2026 Florida State vs 2026 Miami
Hypothetical
91% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Florida State Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.2, 75th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.6, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 44th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.1, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.5 pts, 89th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Miami Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts, 94th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida State Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 52nd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Miami Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 45th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Florida State | 2026 Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2271st percentile | 0.42100th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1620th percentile | −0.0685th percentile |
| Points per game | 31.055th percentile6 games | 49.6100th percentile5 games |
| per game | 25.340th percentile6 games | 9.8100th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 61st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 95th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 98th percentile
Campus distance
395 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Florida State OL vs 2026 Miami DL | 318.3 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
| 2026 Miami OL vs 2026 Florida State DL | 318.7 lbs | 269.2 lbs |
2026 Florida State line yards 3.45 · 2026 Miami stuff rate 24.5%
2026 Miami line yards 3.89 · 2026 Florida State stuff rate 19.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Miami leads 14–13 since 2000
Miami has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State 22–28 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2024 | Florida State 14–36 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2023 | Florida State 27–20 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2022 | Florida State 45–3 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2021 | Florida State 31–28 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2020 | Florida State 10–52 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2019 | Florida State 10–27 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2018 | Florida State 27–28 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2017 | Florida State 20–24 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2016 | Florida State 20–19 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2015 | Florida State 29–24 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2014 | Florida State 30–26 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2013 | Florida State 41–14 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2012 | Florida State 33–20 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2011 | Florida State 23–19 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2010 | Florida State 45–17 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2009 | Florida State 34–38 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2008 | Florida State 41–39 Miami | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2007 | Florida State 29–37 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2006 | Florida State 13–10 Miami | Miami home |
| 2005 | Florida State 10–7 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2004 | Florida State 10–16 Miami | Miami home |
| 2003bowl/playoff | Florida State 14–16 Miami | Neutral site |
| 2003 | Florida State 14–22 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2002 | Florida State 27–28 Miami | Miami home |
| 2001 | Florida State 27–49 Miami | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2000 | Florida State 24–27 Miami | Miami home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mike Norvell
OC
- Tim Harris Jr.
career average +29.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 21st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)
DC
- Tony White
career average +21.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mario Cristobal
OC
- Shannon Dawson
career average +30.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 56th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Hetherman
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Florida State at Miami · October 17, 2026
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