has the ball

Miami offense: 76th
Florida State defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Miami offensive PPA per play: 0.2276th percentile · #32 nationally
Florida State PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Miami success rate: 47%86th percentile · #20 nationally
Florida State success rate allowed: 41%59th percentile · #56 nationally
Miami points per game: 30.975th percentile · #35 nationally
Florida State points allowed per game: 22.069th percentile · #43 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Miami offense · 2025 season · 4 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 43.2%

Florida State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.13
Rush success allowed: 43.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Tommy Castellanos · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 121 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.0; over 120 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 61%; over 120 attempts with a result

300 of 309 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 240 short · 60 deep · 9 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Florida State offense in 2025

Tommy Castellanos

QB · 12 games

180/309 · 58% season

Passing yards: 2,760
Touchdowns: 15
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Florida · Nov 29, 2025: 17/28, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Thomas Castellanos

QB · 12 games

Carries: 137
Rushing yards: 557
Touchdowns: 9

Last game

Florida · Nov 29, 2025: 19 carries, 77 yds, 1 TD

Duce Robinson

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 56
Receiving yards: 1,074
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Florida · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 53 yds, 0 TD

Florida State player tables

Who is producing

Florida State player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Florida State — Passing production
Player
Thomas CastellanosQB	12	180 / 309	2,760	8.9	15	9
Kevin SperryQB	3	12 / 17	194	11.4	2	0
Brock GlennQB	4	6 / 10	69	6.9	2	0
Jaylen KingQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Michael GrantQB	1	1 / 1	14	14.0	0	0
Randy PittmanTE	1	1 / 1	4	4.0	1	0

6 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Miami player tables

Who is producing

Miami player production

2025 evidence · 16 games in this window · 16 with recorded rows in this view

Miami — Passing production
Player
Carson BeckQB	16	338 / 468	3,813	8.1	30	12
Emory WilliamsQB	4	13 / 19	156	8.2	0	0
Malachi ToneyWR	5	4 / 7	82	11.7	2	0
Luke NickelQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Mark Fletcher Jr.RB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Florida State's line averages 318.3 lbs against Miami's 263.5 lbs front — an edge of 54.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Florida State OLFlorida State OL vs Miami DL	318.3 lbs	263.5 lbs
Miami OLMiami OL vs Florida State DL	318.7 lbs	269.2 lbs

Florida State
Miami

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Florida State

Points per game: 33.0#22 nationally · 84th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 22.0#43 nationally · 69th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 13% of 2024 PPA returns · 7th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Miami

Points per game: 30.9#35 nationally · 75th percentile · 16 games
Points allowed per game: 14.8#5 nationally · 97th percentile · 16 games
Returning production: 13% of 2024 PPA returns · 5th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 122 of 122 with a class year

Recruiting

Florida State

2025 signing class · #19 nationally: 87th percentile · 244.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #18 nationally: 87th percentile · 1.20 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #19 nationally: 86th percentile · 828.5

Miami

2025 signing class · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 257.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #10 nationally: 93rd percentile · 1.56 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #15 nationally: 89th percentile · 874.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Florida State: solid line, circles · Miami: dashed line, squares

Florida State

Offense · 2025: 29.3 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.2 · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.8 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 244.1 pts · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 13% returning · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Miami

Offense · SP+ 2025: 34.2 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 14.3 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.8 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 257.7 pts · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 13% returning · 5th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Florida State's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 60 recorded plays
at Florida
L 21–40
47%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
Nov 21 · 68 recorded plays
at NC State
L 11–21
44%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 73 recorded plays
vs Virginia Tech
W 34–14
49%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Florida State

Head coach: Mike Norvell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Nolester, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Harris Jr.
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Tony White
career +21.8 SP+ defense

Miami

Head coach: Mario Cristobal
career −0.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Shannon Dawson
career +30.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Corey Hetherman
career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Miami leads 14–13 since 2000

2025 · Miami 28, Florida State 22
Doak Campbell Stadium
2024 · Miami 36, Florida State 14
Hard Rock Stadium
2023 · Florida State 27, Miami 20
Doak Campbell Stadium
2022 · Florida State 45, Miami 3
Hard Rock Stadium
2021 · Florida State 31, Miami 28
Doak Campbell Stadium
2020 · Miami 52, Florida State 10
Hard Rock Stadium
2019 · Miami 27, Florida State 10
Doak Campbell Stadium
2018 · Miami 28, Florida State 27
Hard Rock Stadium
2017 · Miami 24, Florida State 20
Doak Campbell Stadium
2016 · Florida State 20, Miami 19
Hard Rock Stadium
2015 · Florida State 29, Miami 24
Doak Campbell Stadium
2014 · Florida State 30, Miami 26
Hard Rock Stadium
2013 · Florida State 41, Miami 14
Doak Campbell Stadium
2012 · Florida State 33, Miami 20
Hard Rock Stadium
2011 · Florida State 23, Miami 19
Doak Campbell Stadium
2010 · Florida State 45, Miami 17
Hard Rock Stadium
2009 · Miami 38, Florida State 34
Doak Campbell Stadium
2008 · Florida State 41, Miami 39
Hard Rock Stadium
2007 · Miami 37, Florida State 29
Doak Campbell Stadium
2006 · Florida State 13, Miami 10
2005 · Florida State 10, Miami 7
Doak Campbell Stadium
2004 · Miami 16, Florida State 10
2003 · Miami 16, Florida State 14
Neutral site · Alfond Stadium
2003 · Miami 22, Florida State 14
Doak Campbell Stadium
2002 · Miami 28, Florida State 27
2001 · Miami 49, Florida State 27
Doak Campbell Stadium
2000 · Miami 27, Florida State 24

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Florida State: 12 games
Miami: 16 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Miami's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Florida State has no clear answer on this matchup

Chance of precipitation at kickoff

When each team has the ball

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Miami defense · 2025 season · 4 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Miami has the ball

Miami offense · 2025 season · 4 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Florida State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Tommy Castellanos

Thomas Castellanos

Duce Robinson

Florida State player production

Miami player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Florida State

Miami

Recruiting

Florida State

Miami

Season percentile profiles

Florida State

Miami

Florida State's recent games

at Florida

at NC State

vs Virginia Tech

The coaching staff

Florida State

Miami

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Miami's offense leads its matchup in