Saturday, October 17

Louisville

3–3

Syracuse

2–3

7:30 PM ETJMA Wireless DomeSyracuse, NY

Weather

Played indoors at JMA Wireless Dome.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

80%

Louisville win probability

Syracuse 20%

Louisville by 11.7

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Louisville's case

Louisville's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Louisville's offense is in the 89th percentile for points per game this season. Syracuse's defense is in the 46th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Syracuse's answer

Syracuse's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Syracuse's offense is in the 62nd percentile for points per game this season. Louisville's defense is in the 24th percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Louisville a 80% chance to win and predicts Louisville by 11.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville offense: 96th
Syracuse defense: 70th

Show the underlying numbers

Louisville offensive per play: 0.3496th percentile · #6 nationally
Syracuse PPA allowed per play: 0.0070th percentile · #39 nationally
Louisville: 50%88th percentile · #18 nationally
Syracuse success rate allowed: 40%53rd percentile · #66 nationally
Louisville points per game: 39.589th percentile · #16 nationally
Syracuse points allowed per game: 24.046th percentile · #74 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Louisville offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.42
Rush success: 49.9%

Syracuse defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.22
Rush success allowed: 47.7%

When Syracuse has the ball

Syracuse offense: 32nd
Louisville defense: 32nd

Show the underlying numbers

Syracuse offensive PPA per play: 0.0932nd percentile · #91 nationally
Louisville PPA allowed per play: 0.1232nd percentile · #93 nationally
Syracuse success rate: 42%36th percentile · #88 nationally
Louisville success rate allowed: 41%47th percentile · #74 nationally
Syracuse points per game: 32.862nd percentile · #53 nationally
Louisville points allowed per game: 27.724th percentile · #103 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Syracuse offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.34
Rush success: 44.1%

Louisville defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 45.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Lincoln Kienholz · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 45 attempts
Yards / attempt: 13.6; over 45 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 76%; over 45 attempts with a result

109 of 110 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 93 short · 16 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Louisville offense in 2026

Lincoln Kienholz

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

107/154 · 69% season

Passing yards: 1,534
Touchdowns: 9
Interception: 1

Last game

Florida State · Oct 9, 2026: 11/15, 140 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Isaac Brown

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 74
Rushing yards: 557
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Florida State · Oct 9, 2026: 17 carries, 235 yds, 2 TD

Tre Richardson

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 445
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Florida State · Oct 9, 2026: 1 rec, 0 yds, 0 TD

Louisville player tables

Who is producing

Louisville player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Louisville — Passing production
Player
Lincoln KienholzQB	6	107 / 154	1,534	10.0	9	1
Davin WydnerQB	1	3 / 4	19	4.8	1	0
Briggs CherryQB	1	2 / 2	24	12.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Syracuse player tables

Who is producing

Syracuse player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Syracuse — Passing production
Player
Steven AngeliQB	3	57 / 103	730	7.1	4	5
Amari OdomQB	3	36 / 47	391	8.3	6	2
Malachi NelsonQB	2	16 / 31	217	7.0	1	0
Danny LauterQB	1	2 / 6	50	8.3	1	0
Jimmy GreggP	1	1 / 1	12	12.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Louisville's line averages 304.7 lbs against Syracuse's 282.6 lbs front — an edge of 22.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Louisville OLLouisville OL vs Syracuse DL	304.7 lbs	282.6 lbs
Syracuse OLSyracuse OL vs Louisville DL	314.6 lbs	276.5 lbs

Louisville
Syracuse

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Louisville

Points per game: 39.5#16 nationally · 89th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 27.7#103 nationally · 24th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 35% of 2025 PPA returns · 40th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Syracuse

Points per game: 32.8#53 nationally · 62nd percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 24.0#74 nationally · 46th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 35% of 2025 PPA returns · 41st percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Louisville

2026 signing class · #48 nationally: 66th percentile · 211.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #54 nationally: 61st percentile · 0.21 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #37 nationally: 74th percentile · 740.0

Syracuse

2026 signing class · #35 nationally: 75th percentile · 224.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #40 nationally: 72nd percentile · 0.44 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #35 nationally: 75th percentile · 745.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Louisville: solid line, circles · Syracuse: dashed line, squares

Louisville

Offense · 2026: 38.0 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.0 · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 211.7 pts · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Syracuse

Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.1 · 38th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.6 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 224.8 pts · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Louisville's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 9 · 56 recorded plays
vs Florida State
W 44–20
54%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 54 recorded plays
at NC State
L 28–31
48%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 75 recorded plays
vs Wake Forest
L 27–30
43%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Louisville

Head coach: Jeff Brohm
career +7.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Brian Brohm
career +33.4 SP+ offense
Photo: Winnipeg Blue Bombers, CC BY 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Mark Ivey
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense; Steve Ellis
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense

Syracuse

Head coach: Fran Brown
career −3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Nixon
career +28.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mike Johnson
Co-offensive coordinator · career +28.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0
Defensive coordinator: John Scott Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +24.7 SP+ defense; Vince Kehres
career +24.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Louisville leads 13–5 since 2000

2022 · Syracuse 31, Louisville 7
JMA Wireless Dome
2021 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 3
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2020 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 0
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2019 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 34
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2018 · Syracuse 54, Louisville 23
JMA Wireless Dome
2017 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2016 · Louisville 62, Syracuse 28
JMA Wireless Dome
2015 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2014 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 6
JMA Wireless Dome
2012 · Syracuse 45, Louisville 26
JMA Wireless Dome
2011 · Louisville 27, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2010 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome
2009 · Louisville 10, Syracuse 9
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2008 · Syracuse 28, Louisville 21
JMA Wireless Dome
2007 · Syracuse 38, Louisville 35
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2006 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 13
JMA Wireless Dome
2005 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2003 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Louisville: 6 games
Syracuse: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Louisville's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Syracuse's offense leads its matchup in scoring

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Syracuse defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Syracuse has the ball

Syracuse offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Louisville defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Lincoln Kienholz

Isaac Brown

Tre Richardson

Louisville player production

Syracuse player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Louisville

Syracuse

Recruiting

Louisville

Syracuse

Season percentile profiles

Louisville

Syracuse

Louisville's recent games

vs Florida State

at NC State

vs Wake Forest

The coaching staff

Louisville

Syracuse

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources