Friday, October 16

Purdue

3–3

Washington

3–3

8:00 PM ETRoss-Ade StadiumWest Lafayette, IN

Weather

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 8:00 PM ET · Updated 2:45 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

West Lafayette · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

43%

Purdue win probability

Washington 57%

Washington by 2.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Purdue's case

Purdue's offense leads its matchup in

Purdue's offense is in the 69th percentile for success rate this season. Washington's defense is in the 50th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Washington's answer

Washington's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Washington's offense is in the 43rd percentile for per play this season. Purdue's defense is in the 4th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Purdue a 43% chance to win and predicts Washington by 2.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense: 80th
Washington defense: 70th

Show the underlying numbers

Purdue offensive PPA per play: 0.2580th percentile · #28 nationally
Washington PPA allowed per play: 0.0070th percentile · #39 nationally
Purdue success rate: 46%69th percentile · #44 nationally
Washington success rate allowed: 40%50th percentile · #68 nationally
Purdue points per game: 32.261st percentile · #55 nationally
Washington per game: 22.257th percentile · #60 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Purdue offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 44.1%

Washington defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 40.0%

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense: 43rd
Purdue defense: 4th

Show the underlying numbers

Washington offensive PPA per play: 0.1343rd percentile · #76 nationally
Purdue PPA allowed per play: 0.254th percentile · #130 nationally
Washington success rate: 42%33rd percentile · #93 nationally
Purdue success rate allowed: 46%13th percentile · #120 nationally
Washington points per game: 26.236th percentile · #88 nationally
Purdue points allowed per game: 31.314th percentile · #119 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Washington offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 38.7%

Purdue defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 52.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ryan Browne · 78% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 53 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.2; over 52 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 69%; over 52 attempts with a result

128 of 129 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 116 short · 12 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Purdue offense in 2026

Ryan Browne

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

124/180 · 69% season

Passing yards: 1,549
Touchdowns: 9
Interception: 1

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 10, 2026: 14/24, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Fame Ijeboi

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 117
Rushing yards: 549
Touchdowns: 9

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 10, 2026: 31 carries, 195 yds, 3 TD

Asaad Waseem

WR · 6 games

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 472
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 19 yds, 0 TD

Purdue player tables

Who is producing

Purdue player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Purdue — Passing production
Player
Ryan BrowneQB	6	124 / 180	1,549	8.6	9	1
Evans ChubaQB	2	11 / 14	96	6.9	1	0
Dylan DrennanP	1	1 / 1	47	47.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Washington player tables

Who is producing

Washington player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Washington — Passing production
Player
Demond Williams Jr.QB	6	116 / 174	1,396	8.0	8	3
Elijah BrownQB	2	30 / 42	276	6.6	4	0
Dezmen RoebuckWR	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Purdue's line averages 307.5 lbs against Washington's 277.6 lbs front — an edge of 29.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Purdue OLPurdue OL vs Washington DL	307.5 lbs	277.6 lbs
Washington OLWashington OL vs Purdue DL	321.6 lbs	279.3 lbs

Purdue
Washington

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Purdue

Points per game: 32.2#55 nationally · 61st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 31.3#119 nationally · 14th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 48% of 2025 PPA returns · 59th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 120 of 120 with a class year

Washington

Points per game: 26.2#88 nationally · 36th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 22.2#60 nationally · 57th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 54% of 2025 PPA returns · 64th percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 101 of 101 with a class year

Recruiting

Purdue

2026 signing class · #55 nationally: 61st percentile · 203.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #68 nationally: 51st percentile · 0.00 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #55 nationally: 61st percentile · 698.3

Washington

2026 signing class · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 262.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #19 nationally: 87th percentile · 1.01 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #24 nationally: 83rd percentile · 777.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Purdue: solid line, circles · Washington: dashed line, squares

Purdue

Offense · 2026: 31.3 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.1 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 203.3 pts · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 48% returning · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Washington

Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.2 · 57th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.1 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 262.3 pts · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Purdue's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 68 recorded plays
vs Minnesota
W 41–13
50%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 62 recorded plays
at Illinois
W 24–17
45%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 37 recorded plays
vs Notre Dame
L 10–49
38%
Success rate
−0.11
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Purdue

Head coach: Barry Odom
career +6.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Josh Henson
career +34.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kevin Kane
career +28.5 SP+ defense

Washington

Head coach: Jedd Fisch
career +4.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Ryan Walters
career +19.8 SP+ defense
Photo: Mick Walker, CC BY-SA 4.0

Head-to-head

Washington leads 2–1 since 2000

2025 · Washington 49, Purdue 13
Husky Stadium
2002 · Purdue 34, Washington 24
Neutral site · Sun Bowl
2000 · Washington 34, Purdue 24
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Purdue: 6 games
Washington: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Purdue's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Washington's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Washington defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Purdue defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ryan Browne

Fame Ijeboi

Asaad Waseem

Purdue player production

Washington player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Purdue

Washington

Recruiting

Purdue

Washington

Season percentile profiles

Purdue

Washington

Purdue's recent games

vs Minnesota

at Illinois

vs Notre Dame

The coaching staff

Purdue

Washington

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Purdue's offense leads its matchup in