01 · Kansas's case
Kansas's offense leads its matchup in
Kansas's offense was in the 91st percentile for success rate last season. Kansas State's defense was in the 67th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Kansas
2–3
at
Kansas State
3–2
12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTBill Snyder Family StadiumManhattan, KS
Weather
Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Manhattan · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
46%
Kansas win probability
Kansas State 54%
Kansas State by 1.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Kansas State's answer
Kansas State's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
Kansas State's offense was in the 71st percentile for per play last season. Kansas's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Kansas a 46% chance to win and predicts Kansas State by 1.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Kansas has the ball
- Kansas offense
- 71st
- Kansas State defense
- 59th
Show the underlying numbers
- Kansas offensive PPA per play
- 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
- Kansas State PPA allowed per play
- 0.1259th percentile · #54 nationally
- Kansas success rate
- 48%91st percentile · #13 nationally
- Kansas State success rate allowed
- 39%67th percentile · #45 nationally
- Kansas points per game
- 28.154th percentile · #63 nationally
- Kansas State per game
- 26.742nd percentile · #79 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Kansas offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.16
- Rush success
- 50.6%
Kansas State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.32
- Rush success allowed
- 44.4%
When Kansas State has the ball
- Kansas State offense
- 71st
- Kansas defense
- 10th
Show the underlying numbers
- Kansas State offensive PPA per play
- 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
- Kansas PPA allowed per play
- 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
- Kansas State success rate
- 41%33rd percentile · #92 nationally
- Kansas success rate allowed
- 41%53rd percentile · #64 nationally
- Kansas State points per game
- 29.462nd percentile · #52 nationally
- Kansas points allowed per game
- 26.841st percentile · #80 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Kansas State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.38
- Rush success
- 43.0%
Kansas defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.40
- Rush success allowed
- 44.6%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jalon Daniels · 93% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 46%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 142 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 6.9
- over 142 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 65%
- over 142 attempts with a result
312 of 318 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 254 short · 58 deep · 6 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Kansas offense in 2025
Jalon Daniels
QB · 12 games
198/319 · 62% season
- Passing yards
- 2,504
- Touchdowns
- 22
- Interceptions
- 7
Last game
Utah · Nov 28, 2025: 10/27, 187 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Daniel Hishaw Jr.
RB · 10 games
- Carries
- 124
- Rushing yards
- 587
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
Utah · Nov 28, 2025: 22 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Henderson Jr.
WR · 12 games
- Receptions
- 45
- Receiving yards
- 766
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
Utah · Nov 28, 2025: 3 rec, 113 yds, 0 TD
Kansas player tables
Who is producing
Kansas player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon DanielsQB | 12 | 198 / 319 | 2,504 | 7.8 | 22 | 7 |
| Cole BallardQB | 5 | 10 / 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah MarshallQB | 1 | 3 / 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kansas State player tables
Who is producing
Kansas State player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery JohnsonQB | 12 | 204 / 341 | 2,380 | 7.0 | 18 | 6 |
| Linkon CureTE | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Kansas's line averages 310.3 lbs against Kansas State's 279.0 lbs front — an edge of 31.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas OLKansas OL vs Kansas State DL | 310.3 lbs | 279.0 lbs |
| Kansas State OLKansas State OL vs Kansas DL | 305.2 lbs | 282.6 lbs |
- Kansas
- Kansas State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Kansas
- Points per game
- 28.1#63 nationally · 54th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 26.8#80 nationally · 41st percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 41% of 2024 PPA returns · 37th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 43% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Kansas State
- Points per game
- 29.4#52 nationally · 62nd percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 26.7#79 nationally · 42nd percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 69% of 2024 PPA returns · 74th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 44% · 110 of 110 with a class year
Recruiting
Kansas
- 2025 signing class · #72 nationally
- 47th percentile · 178.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #73 nationally
- 47th percentile · −0.03 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #48 nationally
- 65th percentile · 705.3
Kansas State
- 2025 signing class · #35 nationally
- 75th percentile · 213.8 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #42 nationally
- 70th percentile · 0.37 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #47 nationally
- 65th percentile · 705.9
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Kansas Offense · SP+ 2025: 30.9, 64th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas State Offense · SP+ 2025: 31.3, 67th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.5, 44th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas State Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.0, 57th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.7, 93rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas State Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kansas Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 178.3 pts, 47th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Kansas State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 213.8 pts, 75th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Kansas Experience · returning production 2025: 41% returning, 37th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Kansas State Experience · returning production 2025: 69% returning, 74th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Kansas: solid line, circles · Kansas State: dashed line, squares
Kansas
- Offense · 2025
- 30.9 · 64th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 28.5 · 44th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 1.7 · 93rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 178.3 pts · 47th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 41% returning · 37th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Kansas State
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 31.3 · 67th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 25.0 · 57th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 0.7 · 61st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 213.8 pts · 75th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 69% returning · 74th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Kansas's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 28 · 80 recorded plays
vs Utah
L 21–31
48%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 45 recorded plays
at Iowa State
L 14–38
51%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 72 recorded plays
at Arizona
L 20–24
46%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Kansas
- Head coach
Lance Leipold
career −3.6 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Andy Kotelnicki
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Jim Zebrowski
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Matt Lubick
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
D. K. McDonald
career +27.5 SP+ defense
Kansas State
- Head coach
Collin Klein
First season as Kansas State's head coach · no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
Sean Gleeson
career +24.1 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Jordan Peterson
career +24.7 SP+ defense
Head-to-head
Kansas State leads 22–4 since 2000
2025 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 17
Memorial Stadium
2024 · Kansas State 29, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2023 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 27
Memorial Stadium
2022 · Kansas State 47, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2021 · Kansas State 35, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2020 · Kansas State 55, Kansas 14
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2019 · Kansas State 38, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2018 · Kansas State 21, Kansas 17
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2017 · Kansas State 30, Kansas 20
Memorial Stadium
2016 · Kansas State 34, Kansas 19
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2015 · Kansas State 45, Kansas 14
Memorial Stadium
2014 · Kansas State 51, Kansas 13
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2013 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2012 · Kansas State 56, Kansas 16
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2011 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 21
Memorial Stadium
2010 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 7
Memorial Stadium
2009 · Kansas State 17, Kansas 10
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2008 · Kansas 52, Kansas State 21
Memorial Stadium
2007 · Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2006 · Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Memorial Stadium
2005 · Kansas State 12, Kansas 3
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2004 · Kansas 31, Kansas State 28
Memorial Stadium
2003 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2002 · Kansas State 64, Kansas 0
Memorial Stadium
2001 · Kansas State 40, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2000 · Kansas State 52, Kansas 13
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Kansas: 12 games
- Kansas State: 12 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD