Saturday, October 17

Hawai'i

1–5

New Mexico

4–1

10:30 PM ET4:30 PM HSTClarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexHonolulu, HI

Weather

Isolated rain85°FNE 20 mphGusts 28 mphPrecip 17%

At kickoff · 4:30 PM HST · Updated 6:01 AM HST · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Honolulu · local time (HST)

Kickoff hour

Isolated rain85°FNE 20 mphGusts 28 mphPrecip 17%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

12%

Hawai'i win probability

New Mexico 88%

New Mexico by 16.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.8 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · New Mexico's case

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in allowed

New Mexico's defense was in the 64th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Hawai'i's offense was in the 37th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Hawai'i's answer

Hawai'i has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against New Mexico's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 28 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Hawai'i has the ball

Hawai'i offense: 48th
New Mexico defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Hawai'i offensive per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
New Mexico PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Hawai'i success rate: 41%37th percentile · #86 nationally
New Mexico success rate allowed: 40%64th percentile · #50 nationally
Hawai'i points per game: 29.059th percentile · #56 nationally
New Mexico per game: 22.367th percentile · #46 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Hawai'i offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.49
Rush success: 35.4%

New Mexico defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.27
Rush success allowed: 36.4%

When New Mexico has the ball

New Mexico offense: 56th
Hawai'i defense: 45th

Show the underlying numbers

New Mexico offensive PPA per play: 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
Hawai'i PPA allowed per play: 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
New Mexico success rate: 42%44th percentile · #76 nationally
Hawai'i success rate allowed: 42%46th percentile · #74 nationally
New Mexico points per game: 27.147th percentile · #73 nationally
Hawai'i points allowed per game: 24.155th percentile · #62 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

New Mexico offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.40
Rush success: 41.9%

Hawai'i defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.42
Rush success allowed: 45.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Micah Alejado · 78% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 163 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.4; over 163 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 163 attempts with a result

376 of 385 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 326 short · 50 deep · 9 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Hawai'i offense in 2025

Micah Alejado

QB · 11 games

285/430 · 66% season

Passing yards: 3,106
Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 9

Last game

California · Dec 24, 2025: 32/46, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Landon Sims

RB · 13 games

Carries: 122
Rushing yards: 559
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

California · Dec 24, 2025: 9 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD

Pofele Ashlock

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 76
Receiving yards: 827
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

California · Dec 24, 2025: 14 rec, 123 yds, 2 TD

Hawai'i player tables

Who is producing

Hawai'i player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Hawai'i — Passing production
Player
Micah AlejadoQB	11	285 / 430	3,106	7.2	24	9
Luke WeaverQB	5	63 / 105	628	6.0	6	3
Dermaricus DavisQB	1	1 / 3	10	3.3	0	0
Tama UiliataWR	2	1 / 2	34	17.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

New Mexico player tables

Who is producing

New Mexico player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

New Mexico — Passing production
Player
Jack LayneQB	13	213 / 327	2,486	7.6	13	10
James LaubsteinQB	3	11 / 17	96	5.6	2	0
DJ McKinneyRB	2	1 / 3	9	3.0	1	0
Michael BuckleyWR	2	1 / 2	41	20.5	1	0
Jaxton EckDL	1	1 / 1	30	30.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Hawai'i's line averages 300.0 lbs against New Mexico's 250.8 lbs front — an edge of 49.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Hawai'i OLHawai'i OL vs New Mexico DL	300.0 lbs	250.8 lbs
New Mexico OLNew Mexico OL vs Hawai'i DL	295.6 lbs	267.6 lbs

Hawai'i
New Mexico

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Hawai'i

Points per game: 29.0#56 nationally · 59th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 24.1#62 nationally · 55th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 46% of 2024 PPA returns · 43rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 113 of 113 with a class year

New Mexico

Points per game: 27.1#73 nationally · 47th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 22.3#46 nationally · 67th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 13% of 2024 PPA returns · 5th percentile
Upperclassmen: 52% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Hawai'i

2025 signing class · #124 nationally: 9th percentile · 102.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #122 nationally: 10th percentile · −1.11 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #120 nationally: 11th percentile · 481.2

New Mexico

2025 signing class · #136 nationally: 0th percentile · 10.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #136 nationally: 0th percentile · −2.46 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #131 nationally: 2nd percentile · 378.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Hawai'i: solid line, circles · New Mexico: dashed line, squares

Hawai'i

Offense · 2025: 27.3 · 52nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 27.3 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.7 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 102.0 pts · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 46% returning · 43rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

New Mexico

Offense · SP+ 2025: 25.4 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 26.1 · 52nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.6 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 10.3 pts · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 13% returning · 5th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Hawai'i's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 24
vs California
W 35–31
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 58 recorded plays
vs Wyoming
W 27–7
34%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Nov 21 · 36 recorded plays
at UNLV
L 10–38
31%
Success rate
−0.01
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Hawai'i

Head coach: Timmy Chang
career −12.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

New Mexico

Head coach: Jason Eck
career +0.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Todd R. Berenger, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Luke Schleusner
career +25.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Spence Nowinsky
career +26.9 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

New Mexico leads 4–3 since 2000

2024 · Hawai'i 38, New Mexico 30
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
2023 · New Mexico 42, Hawai'i 21
University Stadium (NM)
2020 · Hawai'i 39, New Mexico 33
Aloha Stadium
2019 · Hawai'i 45, New Mexico 31
University Stadium (NM)
2016 · New Mexico 28, Hawai'i 21
Aloha Stadium
2015 · New Mexico 28, Hawai'i 27
University Stadium (NM)
2012 · New Mexico 35, Hawai'i 23
Aloha Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Hawai'i: 13 games
New Mexico: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Hawai'i has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Hawai'i has the ball

Hawai'i offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

New Mexico defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When New Mexico has the ball

New Mexico offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Hawai'i defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Micah Alejado

Landon Sims

Pofele Ashlock

Hawai'i player production

New Mexico player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Recruiting

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Season percentile profiles

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Hawai'i's recent games

vs California

vs Wyoming

at UNLV

The coaching staff

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in allowed