Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Southern Miss
1–4
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTM. M. Roberts StadiumHattiesburg, MS
Clear71°FNE 13 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 2:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hattiesburg · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear71°FNE 13 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
51%
Arkansas State win probability
Southern Miss 49%
Arkansas State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Southern Miss's case
Southern Miss's defense was in the 59th percentile for allowed per play last season. Arkansas State's offense was in the 19th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Arkansas State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against Southern Miss's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Southern Miss a 49% chance to win and predicts Arkansas State by 0.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jaylen Raynor · 99% of charted pass attempts
460 of 471 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 408 short · 52 deep · 11 not stated
The Arkansas State offense in 2025
QB · 13 games
332/500 · 66% season
Last game
Missouri State · Dec 18, 2025: 17/31, 288 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
QB · 13 games
Last game
Missouri State · Dec 18, 2025: 3 carries, −11 yds, 0 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
Missouri State · Dec 18, 2025: 6 rec, 166 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen RaynorQB | 13 | 332 / 500 | 3,364 | 6.7 | 19 | 11 |
| Josh FlowersQB | 2 | 2 / 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon BraxtonQB | 12 | 254 / 400 | 3,053 | 7.6 | 24 | 8 |
| Landy LyddyQB | 4 | 34 / 52 | 406 | 7.8 | 2 | 3 |
| Grant PageWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John WhiteQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | −1 | −1.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Arkansas State's line averages 310.8 lbs against Southern Miss's 285.8 lbs front — an edge of 25.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State OLArkansas State OL vs Southern Miss DL | 310.8 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| Southern Miss OLSouthern Miss OL vs Arkansas State DL | 309.2 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Arkansas State: solid line, circles · Southern Miss: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 18
W 34–28
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 81 recorded plays
W 30–29
44%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Nov 20 · 79 recorded plays
L 30–34
44%
Success rate
0.00
PPA / play
Garrett Altman
no career rating on file
Griff McCarley
career +33.5 SP+ defense
Kyle Cefalo
career +29.4 SP+ offense
2025 · Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 21
Centennial Bank Stadium
2024 · Arkansas State 44, Southern Miss 28
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2023 · Arkansas State 44, Southern Miss 37
Centennial Bank Stadium
2022 · Southern Miss 20, Arkansas State 19
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2008 · Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 24
Centennial Bank Stadium
2007 · Southern Miss 16, Arkansas State 10
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2005 · Southern Miss 31, Arkansas State 19
Neutral site
Evidence window: 2025 full season