Saturday, October 17

Duke

4–1

North Carolina

3–2

3:30 PM ETWallace Wade StadiumDurham, NC

Weather

Clear63°FN 12 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:17 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Durham · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear63°FN 12 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

62%

Duke win probability

North Carolina 38%

Duke by 4.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Duke's case

Duke's defense leads its matchup in

Duke's defense is in the 91st percentile for points allowed per game this season. North Carolina's offense is in the 28th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · North Carolina's answer

North Carolina has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Duke's defense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Duke a 62% chance to win and predicts Duke by 4.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Duke has the ball

Duke offense: 85th
North Carolina defense: 66th

Show the underlying numbers

Duke offensive per play: 0.2985th percentile · #19 nationally
North Carolina PPA allowed per play: 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
Duke: 44%56th percentile · #61 nationally
North Carolina success rate allowed: 43%27th percentile · #101 nationally
Duke points per game: 34.066th percentile · #48 nationally
North Carolina points allowed per game: 19.074th percentile · #34 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Duke offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 41.6%

North Carolina defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.08
Rush success allowed: 46.0%

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina offense: 32nd
Duke defense: 66th

Show the underlying numbers

North Carolina offensive PPA per play: 0.0932nd percentile · #91 nationally
Duke PPA allowed per play: 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
North Carolina success rate: 44%53rd percentile · #64 nationally
Duke success rate allowed: 37%69th percentile · #43 nationally
North Carolina points per game: 23.428th percentile · #100 nationally
Duke points allowed per game: 14.491st percentile · #13 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

North Carolina offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 46.1%

Duke defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.12
Rush success allowed: 37.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Walker Eget · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 52 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.9; over 52 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 65%; over 52 attempts with a result

133 of 134 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 112 short · 21 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Duke offense in 2026

Walker Eget

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

84/134 · 63% season

Passing yards: 980
Touchdowns: 7
Interception: 1

Last game

Georgia Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 26/41, 259 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Nate Sheppard

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 118
Rushing yards: 743
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Georgia Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 27 carries, 99 yds, 2 TD

Jeremiah Hasley

TE · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 234
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Georgia Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 6 rec, 39 yds, 0 TD

Duke player tables

Who is producing

Duke player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Duke — Passing production
Player
Walker EgetQB	5	84 / 134	980	7.3	7	1
Dan MahanQB	3	6 / 9	126	14.0	3	0
Terry Walker IIIQB	1	2 / 4	44	11.0	0	0
Kade ReynoldsonP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

North Carolina player tables

Who is producing

North Carolina player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

North Carolina — Passing production
Player
Billy EdwardsQB	5	79 / 132	1,068	8.1	8	5
Miles O'NeillQB	1	3 / 6	22	3.7	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Duke's line averages 306.8 lbs against North Carolina's 277.9 lbs front — an edge of 28.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Duke OLDuke OL vs North Carolina DL	306.8 lbs	277.9 lbs
North Carolina OLNorth Carolina OL vs Duke DL	316.3 lbs	264.7 lbs

Duke
North Carolina

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Duke

Points per game: 34.0#48 nationally · 66th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 14.4#13 nationally · 91st percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 17% of 2025 PPA returns · 24th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 103 of 103 with a class year

North Carolina

Points per game: 23.4#100 nationally · 28th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 19.0#34 nationally · 74th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 28% of 2025 PPA returns · 34th percentile
Upperclassmen: 31% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Duke

2026 signing class · #71 nationally: 49th percentile · 189.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #57 nationally: 59th percentile · 0.13 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #69 nationally: 50th percentile · 668.5

North Carolina

2026 signing class · #19 nationally: 87th percentile · 247.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #22 nationally: 85th percentile · 0.83 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 767.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Duke: solid line, circles · North Carolina: dashed line, squares

Duke

Offense · 2026: 31.5 · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.4 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.3 pts · 49th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 17% returning · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

North Carolina

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 247.7 pts · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 28% returning · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Duke's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 79 recorded plays
at Georgia Tech
L 25–28
43%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 40 recorded plays
vs William & Mary
vs FCS
W 62–7
57%
Success rate
0.55
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 66 recorded plays
vs Stanford
W 35–7
52%
Success rate
0.45
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Duke

Head coach: Manny Diaz
career +9.1 SP+ overall
Photo: User:Bremps, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jonathan Brewer
career +31.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jonathan Patke
career +28.1 SP+ defense

North Carolina

Head coach: Bill Belichick
career −6.6 SP+ overall
Photo: The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Bobby Petrino
career +33.0 SP+ offense
Photo: ~ (The Rebel At) ~, CC BY-SA 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Stephen Belichick
career +23.7 SP+ defense; Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career +23.7 SP+ defense; Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career +23.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

North Carolina leads 18–8 since 2000

2025 · Duke 32, North Carolina 25
Kenan Stadium
2024 · Duke 21, North Carolina 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2023 · North Carolina 47, Duke 45
Kenan Stadium
2022 · North Carolina 38, Duke 35
Wallace Wade Stadium
2021 · North Carolina 38, Duke 7
Kenan Stadium
2020 · North Carolina 56, Duke 24
Wallace Wade Stadium
2019 · North Carolina 20, Duke 17
Kenan Stadium
2018 · Duke 42, North Carolina 35
Wallace Wade Stadium
2017 · Duke 27, North Carolina 17
Kenan Stadium
2016 · Duke 28, North Carolina 27
Wallace Wade Stadium
2015 · North Carolina 66, Duke 31
Kenan Stadium
2014 · North Carolina 45, Duke 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2013 · Duke 27, North Carolina 25
Kenan Stadium
2012 · Duke 33, North Carolina 30
Wallace Wade Stadium
2011 · North Carolina 37, Duke 21
Kenan Stadium
2010 · North Carolina 24, Duke 19
Wallace Wade Stadium
2009 · North Carolina 19, Duke 6
Kenan Stadium
2008 · North Carolina 28, Duke 20
Wallace Wade Stadium
2007 · North Carolina 20, Duke 14
Kenan Stadium
2006 · North Carolina 45, Duke 44
Wallace Wade Stadium
2005 · North Carolina 24, Duke 21
Kenan Stadium
2004 · North Carolina 40, Duke 17
Wallace Wade Stadium
2003 · Duke 30, North Carolina 22
Kenan Stadium
2002 · North Carolina 23, Duke 21
Wallace Wade Stadium
2001 · North Carolina 52, Duke 17
Kenan Stadium
2000 · North Carolina 59, Duke 21

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Duke: 5 games
North Carolina: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Duke's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

North Carolina has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Duke has the ball

Duke offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

North Carolina defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Duke defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Walker Eget

Nate Sheppard

Jeremiah Hasley

Duke player production

North Carolina player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Duke

North Carolina

Recruiting

Duke

North Carolina

Season percentile profiles

Duke

North Carolina

Duke's recent games

at Georgia Tech

vs William & Mary

vs Stanford

The coaching staff

Duke

North Carolina

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Duke's defense leads its matchup in