2026 Central Michigan vs 2026 Western Michigan
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Central Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.2, 7th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.1, 24th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.5, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 178.9 pts, 31st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Western Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.4 pts, 19th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Central Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 62nd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Western Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 100% returning, 100th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Central Michigan | 2026 Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0625th percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1522nd percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 17.07th percentile6 games | 25.734th percentile6 games |
| per game | 26.330th percentile6 games | 17.382nd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 25th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 9th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 36th percentile
Campus distance
100 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Central Michigan OL vs 2026 Western Michigan DL | 287.6 lbs | 265.6 lbs |
| 2026 Western Michigan OL vs 2026 Central Michigan DL | 302.9 lbs | 259.3 lbs |
2026 Central Michigan line yards 3.33 · 2026 Western Michigan stuff rate 17.0%
2026 Western Michigan line yards 2.98 · 2026 Central Michigan stuff rate 14.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Western Michigan leads 15–11 since 2000
Western Michigan has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Central Michigan 21–24 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2024 | Central Michigan 16–14 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2023 | Central Michigan 28–38 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2022 | Central Michigan 10–12 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2021 | Central Michigan 42–30 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2020 | Central Michigan 44–52 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2019 | Central Michigan 15–31 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2018 | Central Michigan 10–35 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2017 | Central Michigan 35–28 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2016 | Central Michigan 10–49 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2015 | Central Michigan 39–41 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2014 | Central Michigan 20–32 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2013 | Central Michigan 27–22 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2012 | Central Michigan 31–42 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2011 | Central Michigan 14–44 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2010 | Central Michigan 26–22 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2009 | Central Michigan 34–23 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2008 | Central Michigan 38–28 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2007 | Central Michigan 34–31 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2006 | Central Michigan 31–7 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2005 | Central Michigan 24–31 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2004 | Central Michigan 24–21 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2003 | Central Michigan 21–44 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2002 | Central Michigan 10–35 Western Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2001 | Central Michigan 17–20 Western Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2000 | Central Michigan 21–17 Western Michigan | Central Michigan home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Matt Drinkall
OC
- Derek Fulton (co-OC)
- Jim Chapin
career average +17.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 32% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)
DC
- Sean Cronin
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lance Taylor
OC
- Walt Bell
career average +27.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.8 plays a game, 12th percentile)
DC
- Duane Vaughn (co-DC)
- Greer Martini
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Western Michigan at Central Michigan · October 17, 2026
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