Saturday, October 17

Central Michigan

3–3

Western Michigan

4–2

1:30 PM ETKelly/Shorts StadiumMount Pleasant, MI

Weather

Clear50°FNW 10 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM ET · Updated 2:03 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Mount Pleasant · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear50°FNW 10 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

28%

Central Michigan win probability

Western Michigan 72%

Western Michigan by 7.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Central Michigan's case

Central Michigan's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Central Michigan's defense was in the 76th percentile for allowed per play last season. Western Michigan's offense was in the 21st percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Western Michigan's answer

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in

Western Michigan's defense was in the 94th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Central Michigan's offense was in the 22nd percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Central Michigan a 28% chance to win and predicts Western Michigan by 7.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Central Michigan has the ball

Central Michigan offense: 36th
Western Michigan defense: 87th

Show the underlying numbers

Central Michigan offensive PPA per play: 0.1436th percentile · #85 nationally
Western Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.0587th percentile · #15 nationally
Central Michigan: 41%33rd percentile · #91 nationally
Western Michigan success rate allowed: 38%84th percentile · #23 nationally
Central Michigan points per game: 22.522nd percentile · #105 nationally
Western Michigan points allowed per game: 17.494th percentile · #9 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Central Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 40.7%

Western Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 32.7%

When Western Michigan has the ball

Western Michigan offense: 21st
Central Michigan defense: 76th

Show the underlying numbers

Western Michigan offensive PPA per play: 0.1021st percentile · #103 nationally
Central Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.0876th percentile · #29 nationally
Western Michigan success rate: 42%50th percentile · #69 nationally
Central Michigan success rate allowed: 40%62nd percentile · #52 nationally
Western Michigan points per game: 24.936th percentile · #88 nationally
Central Michigan points allowed per game: 23.560th percentile · #55 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Western Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.05
Rush success: 48.1%

Central Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 41.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Joe Labas · 81% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 69 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.2; over 69 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 64%; over 69 attempts with a result

178 of 183 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 161 short · 17 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Central Michigan offense in 2025

Joe Labas

QB · 13 games

147/208 · 71% season

Passing yards: 1,854
Touchdowns: 13
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Northwestern · Dec 26, 2025: 21/25, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Angel H Flores

QB · 9 games

Carries: 107
Rushing yards: 527
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Northwestern · Dec 26, 2025: 4 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD

Langston Lewis

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 43
Receiving yards: 596
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Northwestern · Dec 26, 2025: 8 rec, 83 yds, 0 TD

Central Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Central Michigan player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Central Michigan — Passing production
Player
Joey LabasQB	13	147 / 208	1,854	8.9	13	6
Angel H FloresQB	9	19 / 28	195	7.0	2	1
Jadyn GlasserQB	1	7 / 9	78	8.7	0	0
Marcus BeamonQB	3	2 / 4	35	8.8	1	0
Ethan LaneQB	1	1 / 3	10	3.3	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Western Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Western Michigan player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Western Michigan — Passing production
Player
Broc LowryQB	14	166 / 262	1,803	6.9	9	3
Brady JonesQB	5	19 / 40	136	3.4	1	3
Mark KonecnyQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Ofa MataeleRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Central Michigan's line averages 287.6 lbs against Western Michigan's 265.6 lbs front — an edge of 22.0 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Central Michigan OLCentral Michigan OL vs Western Michigan DL	287.6 lbs	265.6 lbs
Western Michigan OLWestern Michigan OL vs Central Michigan DL	302.9 lbs	259.3 lbs

Central Michigan
Western Michigan

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Central Michigan

Points per game: 22.5#105 nationally · 22nd percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 23.5#55 nationally · 60th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 10% of 2024 PPA returns · 2nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Western Michigan

Points per game: 24.9#88 nationally · 36th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 17.4#9 nationally · 94th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 96th percentile
Upperclassmen: 52% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Central Michigan

2025 signing class · #113 nationally: 17th percentile · 128.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #105 nationally: 23rd percentile · −0.67 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #121 nationally: 10th percentile · 481.2

Western Michigan

2025 signing class · #104 nationally: 24th percentile · 141.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #94 nationally: 31st percentile · −0.55 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #105 nationally: 22nd percentile · 534.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Central Michigan: solid line, circles · Western Michigan: dashed line, squares

Central Michigan

Offense · 2025: 17.6 · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.7 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.7 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 128.4 pts · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 10% returning · 2nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Western Michigan

Offense · SP+ 2025: 21.7 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.8 · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.3 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 141.9 pts · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Central Michigan's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 26
vs Northwestern · neutral site
L 7–34
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 67 recorded plays
vs Toledo
L 3–21
30%
Success rate
−0.04
PPA / play
Nov 19 · 67 recorded plays
at Kent State
W 28–16
39%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Central Michigan

Head coach: Matt Drinkall
career −8.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Derek Fulton
Co-offensive coordinator · career +17.6 SP+ offense; Jim Chapin
career +17.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Sean Cronin
career +25.7 SP+ defense

Western Michigan

Head coach: Lance Taylor
career −9.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Walt Bell
career +27.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Duane Vaughn
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Greer Martini
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Western Michigan leads 15–11 since 2000

2025 · Western Michigan 24, Central Michigan 21
Waldo Stadium
2024 · Central Michigan 16, Western Michigan 14
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2023 · Western Michigan 38, Central Michigan 28
Waldo Stadium
2022 · Western Michigan 12, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2021 · Central Michigan 42, Western Michigan 30
Waldo Stadium
2020 · Western Michigan 52, Central Michigan 44
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2019 · Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 15
Waldo Stadium
2018 · Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2017 · Central Michigan 35, Western Michigan 28
Waldo Stadium
2016 · Western Michigan 49, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2015 · Western Michigan 41, Central Michigan 39
Waldo Stadium
2014 · Western Michigan 32, Central Michigan 20
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2013 · Central Michigan 27, Western Michigan 22
Waldo Stadium
2012 · Western Michigan 42, Central Michigan 31
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2011 · Western Michigan 44, Central Michigan 14
Waldo Stadium
2010 · Central Michigan 26, Western Michigan 22
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2009 · Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 23
Waldo Stadium
2008 · Central Michigan 38, Western Michigan 28
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2007 · Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 31
Waldo Stadium
2006 · Central Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2005 · Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 24
Waldo Stadium
2004 · Central Michigan 24, Western Michigan 21
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2003 · Western Michigan 44, Central Michigan 21
Waldo Stadium
2002 · Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2001 · Western Michigan 20, Central Michigan 17
Waldo Stadium
2000 · Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 17

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Central Michigan: 13 games
Western Michigan: 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Central Michigan's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Central Michigan has the ball

Central Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Western Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Western Michigan has the ball

Western Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Central Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Joe Labas

Angel H Flores

Langston Lewis

Central Michigan player production

Western Michigan player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Recruiting

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Season percentile profiles

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Central Michigan's recent games

vs Northwestern · neutral site

vs Toledo

at Kent State

The coaching staff

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in