Saturday, October 17

BYU

5–0 · AP #8

Notre Dame

6–0 · AP #2

7:30 PM ET5:30 PM MTLaVell Edwards StadiumProvo, UT

Weather

Clear66°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 5:30 PM MT · Updated 12:31 PM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Provo · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear66°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

17%

BYU win probability

Notre Dame 83%

Notre Dame by 13.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Notre Dame's case

Notre Dame's defense leads its matchup in

Notre Dame's defense is in the 98th percentile for points allowed per game this season. BYU's offense is in the 66th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · BYU's answer

BYU has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Notre Dame's defense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Notre Dame a 83% chance to win and predicts Notre Dame by 13.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense: 88th
Notre Dame defense: 93rd

Show the underlying numbers

BYU offensive per play: 0.3088th percentile · #16 nationally
Notre Dame PPA allowed per play: −0.0993rd percentile · #11 nationally
BYU: 52%96th percentile · #7 nationally
Notre Dame success rate allowed: 33%94th percentile · #9 nationally
BYU points per game: 34.666th percentile · #46 nationally
Notre Dame points allowed per game: 11.098th percentile · #4 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

BYU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 53.7%

Notre Dame defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.15
Rush success allowed: 26.2%

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame offense: 98th
BYU defense: 91st

Show the underlying numbers

Notre Dame offensive PPA per play: 0.3798th percentile · #4 nationally
BYU PPA allowed per play: −0.0891st percentile · #12 nationally
Notre Dame success rate: 53%99th percentile · #3 nationally
BYU success rate allowed: 35%77th percentile · #32 nationally
Notre Dame points per game: 44.098th percentile · #4 nationally
BYU points allowed per game: 13.493rd percentile · #9 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Notre Dame offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 53.8%

BYU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Bear Bachmeier · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 26 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.5; over 26 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 26 attempts with a result

60 of 62 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 3 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 3 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 53 short · 7 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The BYU offense in 2026

Bear Bachmeier

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

77/116 · 66% season

Passing yards: 1,033
Touchdowns: 8
Interception: 1

Last game

Iowa State · Oct 9, 2026: 22/30, 329 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

LJ Martin

RB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 44
Rushing yards: 344
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

TCU · Oct 3, 2026: 2 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD

Legend Glasker

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 378
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Iowa State · Oct 9, 2026: 5 rec, 99 yds, 1 TD

BYU player tables

Who is producing

BYU player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

BYU — Passing production
Player
Bear BachmeierQB	5	77 / 116	1,033	8.9	8	1
Treyson BourguetQB	2	1 / 3	15	5.0	0	1

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Notre Dame player tables

Who is producing

Notre Dame player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Notre Dame — Passing production
Player
C.J. CarrQB	6	102 / 144	1,378	9.6	16	1
Noah GrubbsQB	3	14 / 22	164	7.5	1	0
Teddy JarrardQB	1	2 / 2	29	14.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

BYU's line averages 305.2 lbs against Notre Dame's 280.2 lbs front — an edge of 25.0 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
BYU OLBYU OL vs Notre Dame DL	305.2 lbs	280.2 lbs
Notre Dame OLNotre Dame OL vs BYU DL	308.1 lbs	271.2 lbs

BYU
Notre Dame

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

BYU

Points per game: 34.6#46 nationally · 66th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 13.4#9 nationally · 93rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 79% of 2025 PPA returns · 90th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 149 of 149 with a class year

Notre Dame

Points per game: 44.0#4 nationally · 98th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 11.0#4 nationally · 98th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 51% of 2025 PPA returns · 61st percentile
Upperclassmen: 32% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

BYU

2026 signing class · #21 nationally: 85th percentile · 237.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #59 nationally: 58th percentile · 689.4

Notre Dame

2026 signing class · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 299.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #6 nationally: 96th percentile · 1.88 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #6 nationally: 96th percentile · 953.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

BYU: solid line, circles · Notre Dame: dashed line, squares

BYU

Offense · 2026: 35.0 · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.8 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 237.3 pts · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Notre Dame

Offense · SP+ 2026: 41.0 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.3 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 299.3 pts · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 51% returning · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

BYU's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 9 · 62 recorded plays
vs Iowa State
W 24–10
48%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 63 recorded plays
at TCU
W 17–10
32%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 41 recorded plays
at Colorado State
W 41–23
66%
Success rate
0.61
PPA / play

The coaching staff

BYU

Head coach: Kalani Sitake
career +6.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Aaron Roderick
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kelly Poppinga
career +31.5 SP+ defense

Notre Dame

Head coach: Marcus Freeman
career +19.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Mike Denbrock
career +34.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Aaron Henry
Co-defensive coordinator · career +20.9 SP+ defense; Chris Ash
career +20.9 SP+ defense
Photo: WOSN, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Notre Dame leads 5–1 since 2000

2022 · Notre Dame 28, BYU 20
Neutral site · Allegiant Stadium
2013 · Notre Dame 23, BYU 13
Notre Dame Stadium
2012 · Notre Dame 17, BYU 14
Notre Dame Stadium
2005 · Notre Dame 49, BYU 23
Notre Dame Stadium
2004 · BYU 20, Notre Dame 17
LaVell Edwards Stadium
2003 · Notre Dame 33, BYU 14
Notre Dame Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

BYU: 5 games
Notre Dame: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Notre Dame's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

BYU has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Notre Dame defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

BYU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Bear Bachmeier

LJ Martin

Legend Glasker

BYU player production

Notre Dame player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

BYU

Notre Dame

Recruiting

BYU

Notre Dame

Season percentile profiles

BYU

Notre Dame

BYU's recent games

vs Iowa State

at TCU

at Colorado State

The coaching staff

BYU

Notre Dame

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Notre Dame's defense leads its matchup in