Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
at
Syracuse
2–3
7:30 PM ETJMA Wireless DomeSyracuse, NY
Played indoors at JMA Wireless Dome.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
80%
Louisville win probability
Syracuse 20%
Louisville by 11.7
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Louisville's case
Louisville's defense was in the 84th percentile for allowed per play last season. Syracuse's offense was in the 8th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Syracuse's answer
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Syracuse unit ranked well below the Louisville unit it faced.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Louisville a 80% chance to win and predicts Louisville by 11.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Miller Moss · 91% of charted pass attempts
349 of 356 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 311 short · 38 deep · 7 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.1 over 110 attempts with a result.
The Louisville offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
244/380 · 64% season
Last game
Toledo · Dec 23, 2025: 16/24, 153 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 9 games
Last game
Toledo · Dec 23, 2025: 10 carries, 102 yds, 2 TD
WR · 11 games
Last game
SMU · Nov 22, 2025: 5 rec, 46 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller MossQB | 12 | 244 / 380 | 2,679 | 7.1 | 16 | 7 |
| Deuce AdamsQB | 3 | 15 / 21 | 112 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brady AllenQB | 2 | 8 / 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 | 2 |
| Caullin LacyWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie CollinsQB | 7 | 97 / 181 | 1,042 | 5.8 | 6 | 10 |
| Steven AngeliQB | 4 | 97 / 155 | 1,317 | 8.5 | 10 | 2 |
| Joseph FilardiQB | 4 | 31 / 65 | 226 | 3.5 | 1 | 3 |
| Luke CarneyQB | 2 | 5 / 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Louisville's line averages 304.7 lbs against Syracuse's 282.6 lbs front — an edge of 22.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville OLLouisville OL vs Syracuse DL | 304.7 lbs | 282.6 lbs |
| Syracuse OLSyracuse OL vs Louisville DL | 314.6 lbs | 276.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Louisville: solid line, circles · Syracuse: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 23
W 27–22
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 58 recorded plays
W 41–0
55%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 38 recorded plays
L 6–38
34%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Mark Ivey
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense
Steve Ellis
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense
John Scott Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +24.7 SP+ defense
Vince Kehres
career +24.7 SP+ defense
2022 · Syracuse 31, Louisville 7
JMA Wireless Dome
2021 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 3
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2020 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 0
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2019 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 34
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2018 · Syracuse 54, Louisville 23
JMA Wireless Dome
2017 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2016 · Louisville 62, Syracuse 28
JMA Wireless Dome
2015 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2014 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 6
JMA Wireless Dome
2012 · Syracuse 45, Louisville 26
JMA Wireless Dome
2011 · Louisville 27, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2010 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome
2009 · Louisville 10, Syracuse 9
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2008 · Syracuse 28, Louisville 21
JMA Wireless Dome
2007 · Syracuse 38, Louisville 35
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2006 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 13
JMA Wireless Dome
2005 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2003 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome
Evidence window: 2025 full season