Saturday, October 17

Georgia Tech

2–3

Virginia Tech

4–2

3:30 PM ETLane StadiumBlacksburg, VA

Weather

Clear53°FNW 12 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 4:00 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Blacksburg · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear53°FNW 12 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

37%

Georgia Tech win probability

Virginia Tech 63%

Virginia Tech by 4.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Virginia Tech's case

Virginia Tech's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Virginia Tech's offense is in the 69th percentile for per play this season. Georgia Tech's defense is in the 15th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Georgia Tech's answer

Georgia Tech has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Virginia Tech's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Virginia Tech a 63% chance to win and predicts Virginia Tech by 4.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech offense: 53rd
Virginia Tech defense: 66th

Show the underlying numbers

Georgia Tech offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Virginia Tech PPA allowed per play: 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
Georgia Tech: 44%58th percentile · #59 nationally
Virginia Tech success rate allowed: 34%90th percentile · #15 nationally
Georgia Tech points per game: 27.240th percentile · #83 nationally
Virginia Tech per game: 20.767th percentile · #45 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Georgia Tech offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 45.5%

Virginia Tech defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 39.1%

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Virginia Tech offense: 69th
Georgia Tech defense: 15th

Show the underlying numbers

Virginia Tech offensive PPA per play: 0.2169th percentile · #42 nationally
Georgia Tech PPA allowed per play: 0.1815th percentile · #114 nationally
Virginia Tech success rate: 46%69th percentile · #43 nationally
Georgia Tech success rate allowed: 42%40th percentile · #83 nationally
Virginia Tech points per game: 37.782nd percentile · #25 nationally
Georgia Tech points allowed per game: 25.834th percentile · #91 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Virginia Tech offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 45.9%

Georgia Tech defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.36
Rush success allowed: 43.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Alberto Mendoza · 99% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 38%
Usage: charted in this direction: 57 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.7; over 55 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 55 attempts with a result

151 of 154 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 141 short · 10 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Georgia Tech offense in 2026

Alberto Mendoza

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

107/153 · 70% season

Passing yards: 1,193
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Duke · Oct 10, 2026: 23/30, 218 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Justice Haynes

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 87
Rushing yards: 462
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Duke · Oct 10, 2026: 14 carries, 69 yds, 0 TD

Jordan Allen

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 28
Receiving yards: 312
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Duke · Oct 10, 2026: 10 rec, 99 yds, 1 TD

Georgia Tech player tables

Who is producing

Georgia Tech player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Georgia Tech — Passing production
Player
Alberto MendozaQB	5	107 / 153	1,193	7.8	7	3
Grady AdamsonQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Virginia Tech player tables

Who is producing

Virginia Tech player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Virginia Tech — Passing production
Player
Ethan GrunkemeyerQB	6	152 / 208	1,734	8.3	12	2
Bryce BakerQB	2	11 / 14	127	9.1	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Georgia Tech's line averages 313.2 lbs against Virginia Tech's 273.0 lbs front — an edge of 40.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Georgia Tech OLGeorgia Tech OL vs Virginia Tech DL	313.2 lbs	273.0 lbs
Virginia Tech OLVirginia Tech OL vs Georgia Tech DL	320.6 lbs	280.6 lbs

Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Georgia Tech

Points per game: 27.2#83 nationally · 40th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 25.8#91 nationally · 34th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 13% of 2025 PPA returns · 13th percentile
Upperclassmen: 54% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Virginia Tech

Points per game: 37.7#25 nationally · 82nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.7#45 nationally · 67th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 37% of 2025 PPA returns · 44th percentile
Upperclassmen: 33% · 122 of 122 with a class year

Recruiting

Georgia Tech

2026 signing class · #41 nationally: 71st percentile · 216.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #26 nationally: 82nd percentile · 0.59 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #34 nationally: 76th percentile · 751.6

Virginia Tech

2026 signing class · #30 nationally: 79th percentile · 226.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #34 nationally: 76th percentile · 0.51 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 769.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Georgia Tech: solid line, circles · Virginia Tech: dashed line, squares

Georgia Tech

Offense · 2026: 27.9 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7 · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 216.7 pts · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 13% returning · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Virginia Tech

Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.0 · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.4 · 68th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.2 pts · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Georgia Tech's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 57 recorded plays
vs Duke
W 28–25
46%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 71 recorded plays
at Stanford
L 27–34
45%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 46 recorded plays
vs Mercer
vs FCS
W 44–11
54%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Georgia Tech

Head coach: Brent Key
career −0.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Thomson200, CC0
Offensive coordinator: Chris Weinke
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Unknown authorUnknown author, Public domain; George Godsey
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jason Semore
career +30.4 SP+ defense

Virginia Tech

Head coach: James Franklin
First season as Virginia Tech's head coach · career +16.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Ty Howle
career +36.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brent Pry
no career rating on file
Photo: SneakinDeacon, CC BY-SA 2.0

Head-to-head

Virginia Tech leads 12–8 since 2000

2025 · Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 20
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2024 · Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 6
Lane Stadium
2022 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 27
Lane Stadium
2021 · Virginia Tech 26, Georgia Tech 17
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2019 · Virginia Tech 45, Georgia Tech 0
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2018 · Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28
Lane Stadium
2017 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 22
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2016 · Georgia Tech 30, Virginia Tech 20
Lane Stadium
2015 · Virginia Tech 23, Georgia Tech 21
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2014 · Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24
Lane Stadium
2013 · Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2012 · Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17
Lane Stadium
2011 · Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 26
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2010 · Virginia Tech 28, Georgia Tech 21
Lane Stadium
2009 · Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 23
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2008 · Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17
Lane Stadium
2007 · Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Bobby Dodd Stadium
2006 · Georgia Tech 38, Virginia Tech 27
Lane Stadium
2005 · Virginia Tech 51, Georgia Tech 7
Lane Stadium
2004 · Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 20
Bobby Dodd Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Georgia Tech: 5 games
Virginia Tech: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Virginia Tech's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Georgia Tech has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Virginia Tech defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Virginia Tech offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Georgia Tech defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Alberto Mendoza

Justice Haynes

Jordan Allen

Georgia Tech player production

Virginia Tech player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

Recruiting

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

Season percentile profiles

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech's recent games

vs Duke

at Stanford

vs Mercer

The coaching staff

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources