2026 Hawai'i vs 2026 New Mexico

Hypothetical

New Mexico by 18.5

91% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Hawai'iIn-season results −7.7Preseason baseline −1.8

New MexicoIn-season results +12.0Preseason baseline −3.0

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Hawai'i	2026 New Mexico
Offensive / play	0.0215th percentile	0.1962nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.229th percentile	−0.1899th percentile
Points per game	16.77th percentile6 games	43.497th percentile5 games
per game	25.735th percentile6 games	10.699th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Hawai'i2026 New Mexico

Momentum

Hawai'i→ steady (−4 pctl over 3 seasons)

New Mexico↗ rising (+66 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Hawai'i

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 11th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 16th percentile

Matching its talent (+5)

2026 New Mexico

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 10th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 80th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+69)

Campus distance

3225 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Hawai'i OL vs 2026 New Mexico DL	300.0 lbs	250.8 lbs
2026 New Mexico OL vs 2026 Hawai'i DL	295.6 lbs	267.6 lbs

2026 Hawai'i line yards 3.19 · 2026 New Mexico stuff rate 24.7%

2026 New Mexico line yards 3.27 · 2026 Hawai'i stuff rate 14.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · New Mexico leads 4–3 since 2000

Hawai'i has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2024	Hawai'i 38–30 New Mexico	Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Hawai'i home
2023	Hawai'i 21–42 New Mexico	University Stadium (NM) · New Mexico home
2020	Hawai'i 39–33 New Mexico	Aloha Stadium · Hawai'i home
2019	Hawai'i 45–31 New Mexico	University Stadium (NM) · New Mexico home
2016	Hawai'i 21–28 New Mexico	Aloha Stadium · Hawai'i home
2015	Hawai'i 27–28 New Mexico	University Stadium (NM) · New Mexico home
2012	Hawai'i 23–35 New Mexico	Aloha Stadium · Hawai'i home

Coaching & program context

2026 Hawai'i

Timmy Chang

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 64% of its run–pass plays, 100th percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.0 plays a game, 88th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 New Mexico

Jason Eck

Luke Schleusner

career average +25.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 31% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)

Spence Nowinsky

career average +26.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.