Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Old Dominion
2–4
7:30 PM ETS.B. Ballard StadiumNorfolk, VA
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM ET · Updated 12:47 PM ET · National Weather Service
Norfolk · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
50%
Georgia Southern win probability
Old Dominion 50%
Georgia Southern by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Old Dominion's case
Old Dominion's offense was in the 80th percentile for per play last season. Georgia Southern's defense was in the 3rd percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Georgia Southern's answer
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Old Dominion's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Old Dominion a 50% chance to win and predicts Georgia Southern by 0.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
JC French IV · 91% of charted pass attempts
356 of 364 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 310 short · 46 deep · 8 not stated
The Georgia Southern offense in 2025
QB · 13 games
249/390 · 64% season
Last game
App State · Dec 29, 2025: 18/25, 171 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
App State · Dec 29, 2025: 11 carries, 152 yds, 0 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
App State · Dec 29, 2025: 2 rec, 30 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC FrenchQB | 13 | 249 / 390 | 2,924 | 7.5 | 20 | 8 |
| Turner HeltonQB | 3 | 14 / 26 | 74 | 2.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Weston BryanQB | 7 | 7 / 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dalen CobbWR | 2 | 1 / 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 1 |
| OJ ArnoldRB | 2 | 2 / 2 | 85 | 42.5 | 2 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephQB | 12 | 173 / 288 | 2,619 | 9.1 | 21 | 10 |
| Quinn HenicleQB | 5 | 17 / 40 | 184 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan HuffQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Georgia Southern's line averages 293.2 lbs against Old Dominion's 267.7 lbs front — an edge of 25.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern OLGeorgia Southern OL vs Old Dominion DL | 293.2 lbs | 267.7 lbs |
| Old Dominion OLOld Dominion OL vs Georgia Southern DL | 303.1 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Georgia Southern: solid line, circles · Old Dominion: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 29
W 29–10
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 89 recorded plays
W 24–19
46%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 29 recorded plays
L 10–45
34%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Ryan Aplin
career +24.6 SP+ offense
Mike Mutz
no career rating on file
Ricky Rahne
career −7.8 SP+ overall
Kody Cook
no career rating on file
Blake Seiler
career +28.5 SP+ defense
2025 · Old Dominion 45, Georgia Southern 10
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2024 · Old Dominion 47, Georgia Southern 19
S.B. Ballard Stadium
2023 · Old Dominion 20, Georgia Southern 17
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2022 · Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 23
S.B. Ballard Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season