Saturday, October 17

Houston

5–1 · AP #20

Oklahoma State

4–1 · AP #18

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTTDECU StadiumHouston, TX

Weather

Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Houston · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

85%

Houston win probability

Oklahoma State 15%

Houston by 15.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Houston's case

Houston's defense leads its matchup in

Houston's defense was in the 64th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Oklahoma State's offense was in the 1st percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Oklahoma State's answer

No clear statistical strength for Oklahoma State

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Oklahoma State unit ranked well below the Houston unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Houston a 85% chance to win and predicts Houston by 15.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Houston has the ball

Houston offense: 25th
Oklahoma State defense: 6th

Show the underlying numbers

Houston offensive per play: 0.1125th percentile · #97 nationally
Oklahoma State PPA allowed per play: 0.266th percentile · #125 nationally
Houston: 41%41st percentile · #80 nationally
Oklahoma State success rate allowed: 44%21st percentile · #107 nationally
Houston points per game: 29.160th percentile · #55 nationally
Oklahoma State points allowed per game: 33.37th percentile · #126 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Houston offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 44.1%

Oklahoma State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 43.3%

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State offense: 1st
Houston defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Oklahoma State offensive PPA per play: −0.011st percentile · #134 nationally
Houston PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Oklahoma State success rate: 34%2nd percentile · #133 nationally
Houston success rate allowed: 41%54th percentile · #63 nationally
Oklahoma State points per game: 14.21st percentile · #134 nationally
Houston points allowed per game: 22.864th percentile · #47 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Oklahoma State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.19
Rush success: 35.4%

Houston defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 47.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Conner Weigman · 94% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 47%
Usage: charted in this direction: 147 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.8; over 147 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 65%; over 147 attempts with a result

311 of 320 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 271 short · 40 deep · 9 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (47%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.5 over 70 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Houston offense in 2025

Conner Weigman

QB · 13 games

232/356 · 65% season

Passing yards: 2,705
Touchdowns: 25
Interceptions: 9

Last game

LSU · Dec 27, 2025: 28/37, 230 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

Dean Connors

RB · 13 games

Carries: 200
Rushing yards: 977
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

LSU · Dec 27, 2025: 16 carries, 126 yds, 1 TD

Tanner Koziol

TE · 13 games

Receptions: 74
Receiving yards: 727
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

LSU · Dec 27, 2025: 9 rec, 76 yds, 1 TD

Houston player tables

Who is producing

Houston player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Houston — Passing production
Player
Conner WeigmanQB	13	232 / 356	2,705	7.6	25	9
Zeon ChrissQB	4	10 / 21	108	5.1	1	1

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Oklahoma State player tables

Who is producing

Oklahoma State player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Oklahoma State — Passing production
Player
Zane FloresQB	9	155 / 262	1,454	5.5	3	7
Sam JacksonWR	7	35 / 66	351	5.3	1	2
Noah WaltersQB	2	6 / 14	72	5.1	1	0
Hauss HejnyQB	1	5 / 10	96	9.6	1	0
Banks BowenQB	2	3 / 5	4	0.8	0	0
Trenten HowlandRB	3	4 / 5	39	7.8	0	1
Gavin FreemanWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Shamar RigbyWR	1	1 / 1	63	63.0	1	0
Terrill DavisWR	1	1 / 1	10	10.0	0	0

9 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Houston's line averages 306.2 lbs against Oklahoma State's 280.3 lbs front — an edge of 25.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Houston OLHouston OL vs Oklahoma State DL	306.2 lbs	280.3 lbs
Oklahoma State OLOklahoma State OL vs Houston DL	310.3 lbs	294.1 lbs

Houston
Oklahoma State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Houston

Points per game: 29.1#55 nationally · 60th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 22.8#47 nationally · 64th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 98th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Oklahoma State

Points per game: 14.2#134 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 33.3#126 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 45% of 2024 PPA returns · 41st percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Recruiting

Houston

2025 signing class · #52 nationally: 62nd percentile · 198.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #55 nationally: 60th percentile · 0.21 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #66 nationally: 51st percentile · 656.7

Oklahoma State

2025 signing class · #53 nationally: 61st percentile · 198.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 0.30 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #49 nationally: 64th percentile · 702.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Houston: solid line, circles · Oklahoma State: dashed line, squares

Houston

Offense · 2025: 31.5 · 68th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 23.0 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.1 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 198.7 pts · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 98th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Oklahoma State

Offense · SP+ 2025: 15.2 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 31.6 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 198.6 pts · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 45% returning · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Houston's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 27
vs LSU · neutral site
W 38–35
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 74 recorded plays
at Baylor
W 31–24
46%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 72 recorded plays
vs TCU
L 14–17
36%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Houston

Head coach: Willie Fritz
career +0.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Slade Nagle
career +29.0 SP+ offense
Photo: KJ 26 88, CC0
Defensive coordinator: Austin Armstrong
career +23.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Tammy Anthony Baker, CC BY 2.0

Oklahoma State

Head coach: Eric Morris
First season as Oklahoma State's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Sean Brophy
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Skyler Cassity
career +26.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Houston leads 3–2 since 2000

2025 · Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17
Boone Pickens Stadium
2023 · Oklahoma State 43, Houston 30
TDECU Stadium
2009 · Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35
Boone Pickens Stadium
2008 · Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37
Boone Pickens Stadium
2006 · Houston 34, Oklahoma State 25
Robertson Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Houston: 13 games
Oklahoma State: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Houston's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

No clear statistical strength for Oklahoma State

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Houston has the ball

Houston offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Oklahoma State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Houston defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Conner Weigman

Dean Connors

Tanner Koziol

Houston player production

Oklahoma State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Houston

Oklahoma State

Recruiting

Houston

Oklahoma State

Season percentile profiles

Houston

Oklahoma State

Houston's recent games

vs LSU · neutral site

at Baylor

vs TCU

The coaching staff

Houston

Oklahoma State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Houston's defense leads its matchup in