Saturday, October 17

Duke

4–1

North Carolina

3–2

3:30 PM ETWallace Wade StadiumDurham, NC

Weather

Clear63°FN 12 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:17 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Durham · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear63°FN 12 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

62%

Duke win probability

North Carolina 38%

Duke by 4.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Duke's case

Duke's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Duke's offense was in the 89th percentile for points per game last season. North Carolina's defense was in the 52nd percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · North Carolina's answer

North Carolina has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Duke's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Duke a 62% chance to win and predicts Duke by 4.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Duke has the ball

Duke offense: 82nd
North Carolina defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Duke offensive per play: 0.2582nd percentile · #22 nationally
North Carolina PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Duke: 46%78th percentile · #31 nationally
North Carolina success rate allowed: 41%51st percentile · #67 nationally
Duke points per game: 34.689th percentile · #16 nationally
North Carolina points allowed per game: 24.552nd percentile · #66 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Duke offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 43.7%

North Carolina defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.29
Rush success allowed: 45.0%

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina offense: 10th
Duke defense: 16th

Show the underlying numbers

North Carolina offensive PPA per play: 0.0610th percentile · #119 nationally
Duke PPA allowed per play: 0.2216th percentile · #113 nationally
North Carolina success rate: 39%18th percentile · #112 nationally
Duke success rate allowed: 44%30th percentile · #95 nationally
North Carolina points per game: 19.312th percentile · #120 nationally
Duke points allowed per game: 29.427th percentile · #99 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

North Carolina offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.12
Rush success: 36.3%

Duke defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 48.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Darian Mensah · 99% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 211 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.2; over 211 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 211 attempts with a result

422 of 426 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 13 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 352 short · 70 deep · 4 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.6 over 78 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Duke offense in 2025

Darian Mensah

QB · 14 games

334/500 · 67% season

Passing yards: 3,973
Touchdowns: 34
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Arizona State · Dec 31, 2025: 29/51, 327 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

Nate Sheppard

RB · 14 games

Carries: 200
Rushing yards: 1,132
Touchdowns: 11

Last game

Arizona State · Dec 31, 2025: 22 carries, 170 yds, 1 TD

Cooper Barkate

WR · 14 games

Receptions: 72
Receiving yards: 1,106
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Arizona State · Dec 31, 2025: 4 rec, 37 yds, 1 TD

Duke player tables

Who is producing

Duke player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Duke — Passing production
Player
Darian MensahQB	14	334 / 500	3,973	7.9	34	6
Henry Belin IVQB	1	2 / 5	22	4.4	0	0
Que'Sean BrownWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

North Carolina player tables

Who is producing

North Carolina player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

North Carolina — Passing production
Player
Giovanni LopezQB	11	170 / 261	1,747	6.7	10	5
Max JohnsonQB	4	54 / 87	437	5.0	2	0
Au'Tori NewkirkQB	2	3 / 6	23	3.8	1	1
Jordan ShippWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Duke's line averages 306.8 lbs against North Carolina's 277.9 lbs front — an edge of 28.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Duke OLDuke OL vs North Carolina DL	306.8 lbs	277.9 lbs
North Carolina OLNorth Carolina OL vs Duke DL	316.3 lbs	264.7 lbs

Duke
North Carolina

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Duke

Points per game: 34.6#16 nationally · 89th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 29.4#99 nationally · 27th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 18% of 2024 PPA returns · 14th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 103 of 103 with a class year

North Carolina

Points per game: 19.3#120 nationally · 12th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 24.5#66 nationally · 52nd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 16% of 2024 PPA returns · 11th percentile
Upperclassmen: 33% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Duke

2025 signing class · #30 nationally: 79th percentile · 220.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #45 nationally: 67th percentile · 0.36 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #58 nationally: 57th percentile · 669.2

North Carolina

2025 signing class · #41 nationally: 70th percentile · 207.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #26 nationally: 81st percentile · 0.72 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #31 nationally: 77th percentile · 753.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Duke: solid line, circles · North Carolina: dashed line, squares

Duke

Offense · 2025: 34.8 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.2 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 220.9 pts · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 18% returning · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

North Carolina

Offense · SP+ 2025: 17.2 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.0 · 57th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.2 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 207.8 pts · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 16% returning · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Duke's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 31
vs Arizona State · neutral site
W 42–39
Play stats pending
Dec 6 · 70 recorded plays
vs Virginia · neutral site
W 27–20
44%
Success rate
0.21
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 75 recorded plays
vs Wake Forest
W 49–32
43%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Duke

Head coach: Manny Diaz
career +9.1 SP+ overall
Photo: User:Bremps, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jonathan Brewer
career +31.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jonathan Patke
career +28.1 SP+ defense

North Carolina

Head coach: Bill Belichick
career −6.6 SP+ overall
Photo: The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Bobby Petrino
career +33.0 SP+ offense
Photo: ~ (The Rebel At) ~, CC BY-SA 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Stephen Belichick
career +23.7 SP+ defense; Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career +23.7 SP+ defense; Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career +23.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

North Carolina leads 18–8 since 2000

2025 · Duke 32, North Carolina 25
Kenan Stadium
2024 · Duke 21, North Carolina 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2023 · North Carolina 47, Duke 45
Kenan Stadium
2022 · North Carolina 38, Duke 35
Wallace Wade Stadium
2021 · North Carolina 38, Duke 7
Kenan Stadium
2020 · North Carolina 56, Duke 24
Wallace Wade Stadium
2019 · North Carolina 20, Duke 17
Kenan Stadium
2018 · Duke 42, North Carolina 35
Wallace Wade Stadium
2017 · Duke 27, North Carolina 17
Kenan Stadium
2016 · Duke 28, North Carolina 27
Wallace Wade Stadium
2015 · North Carolina 66, Duke 31
Kenan Stadium
2014 · North Carolina 45, Duke 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2013 · Duke 27, North Carolina 25
Kenan Stadium
2012 · Duke 33, North Carolina 30
Wallace Wade Stadium
2011 · North Carolina 37, Duke 21
Kenan Stadium
2010 · North Carolina 24, Duke 19
Wallace Wade Stadium
2009 · North Carolina 19, Duke 6
Kenan Stadium
2008 · North Carolina 28, Duke 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2007 · North Carolina 20, Duke 14
Kenan Stadium
2006 · North Carolina 45, Duke 44
Wallace Wade Stadium
2005 · North Carolina 24, Duke 21
Kenan Stadium
2004 · North Carolina 40, Duke 17
Wallace Wade Stadium
2003 · Duke 30, North Carolina 22
Kenan Stadium
2002 · North Carolina 23, Duke 21
Wallace Wade Stadium
2001 · North Carolina 52, Duke 17
Kenan Stadium
2000 · North Carolina 59, Duke 21

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Duke: 14 games
North Carolina: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Duke's offense leads its matchup in scoring

North Carolina has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Duke has the ball

Duke offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

North Carolina defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Duke defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Darian Mensah

Nate Sheppard

Cooper Barkate

Duke player production

North Carolina player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Duke

North Carolina

Recruiting

Duke

North Carolina

Season percentile profiles

Duke

North Carolina

Duke's recent games

vs Arizona State · neutral site

vs Virginia · neutral site

vs Wake Forest

The coaching staff

Duke

North Carolina

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources