Saturday, October 17

Rice

1–5

Tulsa

3–3

4:30 PM ET3:30 PM CTRice StadiumHouston, TX

Weather

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Houston · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

44%

Rice win probability

Tulsa 56%

Tulsa by 2.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Rice's case

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Rice's defense was in the 52nd percentile for success rate allowed last season. Tulsa's offense was in the 31st percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Tulsa's answer

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Tulsa's defense was in the 50th percentile for allowed per play last season. Rice's offense was in the 7th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Rice a 44% chance to win and predicts Tulsa by 2.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense: 7th
Tulsa defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Rice offensive PPA per play: 0.047th percentile · #126 nationally
Tulsa PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Rice success rate: 36%6th percentile · #128 nationally
Tulsa success rate allowed: 43%38th percentile · #85 nationally
Rice points per game: 19.111th percentile · #121 nationally
Tulsa per game: 28.931st percentile · #94 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Rice offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 35.4%

Tulsa defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 41.2%

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense: 25th
Rice defense: 10th

Show the underlying numbers

Tulsa offensive PPA per play: 0.1125th percentile · #97 nationally
Rice PPA allowed per play: 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
Tulsa success rate: 40%31st percentile · #94 nationally
Rice success rate allowed: 41%52nd percentile · #66 nationally
Tulsa points per game: 23.227th percentile · #100 nationally
Rice points allowed per game: 32.99th percentile · #124 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Tulsa offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 45.9%

Rice defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.55
Rush success allowed: 46.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Chase Jenkins · 85% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 70 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.9; over 70 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 66%; over 70 attempts with a result

170 of 172 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 144 short · 26 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Rice offense in 2025

Chase Jenkins

QB · 12 games

119/172 · 69% season

Passing yards: 1,025
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 2

Last game

South Florida · Nov 29, 2025: 6/9, 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Quinton Jackson

RB · 13 games

Carries: 180
Rushing yards: 889
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Texas State · Jan 2, 2026: 16 carries, 78 yds, 0 TD

Aaron Turner

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 63
Receiving yards: 398
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Texas State · Jan 2, 2026: 10 rec, 24 yds, 1 TD

Rice player tables

Who is producing

Rice player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Rice — Passing production
Player
Chase JenkinsQB	12	119 / 172	1,025	6.0	9	2
Drew DevillierQB	6	10 / 21	123	5.9	1	0
Patrick Crayton Jr.QB	2	7 / 15	73	4.9	1	2
Lucas ScheerhornQB	2	9 / 13	40	3.1	0	0
Quinton JacksonRB	1	3 / 3	8	2.7	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Tulsa player tables

Who is producing

Tulsa player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Tulsa — Passing production
Player
Baylor HayesQB	10	186 / 316	2,159	6.8	12	6
Kirk FrancisQB	3	53 / 88	493	5.6	3	4
Stephen KittlemanQB	1	2 / 3	18	6.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Rice's line averages 307.7 lbs against Tulsa's 263.8 lbs front — an edge of 43.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Rice OLRice OL vs Tulsa DL	307.7 lbs	263.8 lbs
Tulsa OLTulsa OL vs Rice DL	301.3 lbs	265.6 lbs

Rice
Tulsa

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Rice

Points per game: 19.1#121 nationally · 11th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 32.9#124 nationally · 9th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 75% of 2024 PPA returns · 78th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Tulsa

Points per game: 23.2#100 nationally · 27th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 28.9#94 nationally · 31st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 99% of 2024 PPA returns · 94th percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Rice

2025 signing class · #100 nationally: 27th percentile · 146.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #108 nationally: 21st percentile · −0.71 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #106 nationally: 21st percentile · 530.1

Tulsa

2025 signing class · #109 nationally: 20th percentile · 137.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #92 nationally: 33rd percentile · −0.53 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #85 nationally: 37th percentile · 594.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Rice: solid line, circles · Tulsa: dashed line, squares

Rice

Offense · 2025: 17.7 · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.9 · 18th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 146.6 pts · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 75% returning · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Tulsa

Offense · SP+ 2025: 21.7 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.1 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.4 · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 137.8 pts · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 99% returning · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Rice's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 2
vs Texas State · neutral site
L 10–41
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 40 recorded plays
at South Florida
L 3–52
25%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 61 recorded plays
vs North Texas
L 24–56
46%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Rice

Head coach: Scott Abell
career −14.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Vince Munch
career +17.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jon Kay
career +33.9 SP+ defense

Tulsa

Head coach: Tre Lamb
career −10.0 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Kevin Barbay
career +25.0 SP+ offense; Ty Darlington
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Josh Reardon
career +33.1 SP+ defense; Mike Gray
Co-defensive coordinator · career +33.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Tulsa leads 10–5 since 2000

2023 · Rice 42, Tulsa 10
Chapman Stadium
2013 · Rice 30, Tulsa 27
Chapman Stadium
2012 · Tulsa 28, Rice 24
Chapman Stadium
2011 · Tulsa 38, Rice 20
Rice Stadium
2010 · Tulsa 64, Rice 27
Chapman Stadium
2009 · Tulsa 27, Rice 10
Rice Stadium
2008 · Tulsa 63, Rice 28
Chapman Stadium
2007 · Tulsa 48, Rice 43
Rice Stadium
2006 · Rice 41, Tulsa 38
2005 · Tulsa 41, Rice 21
Rice Stadium
2004 · Tulsa 39, Rice 22
2003 · Tulsa 31, Rice 28
Rice Stadium
2002 · Rice 33, Tulsa 18
2001 · Rice 59, Tulsa 32
Rice Stadium
2000 · Tulsa 23, Rice 16

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Rice: 13 games
Tulsa: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Rice's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Tulsa defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Rice defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Chase Jenkins

Quinton Jackson

Aaron Turner

Rice player production

Tulsa player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Rice

Tulsa

Recruiting

Rice

Tulsa

Season percentile profiles

Rice

Tulsa

Rice's recent games

vs Texas State · neutral site

at South Florida

vs North Texas

The coaching staff

Rice

Tulsa

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed