Friday, October 16

Purdue

3–3

Washington

3–3

8:00 PM ETRoss-Ade StadiumWest Lafayette, IN

Weather

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 8:00 PM ET · Updated 2:45 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

West Lafayette · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

43%

Purdue win probability

Washington 57%

Washington by 2.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Purdue's case

No clear statistical strength for Purdue

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Purdue unit ranked well below the Washington unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Washington's answer

Washington's offense leads its matchup in

Washington's offense was in the 93rd percentile for success rate last season. Purdue's defense was in the 5th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Purdue a 43% chance to win and predicts Washington by 2.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense: 21st
Washington defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

Purdue offensive per play: 0.1021st percentile · #103 nationally
Washington PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
Purdue success rate: 42%47th percentile · #73 nationally
Washington success rate allowed: 38%79th percentile · #29 nationally
Purdue points per game: 18.810th percentile · #123 nationally
Washington per game: 18.790th percentile · #15 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Purdue offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 42.1%

Washington defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.17
Rush success allowed: 39.6%

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense: 86th
Purdue defense: 3rd

Show the underlying numbers

Washington offensive PPA per play: 0.2986th percentile · #19 nationally
Purdue PPA allowed per play: 0.273rd percentile · #129 nationally
Washington success rate: 49%93rd percentile · #10 nationally
Purdue success rate allowed: 48%5th percentile · #129 nationally
Washington points per game: 34.188th percentile · #17 nationally
Purdue points allowed per game: 31.813th percentile · #117 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Washington offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.18
Rush success: 48.1%

Purdue defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 48.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ryan Browne · 83% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 138 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.2; over 138 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 64%; over 138 attempts with a result

329 of 339 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 298 short · 31 deep · 10 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (42%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.2 over 94 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Purdue offense in 2025

Ryan Browne

QB · 12 games

199/338 · 59% season

Passing yards: 2,153
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 10

Last game

Indiana · Nov 28, 2025: 25/47, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Devin Mockobee

RB · 8 games

Carries: 125
Rushing yards: 521
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Rutgers · Oct 25, 2025: 16 carries, 91 yds, 0 TD

Michael Jackson III

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 63
Receiving yards: 570
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Indiana · Nov 28, 2025: 6 rec, 66 yds, 0 TD

Purdue player tables

Who is producing

Purdue player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Purdue — Passing production
Player
Ryan BrowneQB	12	199 / 338	2,153	6.4	9	10
Malachi SingletonQB	8	38 / 64	439	6.9	5	2
Devin MockobeeRB	2	1 / 2	14	7.0	1	1

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Washington player tables

Who is producing

Washington player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Washington — Passing production
Player
Demond Williams Jr.QB	13	246 / 354	3,065	8.7	25	8
Kai HortonQB	4	7 / 13	98	7.5	0	0
Denzel BostonWR	2	2 / 2	15	7.5	1	0
Grady GrossPK	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Purdue's line averages 307.5 lbs against Washington's 277.6 lbs front — an edge of 29.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Purdue OLPurdue OL vs Washington DL	307.5 lbs	277.6 lbs
Washington OLWashington OL vs Purdue DL	321.6 lbs	279.3 lbs

Purdue
Washington

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Purdue

Points per game: 18.8#123 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 31.8#117 nationally · 13th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 54% of 2024 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Washington

Points per game: 34.1#17 nationally · 88th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 18.7#15 nationally · 90th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 42% of 2024 PPA returns · 39th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 105 of 105 with a class year

Recruiting

Purdue

2025 signing class · #99 nationally: 27th percentile · 147.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #66 nationally: 52nd percentile · 0.04 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #54 nationally: 60th percentile · 687.7

Washington

2025 signing class · #23 nationally: 84th percentile · 235.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 0.56 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #37 nationally: 73rd percentile · 720.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Purdue: solid line, circles · Washington: dashed line, squares

Purdue

Offense · 2025: 21.9 · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.9 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.8 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 147.1 pts · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 54% returning · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Washington

Offense · SP+ 2025: 34.5 · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 15.3 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.9 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 235.3 pts · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 42% returning · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Purdue's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 28 · 44 recorded plays
vs Indiana
L 3–56
34%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 35 recorded plays
at Washington
L 13–49
23%
Success rate
−0.19
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 33 recorded plays
vs Ohio State
L 10–34
36%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Purdue

Head coach: Barry Odom
career +6.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Josh Henson
career +34.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kevin Kane
career +28.5 SP+ defense

Washington

Head coach: Jedd Fisch
career +4.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Ryan Walters
career +19.8 SP+ defense
Photo: Mick Walker, CC BY-SA 4.0

Head-to-head

Washington leads 2–1 since 2000

2025 · Washington 49, Purdue 13
Husky Stadium
2002 · Purdue 34, Washington 24
Neutral site · Sun Bowl
2000 · Washington 34, Purdue 24
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Purdue: 12 games
Washington: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Purdue

Washington's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Washington defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Purdue defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ryan Browne

Devin Mockobee

Michael Jackson III

Purdue player production

Washington player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Purdue

Washington

Recruiting

Purdue

Washington

Season percentile profiles

Purdue

Washington

Purdue's recent games

vs Indiana

at Washington

vs Ohio State

The coaching staff

Purdue

Washington

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Washington's offense leads its matchup in