Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
1–5
at
Bowling Green
2–4
12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry StadiumBowling Green, OH
Clear49°FNW 9 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:31 PM ET · National Weather Service
Bowling Green · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear49°FNW 9 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
25%
Ball State win probability
Bowling Green 75%
Bowling Green by 9.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Ball State's case
Ball State's defense was in the 36th percentile for allowed per play last season. Bowling Green's offense was in the 5th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Bowling Green's answer
Bowling Green's defense was in the 60th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Ball State's offense was in the 0th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Ball State a 25% chance to win and predicts Bowling Green by 9.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Kiael Kelly · 98% of charted pass attempts
265 of 273 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 232 short · 33 deep · 8 not stated
The Ball State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
153/272 · 56% season
Last game
Miami (OH) · Nov 29, 2025: 14/23, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
QB · 12 games
Last game
Miami (OH) · Nov 29, 2025: 16 carries, 61 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Miami (OH) · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 54 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiael KellyQB | 12 | 153 / 272 | 1,560 | 5.7 | 10 | 8 |
| Ty RobinsonWR | 2 | 2 / 3 | 77 | 25.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan LefflerQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Qian MagwoodWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew PyneQB | 6 | 94 / 151 | 882 | 5.8 | 4 | 5 |
| Hunter NajmQB | 5 | 33 / 66 | 473 | 7.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Lucian Anderson IIIQB | 2 | 26 / 41 | 245 | 6.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Baron MayQB | 1 | 12 / 22 | 142 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 |
| RJ Garcia IIWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 73 | 73.0 | 1 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Ball State's line averages 296.5 lbs against Bowling Green's 267.9 lbs front — an edge of 28.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Ball State OLBall State OL vs Bowling Green DL | 296.5 lbs | 267.9 lbs |
| Bowling Green OLBowling Green OL vs Ball State DL | 306.6 lbs | 278.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Ball State: solid line, circles · Bowling Green: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 45 recorded plays
L 24–45
33%
Success rate
−0.16
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 61 recorded plays
L 9–38
25%
Success rate
−0.22
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 56 recorded plays
L 9–24
30%
Success rate
−0.10
PPA / play
Mike Uremovich
career −23.0 SP+ overall
Jeff Knowles
career +32.0 SP+ defense
Greg Nosal
career +23.6 SP+ offense
Joe Bowden
no career rating on file
2024 · Bowling Green 38, Ball State 13
Scheumann Stadium
2023 · Bowling Green 24, Ball State 21
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2015 · Bowling Green 48, Ball State 10
Scheumann Stadium
2014 · Ball State 41, Bowling Green 24
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2009 · Bowling Green 31, Ball State 17
Scheumann Stadium
2005 · Bowling Green 40, Ball State 31
Scheumann Stadium
2004 · Bowling Green 51, Ball State 13
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2003 · Bowling Green 41, Ball State 14
Scheumann Stadium
2002 · Bowling Green 38, Ball State 20
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season