Thursday, October 15

Texas State

2–3

Colorado State

2–3

8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX

Weather

Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

San Marcos · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

74%

Texas State win probability

Colorado State 26%

Texas State by 9.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Texas State's case

Texas State's offense leads its matchup in

Texas State's offense is in the 84th percentile for success rate this season. Colorado State's defense is in the 0th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Colorado State's answer

Colorado State's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Colorado State's offense is in the 81st percentile for points per game this season. Texas State's defense is in the 9th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Texas State a 74% chance to win and predicts Texas State by 9.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Texas State has the ball

Texas State offense: 77th
Colorado State defense: 8th

Show the underlying numbers

Texas State offensive per play: 0.2477th percentile · #30 nationally
Colorado State PPA allowed per play: 0.238th percentile · #126 nationally
Texas State success rate: 49%84th percentile · #23 nationally
Colorado State success rate allowed: 52%0th percentile · #138 nationally
Texas State points per game: 34.869th percentile · #41 nationally
Colorado State points allowed per game: 38.64th percentile · #133 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Texas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 46.2%

Colorado State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 56.0%

When Colorado State has the ball

Colorado State offense: 77th
Texas State defense: 34th

Show the underlying numbers

Colorado State offensive PPA per play: 0.2477th percentile · #30 nationally
Texas State PPA allowed per play: 0.1134th percentile · #89 nationally
Colorado State success rate: 45%62nd percentile · #53 nationally
Texas State success rate allowed: 45%19th percentile · #112 nationally
Colorado State points per game: 37.481st percentile · #27 nationally
Texas State points allowed per game: 33.29th percentile · #126 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Colorado State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.45
Rush success: 47.1%

Texas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 43.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Brad Jackson · 90% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 37 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.4; over 37 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 73%; over 37 attempts with a result

92 of 95 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 81 short · 11 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Texas State offense in 2026

Brad Jackson

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

92/138 · 67% season

Passing yards: 1,226
Touchdowns: 13
Interceptions: 5

Last game

San Diego State · Oct 3, 2026: 27/43, 372 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

Torrance Burgess Jr.

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 84
Rushing yards: 614
Touchdown: 1

Last game

San Diego State · Oct 3, 2026: 21 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD

Chris Dawn Jr.

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 24
Receiving yards: 304
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

San Diego State · Oct 3, 2026: 5 rec, 57 yds, 0 TD

Texas State player tables

Who is producing

Texas State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Texas State — Passing production
Player
Brad JacksonQB	5	92 / 138	1,226	8.9	13	5
Gavin ParkhurstQB	2	8 / 9	114	12.7	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Colorado State player tables

Who is producing

Colorado State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Colorado State — Passing production
Player
Ksaan FarrarQB	4	63 / 102	654	6.4	3	2
Hauss HejnyQB	3	47 / 73	619	8.5	10	1
Darius CurryQB	1	6 / 8	70	8.8	1	0
Terrence Smith Jr.WR	2	1 / 2	28	14.0	0	1

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Texas State's line averages 322.7 lbs against Colorado State's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 51.0 lbs a man.

Texas State's line average is based on 17 of 20 linemen.

Colorado State's front average is based on 18 of 23 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Colorado State DL	322.7 lbs	271.7 lbs
Colorado State OLColorado State OL vs Texas State DL	306.2 lbs	267.1 lbs

Texas State
Colorado State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Texas State

Points per game: 34.8#41 nationally · 69th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 33.2#126 nationally · 9th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 76% of 2025 PPA returns · 89th percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Colorado State

Points per game: 37.4#27 nationally · 81st percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 38.6#133 nationally · 4th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 40% of 2025 PPA returns · 50th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 161 of 161 with a class year

Recruiting

Texas State

2026 signing class · #74 nationally: 47th percentile · 188.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #88 nationally: 36th percentile · −0.46 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #82 nationally: 41st percentile · 624.8

Colorado State

2026 signing class · #73 nationally: 47th percentile · 188.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #78 nationally: 44th percentile · −0.34 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #75 nationally: 46th percentile · 640.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Texas State: solid line, circles · Colorado State: dashed line, squares

Texas State

Offense · 2026: 33.2 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.2 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 188.3 pts · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 76% returning · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Colorado State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.0 · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.7 · 8th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 188.8 pts · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Texas State's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 104 recorded plays
at San Diego State
L 29–31
48%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 40 recorded plays
vs Incarnate Word
vs FCS
W 63–10
50%
Success rate
0.86
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 71 recorded plays
vs North Texas
W 49–35
59%
Success rate
0.53
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Texas State

Head coach: G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense; Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense; Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense

Colorado State

Head coach: Jim Mora
First season as Colorado State's head coach · career +6.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Pryce Tracy
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Kenny McClendon
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.9 SP+ defense; Tyson Summers
career +29.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0; Tyson Summers (3rd season; first 5 games)
career +29.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Texas State: 5 games
Colorado State: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Texas State's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Colorado State's offense leads its matchup in scoring

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Texas State has the ball

Texas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Colorado State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Colorado State has the ball

Colorado State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Texas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Brad Jackson

Torrance Burgess Jr.

Chris Dawn Jr.

Texas State player production

Colorado State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Texas State

Colorado State

Recruiting

Texas State

Colorado State

Season percentile profiles

Texas State

Colorado State

Texas State's recent games

at San Diego State

vs Incarnate Word

vs North Texas

The coaching staff

Texas State

Colorado State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Texas State's offense leads its matchup in