Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
2–3
vs
Colorado State
2–3
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service
San Marcos · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
74%
Texas State win probability
Colorado State 26%
Texas State by 9.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Texas State's case
Texas State's offense was in the 93rd percentile for per play last season. Colorado State's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Colorado State's answer
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Colorado State unit ranked well below the Texas State unit it faced.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Texas State a 74% chance to win and predicts Texas State by 9.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Brad Jackson · 98% of charted pass attempts
322 of 328 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 270 short · 52 deep · 6 not stated
The Texas State offense in 2025
QB · 13 games
251/352 · 71% season
Last game
Rice · Jan 2, 2026: 17/24, 174 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Rice · Jan 2, 2026: 11 carries, 106 yds, 1 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
Rice · Jan 2, 2026: 4 rec, 87 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB | 13 | 251 / 352 | 3,223 | 9.2 | 21 | 7 |
| Keldric LusterQB | 2 | 1 / 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Beau SparksWR | 1 | 1 / 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Holden GerinerQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson BrousseauQB | 9 | 128 / 201 | 1,354 | 6.7 | 9 | 3 |
| Darius CurryQB | 5 | 70 / 107 | 740 | 6.9 | 5 | 7 |
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB | 3 | 44 / 82 | 488 | 6.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryan HansenPK | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tahj BullockQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tay LanierWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Texas State's line averages 322.7 lbs against Colorado State's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 51.0 lbs a man.
Texas State's line average is based on 17 of 20 linemen.
Colorado State's front average is based on 18 of 23 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Colorado State DL | 322.7 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| Colorado State OLColorado State OL vs Texas State DL | 306.2 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Texas State: solid line, circles · Colorado State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Jan 2
W 41–10
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 60 recorded plays
W 49–26
57%
Success rate
0.56
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 77 recorded plays
W 31–14
47%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense
Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense
Jim Mora
First season as Colorado State's head coach · career +6.2 SP+ overall
Pryce Tracy
no career rating on file
Kenny McClendon
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.9 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2025 full season