Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Southern Miss
1–4
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTM. M. Roberts StadiumHattiesburg, MS
Clear71°FNE 13 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 2:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hattiesburg · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear71°FNE 13 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
51%
Arkansas State win probability
Southern Miss 49%
Arkansas State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Arkansas State's case
Arkansas State's offense is in the 91st percentile for success rate this season. Southern Miss's defense is in the 20th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers02 · Southern Miss's answer
Southern Miss's offense is in the 55th percentile for success rate this season. Arkansas State's defense is in the 7th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Arkansas State a 51% chance to win and predicts Arkansas State by 0.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Trey Owens · 100% of charted pass attempts
98 of 102 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 82 short · 16 deep · 4 not stated
The Arkansas State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
121/176 · 69% season
Last game
South Alabama · Oct 8, 2026: 32/43, 418 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
South Alabama · Oct 8, 2026: 4 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
South Alabama · Oct 8, 2026: 9 rec, 145 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey OwensQB | 6 | 121 / 176 | 1,461 | 8.3 | 9 | 6 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landy LyddyQB | 5 | 62 / 99 | 824 | 8.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Ethan HamptonQB | 3 | 45 / 75 | 419 | 5.6 | 2 | 4 |
| Eelijah SingletonWR | 2 | 1 / 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 1 |
| John WhiteQB | 1 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dusty ZimmerP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Sanders IIWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 75 | 75.0 | 1 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Arkansas State's line averages 310.8 lbs against Southern Miss's 285.8 lbs front — an edge of 25.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State OLArkansas State OL vs Southern Miss DL | 310.8 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| Southern Miss OLSouthern Miss OL vs Arkansas State DL | 309.2 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Arkansas State: solid line, circles · Southern Miss: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 8 · 70 recorded plays
L 49–56
64%
Success rate
0.28
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 55 recorded plays
L 20–23
42%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 61 recorded plays
W 17–14
48%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Garrett Altman
no career rating on file
Griff McCarley
career +33.5 SP+ defense
Kyle Cefalo
career +29.4 SP+ offense
2025 · Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 21
Centennial Bank Stadium
2024 · Arkansas State 44, Southern Miss 28
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2023 · Arkansas State 44, Southern Miss 37
Centennial Bank Stadium
2022 · Southern Miss 20, Arkansas State 19
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2008 · Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 24
Centennial Bank Stadium
2007 · Southern Miss 16, Arkansas State 10
M. M. Roberts Stadium
2005 · Southern Miss 31, Arkansas State 19
Neutral site
Evidence window: 2026 season to date