Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–3
at
Virginia Tech
4–2
3:30 PM ETLane StadiumBlacksburg, VA
Clear53°FNW 12 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 4:00 PM ET · National Weather Service
Blacksburg · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear53°FNW 12 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
37%
Georgia Tech win probability
Virginia Tech 63%
Virginia Tech by 4.9
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Georgia Tech's case
Georgia Tech's offense was in the 85th percentile for per play last season. Virginia Tech's defense was in the 3rd percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Virginia Tech's answer
Virginia Tech's offense was in the 48th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play last season. Georgia Tech's defense was in the 27th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Georgia Tech a 37% chance to win and predicts Virginia Tech by 4.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Haynes King · 91% of charted pass attempts
316 of 320 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 281 short · 35 deep · 4 not stated
The Georgia Tech offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
252/361 · 70% season
Last game
BYU · Dec 27, 2025: 22/40, 254 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
QB · 12 games
Last game
BYU · Dec 27, 2025: 7 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
BYU · Dec 27, 2025: 4 rec, 102 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haynes KingQB | 12 | 252 / 361 | 2,951 | 8.2 | 14 | 6 |
| Aaron PhiloQB | 1 | 21 / 28 | 373 | 13.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Graham KnowlesQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 84 | 84.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall NicholsP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyron DronesQB | 12 | 178 / 315 | 1,919 | 6.1 | 17 | 9 |
| William Watson IIIQB | 2 | 2 / 4 | 77 | 19.3 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Georgia Tech's line averages 313.2 lbs against Virginia Tech's 273.0 lbs front — an edge of 40.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech OLGeorgia Tech OL vs Virginia Tech DL | 313.2 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
| Virginia Tech OLVirginia Tech OL vs Georgia Tech DL | 320.6 lbs | 280.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Georgia Tech: solid line, circles · Virginia Tech: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
L 21–25
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 51 recorded plays
L 9–16
41%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 76 recorded plays
L 28–42
41%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Chris Weinke
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Unknown authorUnknown author, Public domain
George Godsey
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Jason Semore
career +30.4 SP+ defense
James Franklin
First season as Virginia Tech's head coach · career +16.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0
Ty Howle
career +36.3 SP+ offense
2025 · Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 20
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2024 · Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 6
Lane Stadium
2022 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 27
Lane Stadium
2021 · Virginia Tech 26, Georgia Tech 17
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2019 · Virginia Tech 45, Georgia Tech 0
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2018 · Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28
Lane Stadium
2017 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 22
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2016 · Georgia Tech 30, Virginia Tech 20
Lane Stadium
2015 · Virginia Tech 23, Georgia Tech 21
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2014 · Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24
Lane Stadium
2013 · Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2012 · Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17
Lane Stadium
2011 · Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 26
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2010 · Virginia Tech 28, Georgia Tech 21
Lane Stadium
2009 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 23
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2008 · Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17
Lane Stadium
2007 · Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2006 · Georgia Tech 38, Virginia Tech 27
Lane Stadium
2005 · Virginia Tech 51, Georgia Tech 7
Lane Stadium
2004 · Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 20
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season