Saturday, October 17

Eastern Michigan

4–3

Toledo

4–2

3:30 PM ETRynearson StadiumYpsilanti, MI

Weather

Clear54°FNW 12 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 3:49 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Ypsilanti · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear54°FNW 12 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

29%

Eastern Michigan win probability

Toledo 71%

Toledo by 8.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Eastern Michigan's case

No clear statistical strength for Eastern Michigan

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Eastern Michigan unit ranked well below the Toledo unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Toledo's answer

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in

Toledo's defense was in the 98th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Eastern Michigan's offense was in the 33rd percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Eastern Michigan a 29% chance to win and predicts Toledo by 8.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Michigan offense: 65th
Toledo defense: 100th

Show the underlying numbers

Eastern Michigan offensive per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Toledo PPA allowed per play: −0.08100th percentile · #1 nationally
Eastern Michigan: 43%53rd percentile · #65 nationally
Toledo success rate allowed: 33%98th percentile · #4 nationally
Eastern Michigan points per game: 24.133rd percentile · #92 nationally
Toledo points allowed per game: 13.398th percentile · #4 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Eastern Michigan offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 45.3%

Toledo defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.32
Rush success allowed: 32.9%

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo offense: 65th
Eastern Michigan defense: 9th

Show the underlying numbers

Toledo offensive PPA per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Eastern Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.259th percentile · #123 nationally
Toledo success rate: 45%69th percentile · #43 nationally
Eastern Michigan success rate allowed: 44%24th percentile · #103 nationally
Toledo points per game: 30.873rd percentile · #37 nationally
Eastern Michigan points allowed per game: 29.826th percentile · #101 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Toledo offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 43.4%

Eastern Michigan defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 42.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Noah Kim · 100% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 170 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.6; over 169 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 169 attempts with a result

389 of 402 have a direction · 13 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 347 short · 42 deep · 13 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Eastern Michigan offense in 2025

Noah Kim

QB · 12 games

247/402 · 61% season

Passing yards: 2,817
Touchdowns: 18
Interceptions: 11

Last game

Western Michigan · Nov 25, 2025: 24/41, 327 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

Dontae McMillan

RB · 12 games

Carries: 177
Rushing yards: 1,014
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Western Michigan · Nov 25, 2025: 11 carries, 111 yds, 1 TD

Joshua Long

TE · 12 games

Receptions: 37
Receiving yards: 357
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Western Michigan · Nov 25, 2025: 2 rec, 21 yds, 0 TD

Eastern Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Eastern Michigan player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Eastern Michigan — Passing production
Player
Noah KimQB	12	247 / 402	2,817	7.0	18	11
Terry LockettWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Toledo player tables

Who is producing

Toledo player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Toledo — Passing production
Player
Tucker GleasonQB	12	207 / 320	2,515	7.9	21	9
Kalieb OsborneQB	7	32 / 52	427	8.2	3	0
John Alan RichterQB	3	17 / 25	153	6.1	3	1

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Eastern Michigan's line averages 302.8 lbs against Toledo's 260.9 lbs front — an edge of 41.9 lbs a man.

Toledo's front average is based on 25 of 26 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Eastern Michigan OLEastern Michigan OL vs Toledo DL	302.8 lbs	260.9 lbs
Toledo OLToledo OL vs Eastern Michigan DL	297.5 lbs	268.9 lbs

Eastern Michigan
Toledo

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Eastern Michigan

Points per game: 24.1#92 nationally · 33rd percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 29.8#101 nationally · 26th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 25% of 2024 PPA returns · 21st percentile
Upperclassmen: 58% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Toledo

Points per game: 30.8#37 nationally · 73rd percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 13.3#4 nationally · 98th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 69% of 2024 PPA returns · 72nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 44% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Recruiting

Eastern Michigan

2025 signing class · #97 nationally: 29th percentile · 151.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #93 nationally: 32nd percentile · −0.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #94 nationally: 30th percentile · 572.9

Toledo

2025 signing class · #73 nationally: 47th percentile · 175.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #78 nationally: 43rd percentile · −0.25 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #75 nationally: 44th percentile · 620.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Eastern Michigan: solid line, circles · Toledo: dashed line, squares

Eastern Michigan

Offense · 2025: 19.4 · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.1 · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.1 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 151.8 pts · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 25% returning · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Toledo

Offense · SP+ 2025: 25.8 · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 18.5 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.3 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 175.6 pts · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 69% returning · 72nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Eastern Michigan's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 25 · 62 recorded plays
vs Western Michigan
L 21–31
42%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 71 recorded plays
at Ball State
W 24–9
46%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 77 recorded plays
vs Bowling Green
W 27–21
40%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Eastern Michigan

Head coach: Chris Creighton
career −11.4 SP+ overall
Photo: The Ray Center - CHARACTER COUNTS!, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Mike Piatkowski
career +17.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kasey Teegardin
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Tate Omli
no career rating on file

Toledo

Head coach: Mike Jacobs
First season as Toledo's head coach · no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Cris Reisert
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Jahmal Brown
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Toledo leads 22–3 since 2000

2024 · Toledo 29, Eastern Michigan 28
Rynearson Stadium
2023 · Toledo 49, Eastern Michigan 23
Glass Bowl
2022 · Toledo 27, Eastern Michigan 24
Rynearson Stadium
2021 · Eastern Michigan 52, Toledo 49
Glass Bowl
2020 · Toledo 45, Eastern Michigan 28
Rynearson Stadium
2019 · Toledo 37, Eastern Michigan 34
Glass Bowl
2018 · Eastern Michigan 28, Toledo 26
Rynearson Stadium
2017 · Toledo 20, Eastern Michigan 15
Glass Bowl
2016 · Toledo 35, Eastern Michigan 20
Rynearson Stadium
2015 · Toledo 63, Eastern Michigan 20
Glass Bowl
2014 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 16
Rynearson Stadium
2013 · Toledo 55, Eastern Michigan 16
Glass Bowl
2012 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 47
Rynearson Stadium
2011 · Toledo 54, Eastern Michigan 16
Glass Bowl
2010 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 7
Rynearson Stadium
2009 · Toledo 47, Eastern Michigan 21
Glass Bowl
2008 · Toledo 41, Eastern Michigan 17
Rynearson Stadium
2007 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 28
Glass Bowl
2006 · Eastern Michigan 17, Toledo 13
Rynearson Stadium
2005 · Toledo 30, Eastern Michigan 3
Glass Bowl
2004 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 32
Rynearson Stadium
2003 · Toledo 49, Eastern Michigan 14
Glass Bowl
2002 · Toledo 65, Eastern Michigan 13
Rynearson Stadium
2001 · Toledo 28, Eastern Michigan 7
Glass Bowl
2000 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 14

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Eastern Michigan: 12 games
Toledo: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Eastern Michigan

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Michigan offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Toledo defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Eastern Michigan defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Noah Kim

Dontae McMillan

Joshua Long

Eastern Michigan player production

Toledo player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Eastern Michigan

Toledo

Recruiting

Eastern Michigan

Toledo

Season percentile profiles

Eastern Michigan

Toledo

Eastern Michigan's recent games

vs Western Michigan

at Ball State

vs Bowling Green

The coaching staff

Eastern Michigan

Toledo

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in