Saturday, October 17

Rice

1–5

Tulsa

3–3

4:30 PM ET3:30 PM CTRice StadiumHouston, TX

Weather

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Houston · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

44%

Rice win probability

Tulsa 56%

Tulsa by 2.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Rice's case

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Rice's defense is in the 53rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Tulsa's offense is in the 15th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Tulsa's answer

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Tulsa's defense is in the 61st percentile for allowed per play this season. Rice's offense is in the 8th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Rice a 44% chance to win and predicts Tulsa by 2.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense: 8th
Tulsa defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Rice offensive PPA per play: −0.038th percentile · #126 nationally
Tulsa PPA allowed per play: 0.0361st percentile · #54 nationally
Rice success rate: 39%22nd percentile · #108 nationally
Tulsa success rate allowed: 41%45th percentile · #76 nationally
Rice points per game: 17.07th percentile · #127 nationally
Tulsa per game: 23.352nd percentile · #67 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Rice offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 43.6%

Tulsa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.18
Rush success allowed: 41.5%

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense: 46th
Rice defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Tulsa offensive PPA per play: 0.1446th percentile · #71 nationally
Rice PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Tulsa success rate: 39%15th percentile · #117 nationally
Rice success rate allowed: 40%53rd percentile · #65 nationally
Tulsa points per game: 27.542nd percentile · #79 nationally
Rice points allowed per game: 27.526th percentile · #100 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Tulsa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 41.0%

Rice defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 43.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jacurri Brown · 88% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 38%
Usage: charted in this direction: 23 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.0; over 23 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 43%; over 23 attempts with a result

61 of 63 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 52 short · 9 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Rice offense in 2026

Jacurri Brown

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

37/76 · 49% season

Passing yards: 424
Touchdowns: 2
Interceptions: 2

Last game

East Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 2/10, 21 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Jacurri Brown

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 107
Rushing yards: 514
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

East Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 19 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD

Jordan Clark

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 15
Receiving yards: 171
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

East Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 69 yds, 0 TD

Rice player tables

Who is producing

Rice player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Rice — Passing production
Player
Jacurri BrownQB	6	37 / 76	424	5.6	2	2
Gael OchoaQB	2	4 / 9	65	7.2	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Tulsa player tables

Who is producing

Tulsa player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Tulsa — Passing production
Player
Baylor HayesQB	4	78 / 131	832	6.4	5	1
Dexter Williams IIQB	3	34 / 59	340	5.8	3	0
Oran Singleton Jr.WR	2	1 / 3	10	3.3	1	0
Max TulenP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Rice's line averages 307.7 lbs against Tulsa's 263.8 lbs front — an edge of 43.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Rice OLRice OL vs Tulsa DL	307.7 lbs	263.8 lbs
Tulsa OLTulsa OL vs Rice DL	301.3 lbs	265.6 lbs

Rice
Tulsa

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Rice

Points per game: 17.0#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 27.5#100 nationally · 26th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 39% of 2025 PPA returns · 50th percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 103 of 103 with a class year

Tulsa

Points per game: 27.5#79 nationally · 42nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 23.3#67 nationally · 52nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 41% of 2025 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Recruiting

Rice

2026 signing class · #104 nationally: 25th percentile · 176.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #108 nationally: 22nd percentile · −0.64 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #100 nationally: 28th percentile · 589.9

Tulsa

2026 signing class · #93 nationally: 33rd percentile · 179.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #91 nationally: 34th percentile · −0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #84 nationally: 39th percentile · 622.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Rice: solid line, circles · Tulsa: dashed line, squares

Rice

Offense · 2026: 16.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.8 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.0 pts · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 39% returning · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Tulsa

Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.9 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.1 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.4 pts · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Rice's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 67 recorded plays
at East Carolina
L 12–28
27%
Success rate
−0.29
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
vs UTSA
L 14–16
31%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 64 recorded plays
at Fresno State
L 24–38
52%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Rice

Head coach: Scott Abell
career −14.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Vince Munch
career +17.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jon Kay
career +33.9 SP+ defense

Tulsa

Head coach: Tre Lamb
career −10.0 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Kevin Barbay
career +25.0 SP+ offense; Ty Darlington
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Josh Reardon
career +33.1 SP+ defense; Mike Gray
Co-defensive coordinator · career +33.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Tulsa leads 10–5 since 2000

2023 · Rice 42, Tulsa 10
Chapman Stadium
2013 · Rice 30, Tulsa 27
Chapman Stadium
2012 · Tulsa 28, Rice 24
Chapman Stadium
2011 · Tulsa 38, Rice 20
Rice Stadium
2010 · Tulsa 64, Rice 27
Chapman Stadium
2009 · Tulsa 27, Rice 10
Rice Stadium
2008 · Tulsa 63, Rice 28
Chapman Stadium
2007 · Tulsa 48, Rice 43
Rice Stadium
2006 · Rice 41, Tulsa 38
2005 · Tulsa 41, Rice 21
Rice Stadium
2004 · Tulsa 39, Rice 22
2003 · Tulsa 31, Rice 28
Rice Stadium
2002 · Rice 33, Tulsa 18
2001 · Rice 59, Tulsa 32
Rice Stadium
2000 · Tulsa 23, Rice 16

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Rice: 6 games
Tulsa: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Rice's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Tulsa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Rice defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Jacurri Brown

Jacurri Brown

Jordan Clark

Rice player production

Tulsa player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Rice

Tulsa

Recruiting

Rice

Tulsa

Season percentile profiles

Rice

Tulsa

Rice's recent games

at East Carolina

vs UTSA

at Fresno State

The coaching staff

Rice

Tulsa

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed