2026 Arizona State vs 2026 Texas Tech

Hypothetical

Texas Tech by 18.1

90% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Arizona StatePreseason baseline +9.4In-season results −5.7

Texas TechPreseason baseline +24.7In-season results −2.9

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Arizona State	2026 Texas Tech
Offensive / play	0.0727th percentile	0.1962nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	−0.0685th percentile
Points per game	32.661st percentile5 games	34.869th percentile5 games
per game	27.823rd percentile5 games	16.284th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Arizona State2026 Texas Tech

Momentum

Arizona State↘ falling (−17 pctl over 3 seasons)

Texas Tech↗ rising (+33 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Arizona State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 68th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 58th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

2026 Texas Tech

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 79th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 93rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+15)

Campus distance

580 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Arizona State OL vs 2026 Texas Tech DL	316.7 lbs	310.6 lbs
2026 Texas Tech OL vs 2026 Arizona State DL	304.5 lbs	279.4 lbs

2026 Arizona State line yards 3.02 · 2026 Texas Tech stuff rate 20.9%

2026 Texas Tech line yards 3.14 · 2026 Arizona State stuff rate 15.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Texas Tech leads 3–2 since 2000

Arizona State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Arizona State 26–22 Texas Tech	Mountain America Stadium · Arizona State home
2024	Arizona State 22–30 Texas Tech	Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home
2017	Arizona State 45–52 Texas Tech	Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home
2016	Arizona State 68–55 Texas Tech	Mountain America Stadium · Arizona State home
2013bowl/playoff	Arizona State 23–37 Texas Tech	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham

Marcus Arroyo

career average +27.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 79th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.4 plays a game, 50th percentile)

Brian Ward

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Texas Tech

Joey McGuire

Mack Leftwich

career average +34.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.2 plays a game, 58th percentile)

Rob Greene (co-DC)
Shiel Wood

career average +19.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.