2026 Eastern Michigan vs 2026 Toledo
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.5, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Toledo Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.1, 33rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.3, 25th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Toledo Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Toledo Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.4 pts, 23rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Toledo Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.5 pts, 12th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning, 86th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Toledo Experience · returning production 2026: 66% returning, 78th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Eastern Michigan | 2026 Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0625th percentile | 0.2374th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1328th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 22.623rd percentile7 games | 36.779th percentile6 games |
| per game | 24.743rd percentile7 games | 25.241st percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 29th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 18th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 34th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 41st percentile
Campus distance
40 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Eastern Michigan OL vs 2026 Toledo DL | 302.8 lbs | 260.9 lbs |
| 2026 Toledo OL vs 2026 Eastern Michigan DL | 297.5 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
2026 Eastern Michigan line yards 3.01 · 2026 Toledo stuff rate 21.6%
2026 Toledo line yards 3.20 · 2026 Eastern Michigan stuff rate 19.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Toledo leads 22–3 since 2000
Toledo has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Eastern Michigan 28–29 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2023 | Eastern Michigan 23–49 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2022 | Eastern Michigan 24–27 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2021 | Eastern Michigan 52–49 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2020 | Eastern Michigan 28–45 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2019 | Eastern Michigan 34–37 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2018 | Eastern Michigan 28–26 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2017 | Eastern Michigan 15–20 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2016 | Eastern Michigan 20–35 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2015 | Eastern Michigan 20–63 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2014 | Eastern Michigan 16–52 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2013 | Eastern Michigan 16–55 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2012 | Eastern Michigan 47–52 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2011 | Eastern Michigan 16–54 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2010 | Eastern Michigan 7–42 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2009 | Eastern Michigan 21–47 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2008 | Eastern Michigan 17–41 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2007 | Eastern Michigan 28–52 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2006 | Eastern Michigan 17–13 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2005 | Eastern Michigan 3–30 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2004 | Eastern Michigan 32–42 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2003 | Eastern Michigan 14–49 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2002 | Eastern Michigan 13–65 Toledo | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2001 | Eastern Michigan 7–28 Toledo | Glass Bowl · Toledo home |
| 2000 | Eastern Michigan 14–42 Toledo | Eastern Michigan home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Chris Creighton
OC
- Mike Piatkowski
career average +17.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 92nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.0 plays a game, 55th percentile)
DC
- Kasey Teegardin (co-DC)
- Tate Omli
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mike Jacobs (First season as Toledo's head coach)
OC
- Cris Reisert (co-OC)
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread / run-pass option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 60th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)
DC
- Jahmal Brown
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Toledo at Eastern Michigan · October 17, 2026
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