Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–2
at
Texas Tech
5–0 · AP #10
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTJones AT&T StadiumLubbock, TX
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 3:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Lubbock · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
7%
Arizona State win probability
Texas Tech 93%
Texas Tech by 20.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Texas Tech's case
Texas Tech's defense was in the 99th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Arizona State's offense was in the 24th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Arizona State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against Texas Tech's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Arizona State's leading passer threw 61% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Sam Leavitt · 61% of charted pass attempts
236 of 239 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 203 short · 33 deep · 3 not stated
The Arizona State offense in 2025
QB · 7 games
145/239 · 61% season
Last game
Houston · Oct 25, 2025: 18/35, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Arizona · Nov 28, 2025: 13 carries, 63 yds, 0 TD
WR · 9 games
Last game
Arizona · Nov 28, 2025: 2 rec, 22 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LeavittQB | 7 | 145 / 239 | 1,628 | 6.8 | 10 | 3 |
| Jeff SimsQB | 7 | 105 / 188 | 1,261 | 6.7 | 10 | 6 |
| Jordyn TysonWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kanyon FloydP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Behren MortonQB | 12 | 219 / 333 | 2,780 | 8.3 | 22 | 6 |
| Will HammondQB | 7 | 68 / 108 | 668 | 6.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Mitch GriffisQB | 5 | 26 / 36 | 357 | 9.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Lloyd Jones IIIQB | 1 | 4 / 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Holden PhillipsQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob RodriguezLB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Arizona State's line averages 316.7 lbs against Texas Tech's 310.6 lbs front — an edge of 6.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona State OLArizona State OL vs Texas Tech DL | 316.7 lbs | 310.6 lbs |
| Texas Tech OLTexas Tech OL vs Arizona State DL | 304.5 lbs | 279.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Arizona State: solid line, circles · Texas Tech: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 31
L 39–42
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 55 recorded plays
L 7–23
31%
Success rate
−0.14
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 72 recorded plays
W 42–17
38%
Success rate
0.31
PPA / play
Kenny Dillingham
career +0.7 SP+ overall
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Marcus Arroyo
career +27.1 SP+ offense
Brian Ward
career +26.1 SP+ defense
Mack Leftwich
career +34.9 SP+ offense
Rob Greene
Co-defensive coordinator · career +19.2 SP+ defense
Shiel Wood
career +19.2 SP+ defense
2025 · Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Mountain America Stadium
2024 · Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 22
Jones AT&T Stadium
2017 · Texas Tech 52, Arizona State 45
Jones AT&T Stadium
2016 · Arizona State 68, Texas Tech 55
Mountain America Stadium
2013 · Texas Tech 37, Arizona State 23
Neutral site · Qualcomm Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season