Saturday, October 17

Kansas

2–3

Kansas State

3–2

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTBill Snyder Family StadiumManhattan, KS

Weather

Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Manhattan · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

46%

Kansas win probability

Kansas State 54%

Kansas State by 1.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Kansas's case

Kansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Kansas's offense is in the 80th percentile for per play this season. Kansas State's defense is in the 42nd percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Kansas State's answer

Kansas State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Kansas's offense.

03 · What could swing it

Kansas leans on its top passer

Kansas's leading passer has thrown 68% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas offense: 80th
Kansas State defense: 42nd

Show the underlying numbers

Kansas offensive PPA per play: 0.2580th percentile · #28 nationally
Kansas State PPA allowed per play: 0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Kansas: 48%80th percentile · #28 nationally
Kansas State success rate allowed: 35%82nd percentile · #26 nationally
Kansas points per game: 33.664th percentile · #50 nationally
Kansas State per game: 19.272nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Kansas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.37
Rush success: 48.7%

Kansas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.42
Rush success allowed: 42.0%

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State offense: 82nd
Kansas defense: 77th

Show the underlying numbers

Kansas State offensive PPA per play: 0.2782nd percentile · #25 nationally
Kansas PPA allowed per play: −0.0377th percentile · #30 nationally
Kansas State success rate: 51%92nd percentile · #12 nationally
Kansas success rate allowed: 34%86th percentile · #20 nationally
Kansas State points per game: 35.674th percentile · #36 nationally
Kansas points allowed per game: 21.861st percentile · #55 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kansas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.21
Rush success: 53.4%

Kansas defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.27
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Isaiah Marshall · 68% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 51%
Usage: charted in this direction: 39 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.6; over 39 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 39 attempts with a result

77 of 80 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 67 short · 10 deep · 3 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (51%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.9 over 16 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Kansas offense in 2026

Isaiah Marshall

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

76/141 · 54% season

Passing yards: 1,143
Touchdowns: 8
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Utah · Oct 10, 2026: 19/37, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Isaiah Marshall

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 60
Rushing yards: 255
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Utah · Oct 10, 2026: 9 carries, 21 yds, 1 TD

Nik McMillan

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 18
Receiving yards: 345
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Utah · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 89 yds, 1 TD

Kansas player tables

Who is producing

Kansas player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Kansas — Passing production
Player
Isaiah MarshallQB	5	76 / 141	1,143	8.1	8	4
Cole BallardQB	2	5 / 7	96	13.7	0	0
Chase JenkinsQB	1	3 / 3	65	21.7	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Kansas State player tables

Who is producing

Kansas State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Kansas State — Passing production
Player
Avery JohnsonQB	5	104 / 163	1,092	6.7	9	3
Blake BarnettQB	1	4 / 5	41	8.2	0	0
Jacob KnuthQB	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Kansas's line averages 310.3 lbs against Kansas State's 279.0 lbs front — an edge of 31.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Kansas OLKansas OL vs Kansas State DL	310.3 lbs	279.0 lbs
Kansas State OLKansas State OL vs Kansas DL	305.2 lbs	282.6 lbs

Kansas
Kansas State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kansas

Points per game: 33.6#50 nationally · 64th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 21.8#55 nationally · 61st percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 18% of 2025 PPA returns · 25th percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Kansas State

Points per game: 35.6#36 nationally · 74th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 71% of 2025 PPA returns · 85th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Kansas

2026 signing class · #61 nationally: 56th percentile · 197.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #66 nationally: 53rd percentile · 0.03 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #62 nationally: 55th percentile · 684.5

Kansas State

2026 signing class · #50 nationally: 64th percentile · 207.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #49 nationally: 65th percentile · 0.32 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 718.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Kansas: solid line, circles · Kansas State: dashed line, squares

Kansas

Offense · 2026: 29.4 · 65th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 197.0 pts · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 18% returning · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kansas State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.5 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.7 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 207.8 pts · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 71% returning · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kansas's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 60 recorded plays
at Utah
L 24–41
38%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 59 recorded plays
vs Middle Tennessee
W 55–0
61%
Success rate
0.43
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 75 recorded plays
vs Arizona State · neutral site
L 17–24
41%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Kansas

Head coach: Lance Leipold
career −3.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki
career +31.0 SP+ offense; Jim Zebrowski
career +31.0 SP+ offense; Matt Lubick
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: D. K. McDonald
career +27.5 SP+ defense

Kansas State

Head coach: Collin Klein
First season as Kansas State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Kansas State Wildcats: K-StateOnline, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Sean Gleeson
career +24.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jordan Peterson
career +24.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Kansas State leads 22–4 since 2000

2025 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 17
Memorial Stadium
2024 · Kansas State 29, Kansas 27
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2023 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 27
Memorial Stadium
2022 · Kansas State 47, Kansas 27
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2021 · Kansas State 35, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2020 · Kansas State 55, Kansas 14
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2019 · Kansas State 38, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2018 · Kansas State 21, Kansas 17
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2017 · Kansas State 30, Kansas 20
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2016 · Kansas State 34, Kansas 19
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2015 · Kansas State 45, Kansas 14
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2014 · Kansas State 51, Kansas 13
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2013 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 10
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2012 · Kansas State 56, Kansas 16
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2011 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 21
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2010 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 7
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2009 · Kansas State 17, Kansas 10
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2008 · Kansas 52, Kansas State 21
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2007 · Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
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2006 · Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
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2005 · Kansas State 12, Kansas 3
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2004 · Kansas 31, Kansas State 28
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2003 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 6
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2002 · Kansas State 64, Kansas 0
Memorial Stadium
2001 · Kansas State 40, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2000 · Kansas State 52, Kansas 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Kansas: 5 games
Kansas State: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Kansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Kansas State has no clear answer on this matchup

Kansas leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Kansas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Kansas defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Isaiah Marshall

Isaiah Marshall

Nik McMillan

Kansas player production

Kansas State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Kansas

Kansas State

Recruiting

Kansas

Kansas State

Season percentile profiles

Kansas

Kansas State

Kansas's recent games

at Utah

vs Middle Tennessee

vs Arizona State · neutral site

The coaching staff

Kansas

Kansas State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources